Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

... the Bernie Sanders endorsed Vincent Fort is going to attack Stacey Abrams as a radical? lolk

I don't know much about GA politics generally or Fort in specific, but I wouldn't be surprised if Our Rev latched onto a figure who was a substandard match for them in a bid to look like they're not ignoring the South.

[Rookie Yinzer]

... the Bernie Sanders endorsed Vincent Fort is going to attack Stacey Abrams as a radical? lolk

Because politicians have never changed their spots for political gain?

And running for mayor of Atlanta is not the same as running statewide. He hates Abrams so it’s believable.

[Adam Griffin]

... the Bernie Sanders endorsed Vincent Fort is going to attack Stacey Abrams as a radical? lolk

It makes plenty of sense if you assume that Fort abruptly flipped from being a Clinton supporter to a Sanders supporter, all in the hopes that he would be the sole beneficiary of the well-organized Sanders organization in ATL and that it would launch him into the mayor's office the following year...oops.

But yes, as has already been implied here, Abrams doesn't seem to have many friends from the state legislature (for whatever reason that may be).

[Pollster]

Interesting that they intend to attack Evans on the HOPE scholarship, something that has been central to Evans' candidacy.

[henster]

Its hard to root for Abrams and her identity politics driven campaign, this primary is a cautionary tale for Dems I hope this isn't whats in store for 2020.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The portrayals of Casey Cagle in these commercials is hilarious.  Poor guy.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Its hard to root for Abrams and her identity politics driven campaign, this primary is a cautionary tale for Dems I hope this isn't whats in store for 2020.

I'm certainly rooting against any campaign that has their supporters shut down their opponent with chants of "trust black women" just because their candidate is a black woman.

[Jeppe]

Is the GA Dem primary electorate usually that black? 65% seems pretty high.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Is the GA Dem primary electorate usually that black? 65% seems pretty high.

No! That point was perplexing to me as well. The 2016 Dem primary for president was only 51 percent black. The only state with a Democratic primary that black is Mississippi (even Alabama's was only 54 percent!).

I think 50-53 percent is more likely. Abrams' aggressive grassroots outreach to AA voters across all of the state and not just the Atlanta base may shift the make-up a bit, but not that dramatically.

[Adam Griffin]

Is the GA Dem primary electorate usually that black? 65% seems pretty high.

No! That point was perplexing to me as well. The 2016 Dem primary for president was only 51 percent black. The only state with a Democratic primary that black is Mississippi (even Alabama's was only 54 percent!).

I think 50-53 percent is more likely. Abrams' aggressive grassroots outreach to AA voters across all of the state and not just the Atlanta base may shift the make-up a bit, but not that dramatically.

They're definitely being optimistic. From what I've gathered, both Abrams' campaign and Abrams herself believe they are going to be able to remake the electorate in both primary and general contests; if you assume that is their guiding light, then a 65% black electorate makes sense (at least in terms of being compatible with their campaign goals).

Either that, or they have data that suggests a significant share of Dixiecrats who were still voting in the Democratic primary in 2014 for local/county races in South GA have either died/finally flipped. When you look at percentage of primary voters who pulled which party's ballots, even that year had a lot of Republicans in the electorate in the southern half of the state. Not a huge percentage statewide, but enough to potentially make a noticeable impact.

However, it's worth noting that blacks were about 60% of the electorate in the 2008 presidential primary; considering a huge number of white and/or Dixiecratic voters have disappeared since then, it may not be as unreasonable of a goal as it would seem.

Even if they succeed at increasing black turnout significantly, there's another problem: suburban ATL voters. I don't think anybody is under the impression that the huge swings in the metro in 2016 came from black voters. Since the election, suburbia has only soured on Trump even more. It's very possible that hordes of white and non-white, non-black voters pour into the Democratic primary for the first time, cancelling out (and maybe even then some) any gains in black voters.


All in all, I expect there to be a significant loss of white Democratic primary voters in the southern half of the state, an increase in black voters statewide, and a moderate-to-large increase of suburban voters who are switching from R-to-D in the metro. All of those factors are going to tug on one another and it could go in a number of directions, but I highly doubt the black share of the electorate will crack 60% statewide even under optimistic conditions.

[Adam Griffin]

Here's a little cheat-sheet for primary night, showing where votes for each party electorate generally reside. There are of course numerous ways you can hack and splice GA in such contests, but increasingly, population density and the presence of metro areas/lack thereof are key factors. It also helps to know that a candidate who wins a super-majority of counties in the state (in either party) on Election Night can still lose their primary - and quite resoundingly.

Any estimation what % of the Democratic electorate is Black in each of your regions?  Rural Georgia and Non-Atlanta Metro areas are probably dominated by Black Democrats, but I'm curious as to the Urban Atlanta and Exurban Atlanta regions.

Going off of memory here, the four regions in terms of 2016 vote were approximately:

ATL: 62-35 Clinton (+27)
Metro: 72-24 Trump (+48)
Suburbs: 49-48 Trump (+1)
Rural: 68-30 Trump (+38)

Based on DRA 2010 Census data (and doing my best to adjust based on growth), we get:

ATL: 58% Black, 31% White, 11% Other    
Metro: 58% White, 30% Black, 12% Other      
Suburbs: 61% Black, 31% White, 8% Other      
Rural: 57% Black, 37% White, 6% Other      

This would be in line with a 55% Black, 35% White, 10% Other statewide Democratic electorate...in a presidential year. Historically, midterms of course have been whiter so I think - under normal circumstances - we're on track for something like a 52/43/5 split.

Also, how would the %'s on your map change if the "core" Atlanta counties of Fulton, DeKalb and Clayton were a separate region?

For Democrats, essentially an even split: 30% of the Democratic electorate would be in the three core counties; an additional 30% would be in the remaining metro counties in maroon.

For the GOP, 10% and 20%, respectively.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Interesting data point here: According to Pew, Democrats now hold a 2% ID advantage in GA.. That's within the margin of error, but it would point towards the general election being competitive, especially if the trend continues this year as it did in 2017.

[Dr. Arch]

Interesting data point here: According to Pew, Democrats now hold a 2% ID advantage in GA.. That's within the margin of error, but it would point towards the general election being competitive, especially if the trend continues this year as it did in 2017.

Is this a new development?

[PragmaticPopulist]

Interesting data point here: According to Pew, Democrats now hold a 2% ID advantage in GA.. That's within the margin of error, but it would point towards the general election being competitive, especially if the trend continues this year as it did in 2017.

Is this a new development?

Yes, this poll came out just yesterday.

[QAnonKelly]

That’s not actually that surprising. I imagine some of these suburban educated white people don't call themselves Republicans anymore. I’d be interested to see how the Independents break down now too . They’ve always been R leaning as a whole but I’d think the percentage has gone up

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

A lot of southern states have a similar amount of D's as R's but the independents heavily lean R.

[Dr. Arch]

A lot of southern states have a similar amount of D's as R's but the independents heavily lean R.

For how long is the question.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Finally! 34 year old Fulton County Asst. District Attorney Charles Bailey is running for the AG Democratic nomination. He already has the backing of Jason Carter, Teresa Tomlinson, and Minority Leader Bob Trammell.

http://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/carr-draws-democratic-challenger-georgia-race/9fuFPMqLauyxfwtpVhirML/

A couple of things he will be running on is pay raises for law enforcement officials, suing pharmaceutical companies that intentionally marketed drugs to foster the opioid crisis, and sue to protect Georgia's coast from Trump's offshore drilling plans.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Any news on Evans' fundraising?

Evans raised $800,000 from donations in comparison to Abrams raising $1.7 million, but Evans also gave herself a $1.25 million loan so she will be reporting raising $2.3 million.

Evans has $1.5 million cash on hand and nearly all of it will be able to be spent for the May primary.

Abrams has $450,000 cash on hand with only about $180,000 of it being set aside for the primary. She has gone through 80 percent of her funds to build a robust GOTV operation.

Looks like Evans is preparing an ad assault in the weeks leading up to the race, and Abrams will have to rely on the relationships she has built on the ground with grassroots activists.

http://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/georgia-2018-evans-banks-with-help-from-personal-loan/BsogeScdcJI5RdbdzYPUrK/

[KingSweden]

Finally! 34 year old Fulton County Asst. District Attorney Charles Bailey is running for the AG Democratic nomination. He already has the backing of Jason Carter, Teresa Tomlinson, and Minority Leader Bob Trammell.

http://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/carr-draws-democratic-challenger-georgia-race/9fuFPMqLauyxfwtpVhirML/

A couple of things he will be running on is pay raises for law enforcement officials, suing pharmaceutical companies that intentionally marketed drugs to foster the opioid crisis, and sue to protect Georgia's coast from Trump's offshore drilling plans.

Nice get!

[libertpaulian]

Why don't we have polls yet?

[QAnonKelly]

I’m glad someone jumped into the AG race. That should be the easiest pick up opportunity. It’s also good he’s already raised so much money and seems to have the backing of people in the state.

[Young Conservative]

Why don't we have polls yet?

It is interesting that no candidates are releasing internals.

[Rookie Yinzer]

John Barrow announced a slew of endorsements from folks like Jason Carter, David Scott, John Lewis, Sanford Bishop, Roy Barnes, Teresa Tomlinson, and many other former Democratic Representatives and Senators.

He also received a couple of endorsements from local Republican county commissioners and sheriffs from his old district.

https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/barrow-locks-support-from-big-name-dems-and-few-gopers/2Z4xhKTgIJCj3oAix5ZtPO/

[BuckeyeNut]

John Barrow announced a slew of endorsements from folks like Jason Carter, David Scott, John Lewis, Sanford Bishop, Roy Barnes, Teresa Tomlinson, and many other former Democratic Representatives and Senators.

He also received a couple of endorsements from local Republican county commissioners and sheriffs from his old district.

https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/barrow-locks-support-from-big-name-dems-and-few-gopers/2Z4xhKTgIJCj3oAix5ZtPO/

FF