NATIONAL GOVERNOR/OTHER RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Wow, the voters of California voted the same way as me on five out of nine propositions.

     Bizarre side note: the Libertarians received the highest third-party share in four out of eight partisan statewide races in California (including Senator) (Greens got three & AIP got one). Curiously, the Libertarian candidate for Lt. Governor received almost 6% of the vote.

You must be doing something wrong if a majority of Californians vote with you on a majority of the Propositions. For me, it was 2 out of 9 this election.  I once had a 0 out of 4.

     I was expecting something around 2 out of 9, to be honest. I was particularly amused by Prop 20 passing & Prop 27 failing. I would have figured the opportunity to put into place a Democratic gerrymander would have had more appeal than it did.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Apparently there is an error at New Haven.
If we are to believe AP, there were 26000 votes for senator but only 9000 for governor. Obviously that's impossible, hence the confusion.

[Joe Republic]

Jesus Christ, Connecticut.  Even Florida was able to do a better job counting its votes than you!

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

So, it appears Vermont gubernatorial is going to the legislature, with no one reaching a majority.

Dubie should just concede, just as Racine did, when he lost pv to Douglas in 2002, even if both fell below 50%.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Jesus Christ, Connecticut.  Even Florida was able to do a better job counting its votes than you!

The media screwed up their calling of a lot of races. GA-02 was called for the Republican. Whoops, the Democrat won. It looks like the same thing probably happened with the California Attorney General race.

[Landslide Lyndon]

FWIW, Debicella conceded to Himes even though he is leading with 84% of the vote in. I guess that means something.

[Lief 🗽]

So, it appears Vermont gubernatorial is going to the legislature, with no one reaching a majority.

Dubie should just concede, just as Racine did, when he lost pv to Douglas in 2002, even if both fell below 50%.

Dubie has conceded.

[Lief 🗽]

Awesome.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think that a moderate Democrat will be better to win than a liberal like Brown and McCaskill. I am hoping Webb pulls it off. But the way Fisher and Carnahan went down and Feingold I think Brown, both Nelsons, Kohl and Mccaskill are gonna go down. I see five losses right now for the Dems.

[Јas]

Almost certainly not the place, but hey - sue/infract/move/delete/ignore as appropriate...

Dead Democrat wins re-election to CA State Senate from 28th District - NBC LA

[JohnnyLongtorso]

FWIW, Debicella conceded to Himes even though he is leading with 84% of the vote in. I guess that means something.

The only town that's left in CT-04 is Bridgeport, which will go heavily for Himes. I believe Debicella acknowledged that in his concession.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Here I really fail to understand.

They just un-called Vermont despite the fact Shumlin leads by 1.5 points with 97% reporting. And MN and IL still aren't called despite all the votes have been counted. What the hell does it mean ?

Also, it seems that Foley is bound to win in Connecticut, and OR has been called for Kitzhaber.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Vermont goes to the state legislature if nobody wins a majority, which seems likely. They'll pick Shumlin, because he got the most votes.

MN and IL are close enough to require recounts, so they're probably not going to call them until that happens.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Also, it seems that Foley is bound to win in Connecticut...

Declaring anyone the winner there is premature, since there are still a number of outstanding questions. The first of which being: Why did the CT Secretary of State declare Malloy the winner based on unofficial numbers which she refuses to release?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Because, as we all know, Susan Bysiewicz is an idiot. "I'm running for Governor, no, I'm running for Attorney General, oh wait, I'm not qualified!"

[Eraserhead]

It's kind of interesting how there was virtually no racial difference in support for Prop 19. 47% of blacks, 46% of whites and 45% of hispanics supported it. Only Asians were somewhat different with only 39% of them supporting it but their sample was very small in the exit so who can say how accurate that even is...

[??????????]

Well, Badger, after you continuing to insult me, I now have come to the conclusion that you're not worth bothering with. I tried to be friendly with you and respectful, if you want to keep insulting me and lying about me on this board I'm putting you on ignore, where you belong.  I know the Mods will allow these insults to continue uncorrected if they are done by left wingers.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

GOP picks up 13 seats in the TN State house.  Rural democrats almost completely wiped out.  That's the good news.  

The bad news is that urban Republicans (candidates like Shelton, Cook, and Dominy in Shelby and Davidson counties) didn't make any pick-ups, meaning that the state's most populous counties have cast their lots with the losing team.

The GOP took TN-60- retiree Ben West's seat in Davidson County. Gotto over Sam Coleman.

I guess I was actually trying to draw a distinction between a white-urban and suburban district and making note that we didn't pick up any white-urban districts.

Basically I'm just bitter that the majority caucus will only have one member who resides within the Memphis city limits, and half his district is in the suburb of Germantown.  Memphis Republicans at least made a valiant attempt at gaining relevant representation for us, but unfortunately the voters betrayed their own interests.  And what did they get?  Memphians now make up 1/3rd of Tennessee's newly-irrelevant House Democratic caucus.

More Haslams and fewer Campfields and you might get your wish.

Agreed.   But if people in Memphis and Nashville refuse to participate in how our state is governed - by voting Democrat, then moderate and sane voices will be squelched out by the Campfields.  We need to bolster what few moderates there are in the Republican caucus by sending more allies to help them.

Clay Shelton isn't just a moderate, he actually had the chutzpah to stand up in front of a local Republican club meeting and talk about how our Party needed to support "LGBT rights".  I just about walked out of a campaign meeting because he said something that was too liberal for *me*

[Hash]

Dubie conceded in VT, and Vermont politics are way too clean and amicable for Dubie to be a jerk and ask for a major recount or something.

[angus]

Then why did you vote no for retention. Baring a majorly unpopular decision (e.g. legalizing gay marriage), a no vote is usually reserved if the judge is caught in a scandal, or general contrariness.

I voted not to retain any of the judges, including the three under discussion.  On my ballot, there were nine in all.  I just went down the list.  No. No.  No...  I was in a very anti-incumbent mood.  Except for Grassley and Culver, I voted against all incumbents. 

It's a bit disingenuous to present an hypothesis as a conclusion.  The talking heads are saying that the judges were "fired because of their positions on gay marriage" without any evidence of that beside the ideas floating around in their heads.  For example, I could note that the Iowa constitutional convention question went down by a 2-to-1 margin on Tuesday.  The ballot read, “Shall there be a convention to revise the Constitution, and propose amendment or amendments to same?”  At a constitutional convention, Iowa voters would have had the chance to review previously rejected bills, such as HJR 6, which said that “Marriage between one man and one woman shall be the only legal union valid or recognized in this state.”  In fact, both in-state and out-of-state advocacy groups pushed the constitutional convention vote as a way of trumping the gay marriage decision.  But the initiative failed, didn't it.  And not narrowly.  It was like 67% to 33%.  So *clearly* the voters of Iowa don't want to change the gay marriage law. 

Of course, I haven't made such cause-and-effect claims.  And even if I did make the claim that the overwhelming NO vote on the constitutional convention question means that the people are comfortable with the gay marriage law, I would have made it clear that it was an hypothesis.  I would say that "I think that it's because..."  I would not present it as a conclusion.  I think these articles claiming that "people fired the judges because they don't like gay marriage" is just that:  a hunch.  It's not an unreasonable one, by the way.  But it is misleading to report it as fact, the way many news outlets are doing.

Now, if you really want to parse the numbers, note that in a normal year, supreme court justices are retained by about 75%.  This time the retentions were around 45%.  That means that AT MOST, 30% of the voters wanted to "fire the judges because they don't like gay marriage."  Even then, it's still just stating what you believe.  And you should make it clear that you're stating what you believe, rather than stating a demonstrable fact.  Even that hypothesis could be demonstrated to be false, though.  I assure you that I am among that 30% and I didn't base my vote on gay marriage.  I'm sure there are others.  It's a very anti-incumbent year.  Even Culver went down.  So even that more narrow (and more defensible) hypothesis would be a mistaken one.

Actually, this is part of a bigger issue.  One of critical thinking.  I bitch about all this often.  I usually blame the schools.  But what are the schools, if not reflections of our own priorities, or lack thereof.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Vermont goes to the state legislature if nobody wins a majority, which seems likely. They'll pick Shumlin, because he got the most votes.

...and because the VT legislature is democratic. So, what are Dubie's chances ? One in one trilion ?

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Oh damn...
But both Quinn and Dayton have a 0.5% lead in the final count. I doubt such leads can be easily overcome in a recount.

Also, it seems that Foley is bound to win in Connecticut...

Declaring anyone the winner there is premature, since there are still a number of outstanding questions. The first of which being: Why did the CT Secretary of State declare Malloy the winner based on unofficial numbers which she refuses to release?

Wow... No idea how that happened, but Malloy has retaken the lead in Connecticut, with a 0.4% margin and 99% reporting. I really fail to understand how he did, since he was trailing heavily with few votes left in New Haven County. Still, all the remaining votes are in Fairfield county, which backed Foley. So, nothing is done...

[Eraserhead]

The state legislature would have voted Dubie in if he got more votes regardless of party affiliation.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The state legislature would have voted Dubie in if he got more votes regardless of party affiliation.

We'll never know anywyas.


...

Well, I wanted to be sure, so I did a few maths and found that Shumlin's lead is expected to decrease by 509 votes. He currently leads by 3494 votes so he would end up with 2985, which makes 1.3%. He has definitely won.

[Skill and Chance]

I think that a moderate Democrat will be better to win than a liberal like Brown and McCaskill. I am hoping Webb pulls it off. But the way Fisher and Carnahan went down and Feingold I think Brown, both Nelsons, Kohl and Mccaskill are gonna go down. I see five losses right now for the Dems.

Obama could save Sherrod Brown, Webb, Kohl (or a Democratic replacement), and Bill Nelson by winning their states in 2012.  Ben Nelson is gone barring a return to the 2006 environment, and McCaskill has little hope.  I think Webb is the best positioned of all of these.  He is conservative enough that he might be able to hold his seat even if Obama loses re-election.  We will have to see who is running in Wisconsin.  Maybe Feingold will try to resurrect himself if Kohl retires?  If the seat is open, it is obviously more vulnerable.  NJ could also fall in a GOP leaning year.

On the Republican side, Scott Brown has to be more than a bit worried after what happened in Massachusetts on Tuesday.  Simply being Joe Schmoe (D) was sufficient to win any of the statewide offices on Tuesday, even during a national Republican wave.  And to top things off, he will be facing a presidential electorate in 2012.  The NV GOP had better be searching for someone good to primary Ensign in 2012.  After Reid's 50% win, he wouldn't have a prayer in the general.  Also, Snowe needs to start singing LePage's praises from the mountaintops ASAP.

     

[Hash]

Wow... No idea how that happened, but Malloy has retaken the lead in Connecticut, with a 0.4% margin and 99% reporting. I really fail to understand how he did, since he was trailing heavily with few votes left in New Haven County. Still, all the remaining votes are in Fairfield county, which backed Foley. So, nothing is done...

Fairfield Co includes Bridgeport, where afaik most of the outstanding votes are, and which is also a Democratic stronghold.