2011 State Elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

Ugh, the nuclear fearmongering worked.

That's a complete misrepresentation of the dynamics involved. Unless maybe you're thinking of nuclear fearmongering 25 years ago.
(Not coincidentally, current official platforms of Greens, SPD and Left on the issue are identical, SPD and Left added lotsa posters on the issue in the final stages of the campaign.)

What befell the CDU and FDP here is better described as an events-driven loss of narrative control.

[Хahar 🤔]

Ugh, the nuclear fearmongering worked.

That's a complete misrepresentation of the dynamics involved. Unless maybe you're thinking of nuclear fearmongering 25 years ago.
(Not coincidentally, current official platforms of Greens, SPD and Left on the issue are identical, SPD and Left added lotsa posters on the issue in the final stages of the campaign.)

What befell the CDU and FDP here is better described as an events-driven loss of narrative control.

Ah, well, I'll not pretend to have any understanding of the forces at play here. Would you like to correct my misrepresentation?

[minionofmidas]

I still can't find Frankfurt precinct results.

Overall "trend" (ie unmodified ballots only) result for Frankfurt

CDU 31.7 (-4.3)
Greens 27.6 (+12.3)
SPD 20.1 (-3.9)
Left 5.3 (-1.3)
FW 3.7 (+0.9)
FDP 3.6 (-2.9)
FAG 1.3 (-2.5)
Pirates 1.8 (+1.8)
NPD 1.3 (+0.1)
Ökolinx 1.2 (-)
REP 0.9 (-0.6)
others 0.4 or less

If past elections are any indication, expect the CDU to end up ~30 and the Greens at ~29.5 to 30.
Minor others will go up, some might end up getting a seat yet. Ditfurth might drag her No.2 onto the council (who's also her significant other).
Disastrous SPD result.
Are people finally aquiescing in the by-now unstoppable, wholly unnecessary airport enlargement, or is that another casualty of "OMG I gotta vote Green coz events serve as a powerful reminder to me that I've always been worried about Nuclear"? Bit of both, probably.
Oh yeah, on trend results the Greens are strongest party in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th Ortsbezirke - and they're quite narrowly behind in several others.

District councils and five indy city councils, summed for Hesse

CDU 33.4 (-5.1)
SPD 30.9 (-3.8)
Greens 20.0 (+10.8)
FW 5.3 (+0.1)
FDP 3.5 (-2.3)
Left and Left-affiliated joint or indy slates 3.4 (+0.3)
Pirates 1.2 (+1.2)
etc
turnout 47.7 (+1.9)

Referendum ended up at 70.0% yes.

[minionofmidas]

Ugh, the nuclear fearmongering worked.

That's a complete misrepresentation of the dynamics involved. Unless maybe you're thinking of nuclear fearmongering 25 years ago.
(Not coincidentally, current official platforms of Greens, SPD and Left on the issue are identical, SPD and Left added lotsa posters on the issue in the final stages of the campaign.)

What befell the CDU and FDP here is better described as an events-driven loss of narrative control.

Ah, well, I'll not pretend to have any understanding of the forces at play here. Would you like to correct my misrepresentation?

I already tried with the post you quoted.
The Greens didn't go "OMG there's a nuclear accident at Fukushima, we must play that to the utmost". In fact, they didn't. It's just that everybody - every party's voters - suddenly started caring over that issue first and foremost. (Which I agree is not... entirely rational. Especially in municipal elections. Or even in Rhineland-Pfalz which has no nuclear power plants - that said, big Green gains were always on the cards there anyways.) Which is why it's relevant that SPD and Left didn't benefit at all despite being in full agreement - they're not commonly associated with the issue, and they're considered less credible on the issue.*
That's what all the campaign workers say - "noone wanted to hear about our achievements anymore, everybody was asking about radioactivity".
The other thing is of course that the CDU and FDP reacted with open panic and mass flip-flopping (that noone found credible). Which obviously feeds the panic. And that they'd been ramming pro-nuclear law changes down our throats just before.

*Though, despite a wing of the party trying hard to sabotage it from the inside at the time, Schröder's Nuclear Exit Strategy is feted by SPD insiders today as one of his government's prouder achievements. Honestly feted - Gabriel is just as anti-nuclear as the Greens, and probably always has been.
And of course, the Left's positions on environmental and societal issues are identical to the Greens' anyways. It's just that the party leadership doesn't care. Which is why they're identical to the Greens' - the leadership let the people who cared write the plank. The people who cared tend to be disappointed ex-Greens. This makes Wahlomat tests somewhat worthless, as it's a large part of the reason almost any Green voter get high Left results too.

[minionofmidas]

NOW it's time for the champagne.

CDU 60
Greens 36
SPD 35
FDP 7

no worries.

138 seats ? I thought there were 139.

There are 120 plus what's needed to get things proportional. The problem is that, unlike in other states, the Ausgleich is done separately in four regions, which basically works as a small bonus for the largest party.

Oh, I see. A uselessly complicated systems that partly screw proportionality.

But after all, that's fine, nationwide proportional would just have switched a CDU seat to the FDP.

The CDU won 60 direct seats, so that can't be right.

[minionofmidas]

Fun fact: should the 26-vote margin in Tübingen evaporate & flip on final results (as opposed to the provisional final result we have now), CDU and Greens will both get one extra seat, changing nothing, really.

Also, had they still used the law as it was til 2006 (same as now but D'Hondt instead of Sainte-Lague) green-red would have a single seat's majority.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The Greens in Germany seem borderline Communist

[minionofmidas]

Well, here's an excellent FDP result! Frankfurt suburb of Steinbach. "Crunchiest" place to the northwest.

CDU   28,5   (-18.2)
SPD   26,1   (-3.6)
FDP   18,3   (+8.
GRÜNE   27,1   (+13.0)

[minionofmidas]

The Greens in Germany seem borderline Communist

Communists have this bizarre fetish for large powerful antidemocratic quango-operated industrial combines that is a prerequisite to liking nuclear as an energy source. See Xahar.
You must mean teh Greens in Germany seem borderline Anarchist.

[Tender Branson]

Speaking of Tübingen, the district "Französisches Viertel":

57.0% Greens
21.5% SPD
  8.4% Left
  8.2% CDU
  2.1% Pirates
  2.1% FDP
  0.7% Others



What makes this place 90% Left ?

[minionofmidas]

Half student housing in the former French Army barracks, half brand new, not posh, owner occupied apartments. Add the dynamics of this election, and the general studenty-lefty ambience of Tübingen town.

[minionofmidas]

Two notes on Black-Green coalitions. I have stated too many times before that they can work only when they are conceived as a variant form of a Grand Coalition, and even then they'll cost the Greens votes.
I think even Frankfurt's Black-Green coalition, which was conceived as such and was reasonably successful (much more so than Hamburg, on both counts) was still costing the Greens votes this election. Fukushima gains papered that over somewhat, but, really, at 20% statewide the Greens have absolutely no business coming anything but a solid first place in Frankfurt. They polled 37% (on unchanged ballots alone) in Darmstadt, surely 27% in Frankfurt is low by that standard.
But perhaps the more interesting - and more novel - line of thought is, when the Greens successfully take the SPD's place in Grand Coalitions, where does that leave the SPD? What are its options, besides hoping for a breakdown in CDU-Green relations? What does it stand for? How does it campaign? If the Left weren't firmly established yet, it might try to, as it were, be the Left, but now even that's not going to work - people would find the original more credible.
The Frankfurt situation leaves the SPD in a horrible trap, only partly of its own making. Its continued failures are not solely the result of the local SPD's undeniable incompetence.

[minionofmidas]

Yah, looks like they never intended to release the partial count by precinct or neighborhood to the public. We'll get the final results broken down as soon as they're available.
I think they did the same thing in 2006, actually.

[minionofmidas]

Darmstadt is already pretty far with its final counting, and if I understood things right Kassel is actually finished already.
It seems that, contrary to past elections, the Greens are losing on the final count vs. the trend. By quite a bit.
Not really surprising if you think about it, but I hadn't been expecting it. Green casual supporters far more motivated than other parties' casual supporters translates as more uninformed Green voters (as a share of the electorate) than usual, which in turn translates as more straight ticket voters.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, final counts are in for Wiesbaden, Hanau and Bad Homburg, and they confirm that.

format: Party share (change on 2006) seats (change) change on unchanged ballots tally

Wiesbaden
CDU 32.7 (-3.5) 27 (-2) -0.8
SPD 28.9 (-1.3) 23 (-2) +1.8
Greens 19.1 (+7.0) 16 (+6) -1.8
FDP 5.0 (-4.0) 4 (-3) +0.4
Left 4.1 (+0.8) 3 (0) 0
BLW 3.8 (+0.1) 3 (0) +0.3
REP 2.2 (-2.8) 2 (-2) -0.3
Pirates 2.1 (+2.1) 2 (+2) -0.1
FW 1.2 (+1.2) 1 (+1) 0
three others without seats

Hanau
SPD 36.5 (+7.2) 22 (+5) +2.7
CDU 27.0 (-2.8) 16 (-2) -2.2
Greens 15.2 (+6.9) 9 (+4) -1.0
BfH 7.1 (-1.9) 4 (-1) +0.1
Left 5.3 (+0.1) 3 (0) +0.2
FDP 4.7 (-7.2) 3 (-4) +0.7
REP 4.2 (-2.4) 2 (-2) -0.5

Bad Homburg
CDU 40.3 (-1.9) 20 (-1) +2.2
Greens 23.6 (+12.4) 12 (+6) -4.9
SPD 14.6 (-2.3) 7 (-1) +0.5
FDP 7.1 (-3.6) 3 (-2) +1.2
BLB 6.1 (-2.5) 3 (-1) +0.7
NHU 4.7 (-1.6) 2 (-1) +1.1
Left 2.0 (+0.2) 1 (0) -0.3
REP 1.7 (-0.6) 1 (0) -0.3

The Homburg preliminary results look like political pornography in retrospect... Of course, it's still a huge swing. But that's not surprising given the political earthquake of May 2009 (when Green Michael Korwisi won the direct election for Lord Mayor, an office the CDU had held since 1948.)

[minionofmidas]

Similarly in Vilbel. The CDU majority has been broken, but they have a choice of FDP or FW to make up the missing votes. On the preliminary results, green-red had seemed possible.

[minionofmidas]

The Kassel result on the city website looks really final, complete with individual votes; so even though it's not listed on the state site yet, I'll take it.

Well, I'll be. Now it's up on the state website, and it's different.

Kassel
SPD 36.3 (-3.5) 26 (-2) -0.3
Greens 24.9 (+9.5) 18 (+7) -0.8
CDU 24.2 (-4.9) 17 (-4) +0.3
Left 6.7 (-0.1) 5 (0) +0.4
Pirates 2.7 (+2.7) 2 (+2) -0.1
FDP 2.5 (-3.0) 2 (-2) +0.3
FW 1.8 (0) 1 (0) -0.1
AUF 0.8 (-0.9) 0 (-1) +0.2

Really unlucky for AUF.

Wetzlar
SPD 34.9 (-4.2) 21 (-2) -1.0
CDU 29.5 (-6.5) 17 (-4) +1.7
Greens 14.7 (+6.7) 9 (+4) -3.0
FWG 9.2 (-0.9) 5 (-1) +1.6
FDP 7.6 (+0.8) 5 (+1) +1.4
Left 4.1 (+4.1) 2 (+2) -0.7

[minionofmidas]

Well the Greens have really become the largest party on Seeheim-Jugenheim council (suburb of Darmstadt.) 35.9%, vs 32.4% CDU, 26.6% SPD, 5.0% FDP. Looks a contender for best result statewide.
Oh, and the SPD is largest party in Sulzbach. LOL. (Well, by votes. SPD and CDU are tied on seats.)

[minionofmidas]

Mappus has resigned. So has Brüderle - as state FDP chair, not as minister.

[minionofmidas]

Gießen. Again, from a city website.

SPD 33.6 (+0.4) 20 (0) +0.5
CDU 26.5 (-9.5) 16 (-5) +0.9
Greens 20.7 (+7.9) 12 (+4) -2.6
FW 4.6 (+0.8) 3 (+1) +0.1
Left 4.0 (-1.9) 2 (-2) -0.4
FDP 3.6 (-2.1) 2 (-1) +0.4
Pirates 2.8 (+2.8) 2 (+2) 0
LB 2.3 (+2.3) 1 (+1) +0.7
BLG 1.9 (-0.5) 1 (0) +0.5

Same thing with Marburg.

SPD 37.3 (+4.3) 22 (+2) +1.9
CDU 23.0 (-9.0) 14 (-5) -0.9
Greens 22.6 (+5.2) 13 (+3) -1.2
Left 7.4 (-1.4) 4 (-1) 0
FDP 2.5 (-2.4) 2 (-1) +0.1
MBL 2.5 (-0.7) 2 (0) +0.1
BfM 2.2 (+2.2) 1 (+1) +0.1
Pirates 1.9 (+1.9) 1 (+1) -0.1
APPD 0.5 (-0.1) 0 (0) 0

And with Fulda.

CDU 51.0 (-7.6) 30 (-5) +0.7
SPD 18.4 (-1.8) 11 (-1) -0.3
Greens 17.8 (+9.4) 10 (+5) -0.4
CWE 4.6 (+1.3) 3 (+1) +0.2
FDP 3.4 (-1.5) 2 (-1) +0.5
Left 3.0 (+0.4) 2 (+1) -0.6
REP 1.8 (-0.2) 1 (0) -0.2

It is conceivable that all of these are wrong; that the way these cities use their software means that these results include final results from those precincts where the count is final and partial results from those precincts where only the partial count is available. I'll find out I suppose.

Rüsselsheim city website says but one precinct missing.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Mappus has resigned. So has Brüderle - as state FDP chair, not as minister.

In the FDP, there are calls for resignation towards pretty much everyone in the party leadership. Especially Brüderle, Pieper, Homburger.

Westerwelle hasn't ruled out any such resignations today... except for himself of course.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any explanation of why the exit polls (I guess they were exit polls) overestimated the left's victory by almost two points (48-43 instead of 47-44) ? I know there's always a margin of error but that seems a bit far of. People too ashamed to admit they still voted for CDUor FDP ?

[DL]

An exit poll is still a poll - there is margin of error.

[Tender Branson]

This has been the case for almost all elections in Germany.

Exit Polls normally always underestimate the CDU by 1% and overestimate the Greens by about 1%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This has been the case for almost all elections in Germany.

Exit Polls normally always underestimate the CDU by 1% and overestimate the Greens by about 1%.

Really ? Interesting phenomenon.