2011 State Elections in Germany

[Tender Branson]

New Emnid/Focus poll for BW:

34% CDU
32% Greens
20% SPD
  4% Pirates
  4% FDP
  3% Left
  3% Others

Best result so far for the Greens ever in any state and a 52-34 majority for the Green-SPD government.

[You kip if you want to...]

Apart from the general awfulness of their ideals, why are the FDP so hated/unpopular?

[Colbert]

mmm.... crisis?

[Antonio the Sixth]

It was explained one page ago.

But I don't understand why they are so unpopular. I was under the impression that Merkel was wayyy more "centrist" than any previous CDU leader and had opened up a large vacuum on the right. I would have thought that if anything this would be the perfect time for the FDP to increase support since they are essentially the only rightwing party in Germany! - I suppose the only explanation might be that by being in coalition with the CDU they have lost any identity of their own and have almost nothing to show the people who voted for them...kind of like the Li bDems in the UK who also face obliteration.

^^ Yeah, that's it.

And the truth is that most of the younger FDP politicians simply suck at governing. Problem is that most leadership positions in the party are currently filled by those younger politicians.

Ah well, and there was this Mövenpick scandal earlier during this administration which reinforced the FDP's image that the party is for hire for any company who can afford to buy legislation from the FDP. They never really recovered from that, I suppose.

In short, the FDP's image is that they're incompetent, corrupt and that they're not keeping their campaign promises. This doesn't leave many redeeming qualities.

[Peter the Lefty]

A new TNS Emnid poll:
CDU: 33%
SPD: 30%
Greens: 16%
Left: 8%
Pirates: 7%
FDP: 3%

[DL]

One thing no one has mentioned is what role "strategic voting" by CDU voters may or may not play in the next German elections. Right now polls have FDP support as low as 3% (yay!). In the past when the FDP has flirted with falling below the 5% cut-off their bacon was saved by having a chunk of CDU supporters vote FDP to save them from being knocked out of the Bundestag. The problem is that as the gap between the CDU and SPD gets narrower and narrower its getting to a point where if enough CDU supporters were to vote strategically for the FDP - the CDU could fall behind the SPD as the biggest party meaning that Merkel cannot be chancellor in any "grand coalition" - that would go to whoever is the SPD leader.

So, I suspect that CDUers will be very reluctant to help the FDP next time and that the FDP could get killed off as a party.

[Peter the Lefty]

One thing no one has mentioned is what role "strategic voting" by CDU voters may or may not play in the next German elections. Right now polls have FDP support as low as 3% (yay!). In the past when the FDP has flirted with falling below the 5% cut-off their bacon was saved by having a chunk of CDU supporters vote FDP to save them from being knocked out of the Bundestag. The problem is that as the gap between the CDU and SPD gets narrower and narrower its getting to a point where if enough CDU supporters were to vote strategically for the FDP - the CDU could fall behind the SPD as the biggest party meaning that Merkel cannot be chancellor in any "grand coalition" - that would go to whoever is the SPD leader.

So, I suspect that CDUers will be very reluctant to help the FDP next time and that the FDP could get killed off as a party.

YAY!  I just with the SPD would nominate someone respectable.  Are there any major figures, particularly Minister-Presidents, who lie on the party's left wing (besides Wowereit) who could be potential Chancellor-candidates?  I have the "anyone but Steinbrück" mentality at this point, and given that Wowereit is now in a coalition with the CDU, he's killed off his chances. 

[republicanism]

YAY!  I just with the SPD would nominate someone respectable.  Are there any major figures, particularly Minister-Presidents, who lie on the party's left wing (besides Wowereit) who could be potential Chancellor-candidates?

 

No.

I have the "anyone but Steinbrück" mentality at this point, and given that Wowereit is now in a coalition with the CDU, he's killed off his chances. 

Not so sure about the latter.
Some forces on the traditional right wing of the party in West Germany based most of their ressentiment against Wowereit on the fact that he installed a government with the former SED. In Berlin of all places.

But as I already posted once in this forum on this issue: Wowereit hasn't make the slightest move to compete for the nomination. And it is impossible to say, for me at least, what he will do a year from now when it all starts getting serious. I don't think that the new coalition would be a handicap for him.
 
Keep in mind that most voters outside of Berlin do not care (or do not know) who is the junior partner of Wowereit is.

[Peter the Lefty]

YAY!  I just with the SPD would nominate someone respectable.  Are there any major figures, particularly Minister-Presidents, who lie on the party's left wing (besides Wowereit) who could be potential Chancellor-candidates?

 

No.

I have the "anyone but Steinbrück" mentality at this point, and given that Wowereit is now in a coalition with the CDU, he's killed off his chances. 

Not so sure about the latter.
Some forces on the traditional right wing of the party in West Germany based most of their ressentiment against Wowereit on the fact that he installed a government with the former SED. In Berlin of all places.

But as I already posted once in this forum on this issue: Wowereit hasn't make the slightest move to compete for the nomination. And it is impossible to say, for me at least, what he will do a year from now when it all starts getting serious. I don't think that the new coalition would be a handicap for him.
 
Keep in mind that most voters outside of Berlin do not care (or do not know) who is the junior partner of Wowereit is.

Thank you.  I guess it's either Steinmeier, Gabriel, or (rolls eyes) Steinbrück at this point.  Darn it.  I guess they're all better than Merkel, but the one I have the most respect for, Gabriel, is almost completely unelectable.

[Tender Branson]

Time to predict the S21 referendum for tomorrow:

58.3% No
41.7% Yes

Turnout: 59.6%

[Tender Branson]

Turnout is higher in Stuttgart than it was during the state elections.

But it is lower elsewhere. So yeah, 55-60% turnout should be OK.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout in Stuttgart still very similar to the state election turnout, roughly 47% @ 2pm.

No word about other cities or regions for 2pm.

[Tender Branson]

With a projected turnout of 55% statewide, the Yes-side needs about 61% to succeed.

So, highly unlikely (unless all the polls were wrong) ...

[Franzl]

I suppose there's no Hochrechnung to be found?

[Tender Branson]

I suppose there's no Hochrechnung to be found?

I guess not, but it will fail (constitutionally) anyway.

Turnout is something like 55% statewide, which means that out of 7.63 million voters, about 4.20 million will have voted. The 1/3 quorum stands at 2.544 million valid "Yes" votes.

Which further means that out of the 4.20 million votes (out of which 4.12 million should be valid votes) about 61.8% need to vote "Yes" for the measure to be accepted. Which is almost not possible.

The more important questions are A) does it get a majority and B) how is the vote in Stuttgart.

[Tender Branson]

Mappish results should be coming in here in the next 2 hours:

http://www.statistik-bw.de/Wahlen/Volksabstimmung_2011/jMap

or here:

http://www.statistik-bw.de/Wahlen/Volksabstimmung_2011

...

The Greens got 1.2 million votes in the state election, so more than 2 million "Yes" votes would be good, 2 million "Yes" votes and a majority on the referendum even better.

Considering that only the Greens support the "Yes", while SPD, CDU and FDP are against - it would point to good Green mobilization even after the historical state election win.

But still, I expect the BW people to say: Hey, we already sent the CDU into the desert for the first time since WW2, and we also don't want to get out of this project because the compensation costs wanted by the German Rail if the "Yes" wins outweigh the state funding costs.

[minionofmidas]

Slow as hell, that official site. Apparently one district in already, and voting 59% No (ie, Yes) at 37% turnout.
Ah, and now i see where that is from. City of Pforzheim. That don't bode too well.

[Tender Branson]

The city of Pforzheim is already counted:

40.9% Yes
59.1% No

The Greens got 18.7% there in the state election, about 5.5% less than statewide.

So, the Yes-side could end up at about 45-50% statewide, but turnout is awful.

[Tender Branson]

Man, that Statistik BW website suxx ...

[Tender Branson]

Baden-Baden is in, Greens got 26% there - Yes has 46.4%

Looks more like 45% for "Yes" now statewide.

[minionofmidas]

Man, that Statistik BW website suxx ...

Some of these state pages seem to be optimized for occasional people wandering in looking for one of many statistics on offer... and to be completely overwhelmed on election day because they're not built for traffic at all. Election after election after election. It's like they don't know what the internet is being used for.

[Tender Branson]

Man, that Statistik BW website suxx ...

Some of these state pages seem to be optimized for occasional people wandering in looking for one of many statistics on offer... and to be completely overwhelmed on election day because they're not built for traffic at all. Election after election after election. It's like they don't know what the internet is being used for.

Yeah, that's bad.

Not even the Stuttgart site works ...

[minionofmidas]

Neckar-Odenwald, 38% turnout, 36% yes
Ortenau, 38% turnout, 44% yes
Karlsruhe, 41% turnout, 54% yes

This is so over.

[Tender Branson]

Isn't Odenwald where Franzl is from ? Just on the Hessian side ?

[Franzl]

Isn't Odenwald where Franzl is from ? Just on the Hessian side ?

Yes, more or less. Barely Kr. Darmstadt-Dieburg, but almost Odenwaldkreis. Difference is the Hessian side is an SPD area, and the B-W side much more conservative.