Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Louisiana

[ElectionsGuy]

Two votes. One for a rating (Safe D, Lean R, Toss-Up, etc.) and one for a prediction of who will win (Clinton, Trump, or Other).

Note: If you think Johnson/Other will win a state, just vote 'Other' and don't vote for a rating.

Update/vote in these threads if you haven't already! There's no time limit and you can still affect the overall result:

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Ratings

Safe Clinton: 92
Likely Clinton: 0
Lean Clinton: 9
Toss-Up: 35
Lean Trump: 27
Likely Trump: 14
Safe Trump: 33

Clinton: 101
Trump: 74
Toss-Up: 35

Predictions

Clinton: 136
Trump: 74

Louisiana: Safe R, 58-40 Trump.

[ElectionsGuy]

Lean R

Trump 52%
Clinton 46%
Others 2%

Louisiana went for Clinton 52-40 in 1996.  What has changed since then is that the Cajun Catholics have swung to the GOP; prior to that, they had become the key swing voter group at the Presidential level and the folks that kept local politics in Louisiana Democratic.

I predict something of a comeback for Hillary amongst the Cajun Catholics.  Not enough to win, but enough to improve.

I don't really see a reason for a comeback. Much of cajun country is rural, not very high income or education levels, and pretty socially conservative.

[ElectionsGuy]

Lean R

Trump 52%
Clinton 46%
Others 2%

Louisiana went for Clinton 52-40 in 1996.  What has changed since then is that the Cajun Catholics have swung to the GOP; prior to that, they had become the key swing voter group at the Presidential level and the folks that kept local politics in Louisiana Democratic.

I predict something of a comeback for Hillary amongst the Cajun Catholics.  Not enough to win, but enough to improve.

I don't really see a reason for a comeback. Much of cajun country is rural, not very high income or education levels, and pretty socially conservative.

Edwards made good inroads with Cajun country, doing decently well on the coast and in the Lafayette area. Clinton might do marginally better than Obama with us coonasses, but it won't be enough to really make a difference.

Edwards is nowhere near Clinton though. He's actually conservative on the issues that he needs to be.
Although valid comparisons can be made between Vitter and Trump.