2011 State Elections in Germany

[Antonio the Sixth]

Here's a map of Left vs. Right in Baden-Württemberg:



The BW results are:

53.2% Left
46.7% Right

Which party do you include in left and right ?

[Tender Branson]

Here's a map of Left vs. Right in Baden-Württemberg:



The BW results are:

53.2% Left
46.7% Right

Which party do you include in left and right ?

Left:

Greens
SPD
Left
Pirates
ÖDP
BIG
The Purple

Right:

CDU
FDP
Republicans
NPD
AUF
PBC
Volksabstimmung

...

The smaller parties like AUF, PBC, BIG etc. didn't play a role in coloring the map anyway.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh well, at least it's complete. Good job.

So a 6.5 points lead results into a 47-46 (not sur of my count) majority for the left. Interesting.

[Tender Branson]

Oh well, at least it's complete. Good job.

So a 6.5 points lead results into a 47-46 (not sur of my count) majority for the left. Interesting.

Majority in seats, districts ... ?

*confused*

[Antonio the Sixth]

Districts. The left won 46-47 and the right 23-24.

[Tender Branson]

Districts. The left won 46-47 and the right 23-24.

Yes, 24 for the Right and 46 for the Left.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Left:

ÖDP

Certainly debatable. Enviromentalism aside, you could make the case that it is more right-wing than left-wing.

The party was originally founded by a former CDU Bundestag representative who had been with the Greens for a brief period until he decided that they are too left-wing for him.  The party's current federal chairman also happens to be a former CSU member.

[Tender Branson]

The party's current federal chairman also happens to be a former CSU member.

...and also was the initiator of the Anti-Smoking-Referendum in Bavaria, which is mostly part of the leftist agenda.

Well, the ÖDP is certainly a centrist party, but I think the environmental positions as well as social positions, like the fact that they oppose tuition fees makes them slightly left-wing.

[Tender Branson]

New Berlin state elections poll by INFO GmbH:

32%   [+1.2] SPD
29% [+15.9] Greens
19%    [-2.3] CDU
11%    [-5.3] Left
  3%    [-4.6] FDP
  6%    [-4.9] Others

2/3 majority for Red-Green.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Guido Westerwelle is probably gonna announce his resignation as party chairman (not foreign minister) on monday.

Potential successors are FDP secretary-general Christian Lindner, federal minister of health Philipp Rösler, and federal minister of justice Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger.

Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger is the only cool choice, and that's why I doubt that it would happen. The FDP she once joined ceased to exist a long time ago anyway.

Most pundits are betting on Rösler right now (Lindner too young, Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger too left-wing). This would also present an opportunity to get rid of Brüderle by making Rösler minister of economics too.

[Tender Branson]

Guido Westerwelle is probably gonna announce his resignation as party chairman (not foreign minister) on monday.

Potential successors are FDP secretary-general Christian Lindner, federal minister of health Philipp Rösler, and federal minister of justice Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger.

Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger is the only cool choice, and that's why I doubt that it would happen. The FDP she once joined ceased to exist a long time ago anyway.

Most pundits are betting on Rösler right now (Lindner too young, Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger too left-wing). This would also present an opportunity to get rid of Brüderle by making Rösler minister of economics too.

Rösler has said though he doesn't want the job, because he wants more time with his family.

Christian "Barney" Lindner on the other hand could take over, IMO.

[Middle-aged Europe]

In addition to his youth, Lindner kind of made himself unpopular in his still largely pro-nuclear party by taking an anti-nuclear stance recently though.

Of course, there's no ideal solution. I'm not convinced yet that either Rösler or Lindner could significantly change the desolate state of their party. Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger is the only potential chair(wo)man who would personify a real change for the FDP. But like I said, that's also the reason why it probably won't happen.

The FDP is also in a situation where the next chairman could simply win by default though.

[minionofmidas]

Oh yeah. Which teletubby will it be?

[minionofmidas]

Final statewide result of the local elections (districts and five cities; votes and seats).

CDU 33.7 (-4.8) 650 (-89)
SPD 31.5 (-3.2) 614 (-64)
Greens 18.3 (+9.1) 348 (+173)
FDP 3.9 (-1.9) 76 (-34)
FW-affiliated lists 5.7 (+0.5) 114 (+12)
Left and affiliated lists 3.3 (0) 65 (+4)
Pirates 1.3 (+1.3) 23 (+23)
other 2.1 (-1.0) 40 (-25)

[minionofmidas]

Seeing as the Grey seat on 0.4% of the vote (with no local strongholds, either! Their peak share is 0.9% in Fechenheim) is a little ridiculous, I went to see what happens with Ste Lague and D'Hondt.

D'Hondt: +2 CDU, +2 Greens, +1 SPD, -1 FDP, FW, Pirates, REP, AGP
Hey, that's a one-seat Green-Red majority.
Ste Lague: +1 CDU, - 1 AGP
Yeah, Ste Lague is usually identical to Hare-Niemeyer in results, except for making the natural threshold (the vote required for the first seat) a little higher on average, and a little less random. In other words, it removes Hare's one flaw.

[Antonio the Sixth]

How does Hare-Niemeyer system work ?

[Tender Branson]

New NRW poll out today by Infratest dimap and it shows a massive Green surge:

34%    [-0.6] CDU
30%    [-4.5] SPD
24% [+11.9] Greens
  4%    [-2.7] FDP
  4%    [-1.6] Left
  4%    [-2.5] Others

Majority for SPD-Greens.

Do you favor or oppose new elections ?

31% Favor
57% Oppose

Direct vote for Governor ?

46% Hannelore Kraft (SPD)
32% Norbert Röttgen (CDU)

...

There's also a new Emnid poll for Germany out:

33% CDU/CSU
26% SPD
23% Greens
  8% Left
  5% FDP
  5% Others

Majority for SPD-Greens.

[Middle-aged Europe]

How does Hare-Niemeyer system work ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_remainder_method

[Antonio the Sixth]

How does Hare-Niemeyer system work ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_remainder_method

Oh well, I just knew it as "largest remainder method".

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why are they polling NRW ?

[minionofmidas]

And it's official. Westerwelle is not standing for reelection as FDP chair at next month's convention. Will continue to impress with his English skills though.
Odds are that Rösler will take over as chair. That would make two German parties with chairs with a migrant background (three if we count Merkel's childhood migration to the GDR. )

[Middle-aged Europe]

Why are they polling NRW ?

Possibility of an early election there this year.

I'd say chances are still somehwat below 50% though.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Decision for the new FDP chairman postoned till tomorrow.

This also means that the great back-stabbing didn't occur so far. Apparently, Philipp Rösler only wants to take over the chairmanship if he also gets a more important cabinet post than his current Health ministry. As a result, someone else would almost certainly get the shaft... most likely either Brüderle or Westerwelle. Both men cling to there cabinet jobs like drowning men though.

[minionofmidas]

Decision for the new FDP chairman postoned till tomorrow.

This also means that the great back-stabbing didn't occur so far.

No, it means the great back-stabbing is still ongoing, and there are still a few daggers and a few backs that haven't gotten together yet.

Rösler will chair (well, will stand for election as chair. Technically.) but is not getting a more important ministry - though he will become vice chancellor. It's apparently still unclear whether Homburger as well as Brüderle has clung on for the time being. Both are marked critters, of course.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The fact that Rösler is stuck at Health is pretty pathetic, actually. How long is he gonna survive as chairman anyway? Till the Berlin state election in September?