Spanish elections and politics

[Velasco]

Yes, I realise. As you say, bad taste is not enough motivation for five days of solitary confinement under the anti-terrorist law.

[Velasco]

Investiture session scheduled to begin on March 2; vote will take place the following day. Pedro Sánchez told Speaker Patxi López that he hopes to have garnered enough support by then.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/02/15/inenglish/1455531959_507383.html

Meanwhile, Pablo Iglesias presented a document to the media. It's the Podemos counter-offer to the document submitted by socialists days ago, setting priorities for negotiation. The purple party advocates for "urgent changes" in government restructuring. Also, the paper describes the role Pablo Iglesias should have as Deputy Prime Minister and demands a Catalan referendum at the beginning of the term.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/02/15/inenglish/1455547524_271299.html

PSOE spokesman Antonio Hernando reacted to this with "perplexity", stating that Pablo Iglesias seems to ignore his role in the present situation. In other words, he said that Pedro Sánchez is the one who must take the initiative in negotiations, given that he has the commission to form a government.

On the other hand, PSOE and IU agreed a number of measures including electoral reform and the repeal of Labour laws passed by PP. IU urges Podemos to negotiate, as well to abandon the "red line" drawn on the Catalan referendum.

In other news, Madrid premier Cristina Cifuentes will assume regional leadership of PP after the resignation of Esperanza Aguirre and until a new regional congress takes place.

[Diouf]

On the other hand, PSOE and IU agreed a number of measures including electoral reform and the repeal of Labour laws passed by PP. IU urges Podemos to negotiate, as well to abandon the "red line" drawn on the Catalan referendum.

A nationwide proportional system that would give IU more seats?

[Nanwe]

On the other hand, PSOE and IU agreed a number of measures including electoral reform and the repeal of Labour laws passed by PP. IU urges Podemos to negotiate, as well to abandon the "red line" drawn on the Catalan referendum.

A nationwide proportional system that would give IU more seats?

Yes, but it cannot happen. Although constitutional reforms don't fix much, despite our obsession with them, electoral reform, if one wants to move towards a very different system, does require constitutional reform because the Constitution establishes the province as the basis electoral unit. That hurts IU, which does not have enough votes to successfully concentrate them. At best a mild electoral reform (upping the number of MPs to 400, allocating 1 instead of 2 seats per province) could improve their situation, but nothing drastic.

Personally I have my very sincere doubts about whether that would be a good system in the first place.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Couldn't they keep the provinces but stick a top-up list on the top?

[Velasco]

Couldn't they keep the provinces but stick a top-up list on the top?

IU proposed introducing leveling seats. Currently the Congress of Deputies has 350 seats, but the Constitution allows as much as 400. Hence the Lower House could have 350 fixed seats (elected provincially) and 50 additional adjustment seats (nationwide). PSOE agreed with the proposal, but in any case its implementation would require an 'express' constitutional reform. PP has a blocking minority in the Parliament, so their votes are necessary in order to pass that kind of initiatives.

[Nanwe]

Couldn't they keep the provinces but stick a top-up list on the top?

IU proposed introducing leveling seats. Currently the Congress of Deputies has 350 seats, but the Constitution allows as much as 400. Hence the Lower House could have 350 fixed seats (elected provincially) and 50 additional adjustment seats (nationwide). PSOE agreed with the proposal, but in any case its implementation would require an 'express' constitutional reform. PP has a blocking minority in the Parliament, so their votes are necessary in order to pass that kind of initiatives.

Honestly, the two minor reforms I outlined above, combined with changing from Hont to Hare or some such would be enough to increase proportionality without needing to change the constitutional text, which is impossible in this legislature, unless we also change the Senate.

[Velasco]

Basque Country and Galicia will hold regional elections this year. According to a poll released on Feb 16 and conducted by Ikertalde and the Basque government (Cabinet of Sociological Surveying), the 75 seats of the Basque Parliament would be distributed as follows:

PNV 24, Podemos 18, EH Bildu 15, PSE-EE 9, PP 8, C's 1

Breakdown by province

Álaba-Araba: EAJ-PNV 22.1% (6), Podemos 21.3% (6), PP 17.3% (5), EH Bildu 17.1% (4), PSE-EE 11.8% (3), C's 5% (1)

Bizkaia (Biscay): EAJ-PNV 35.7% (10), Podemos 19.9% (6), EH Bildu 15.5% (4), PSE-EE 11.6% (3), PP 8.7% (2)

Gipuzkoa: PNV 28.2% ( 8 ), EH Bildu 25.9% (7), Podemos 21.1% (6), PSE-EE 12.8% (3), PP 5.3% (1)

Sample 2310. Fieldwork: Jan 25 to Feb 2.

https://www.euskadi.eus/contenidos/informe_estudio/o_16sv60prevision/es_def/adjuntos/16sv60_previsiones.pdf

http://www.electograph.com/2016/02/pais-vasco-febrero-2016-sondeo.html

[Velasco]

As for the complex negotiations to form a government, PSOE and C's staged their good working relationship. Spokesmen Antonio Hernando (PSOE) and José Manuel Villegas (C's) talked of "significant breakthroughs". Both parties reached partial agreements on social policies, "democratic regeneration" and fight against corruption. However, they have some discrepancies on labour and fiscal policies. PSOE wants to repeal current labour laws, while C's only wants a partial reform. C's is firmly opposed to raise taxes, advocating for a reduction for the middle class.

Hernando was very optimistic and is convinced that C's will vote in favour of Sanchez's investiture once the agreement is reached. Villegas, on the other hand, told that reds and oranges found some common ground but the agreement must be global. Oranges stand firm on their will to abstain in the investiture, at best and in case of agreement.
 
PSOE and C's are seeking to put pressure on PP and Podemos.

As for the relationship between PSOE and Podemos, they are at odds. Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias are mutually suspicious.

According to Enric Juliana in La Vanguardia, Pedro Sánchez is trying to make a string with 143 pearls. He has already 90, but is 53 pearls short. The pearls Sánchez wants to add to the string belong to C's (40), PNV (6), Compromís (4), IU (2) and CC (1).

Also, Sánchez needs that Podemos (65) abstains in the second investiture vote. ERC (9) and CDC ( 8 ) threaten to vote against. Adding PP (123) and EH Bildu (2), black pearls would total 142.

That string is extremely fragile. According to Juliana, the support from C's and the other parties depends on a guarantee of victory that lies on the Podemos' abstention. In case the string breaks, Pedro Sánchez could reach the investiture session with only 90 pearls. In the worst scenario for Sánchez, 'baroness' Susana Díaz could wear her best necklace in Holy Week processions (very popular among Andalusians). So far, PSOE leader has surprised some people showing skills for survival. We will soon see how far he can go.    

[Velasco]

Popular Party offers two deputy PM posts to Socialists and Ciudadanos

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/02/18/inenglish/1455809606_024665.html

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Pointless gestures. Mariano Rajoy is just waiting Pedro Sánchez crashes. Yesterday in Brussels, Mr Rajoy told David Cameron and other EU leaders that Sánchez will fail in all likelihood and new elections will be called on June 26, that is apparently the date scheduled for the Brexit referendum.

[Nanwe]

Sigma Dos for El Mundo:

PP: 27.8% (-0.9), 119 seats (-4);
PSOE: 23.1% (+1.1), 93 seats (+3);
Podemos: 18.8% (-1.2), 60 seats (-9);
Ciudadanos: 15.3% (+1.4), 50 seats (+10);
IU: 4.0% (+0.3), 3 seats (+1)

Details: 1.000 interview. Margin of error: ±3.16%

[Velasco]

PSOE and Ciudadanos signed a deal yesterday, deemed as "historical" and "the beginning of a New Time (Segunda Transición)". PSOE made concessions on economy and labour laws. Territorial model and Catalonia were bypassed. As a result, oranges changed their minds and will support Pedro Sánchez's investiture. The only Canary Coalition MP joined the signatories and will vote "yes". The support of Basque nationalists is uncertain. So far, the PSOE candidate has 131 votes.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/02/24/inenglish/1456324792_423826.html

The Big Centre Daydream lasted only a few hours. PP spokepersons made clear previously their opposition to a PSOE-C's deal that makes Pedro Sánchez PM. Podemos rejected the agreement shortly after:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/02/24/inenglish/1456304567_413109.html?rel=mas

Later, IU MP Alberto Garzón and Compromís spokesman Joan Baldoví announced they withdraw from the quadripartite negotiations between leftist parties and PSOE. These negotiations could be eventually retaken after the first investiture session, given that Podemos spokepersons say the hand is still open. 

[Nanwe]

On economic issues, the agreement is fairly progressive, it includes improvements in temporary works, the development of proper state-sponsored work training and work-search systems, work benefits or a sort of minimum income for those without work income.

I haven't yet heard anyone from Podemos explain precisely why it's so incompatible with them except that they say it is. Not surprising though. To be frank, the more time passes, the more I have come to dislike the party.

[Velasco]

I haven't yet heard anyone from Podemos explain precisely why it's so incompatible with them except that they say it is. Not surprising though. To be frank, the more time passes, the more I have come to dislike the party.

Podemos issued a press release explaining the reasons why they cannot join the agreement. According to El Mundo, they are:

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2016/02/24/56cdaa0646163f0a1b8b466e.html

1) Labour reforms approved by PP (2012) and PSOE (2010) are not repealed.

2) Both parties oppose a referendum in Catalonia.

3) The deal does not recognize the multinational character of the Spanish State

4) The deal does not include a "progressive taxation reform". Podemos wants to raise the maximum rate (income up to 300,000 Euros) from 45% to 55%.

5) The agreement does not repeal the reform of Article 135 of the Spanish Constitution agreed by PP and PSOE which prioritizes debt payment. Such reform was approved in the last period of Zapatero's administration, when former socialist PM was pressured to make a radical change in economic policies, implement cuts, etcetera. Sanchez promised to reverse the reform during the campaign. Also, the repeal of Art 135 is one of the Podemos' bait flags.

6) It doesn't ban "revolving doors", expression that means former senior Govt officials joining the boards of big 'strategic' enterprises (energy and others). That is another major issue for the aubergine party. The PSOE-C's deal expands incompatibility period to 5 years.

7) Podemos, PSOE and C's agree on the unsustainability of the pace of the deficit reduction demanded by Brussels. However, Podemos differs in the method to slow down such reduction to an affordable pace.

8 ) Podemos thinks there is little increase in public investment that purples deem necessary to improve economy and job creation.
 
9) Podemos demands lowering VAT for food and non-alcoholic beverages to a super reduced 4% rate, basic supplies (electricity, heating and gas) to 10%. As well, Podemos wants to increase VAT for luxury goods to 25%.

10)  Podemos wants the complete repeal of the citizen security law passed by PP and better known as 'gag law'. The PSOE-C's agreement only contemplates to repeal those matters appealed to the Constitutional Court.

[Nanwe]

Thaks for that, Velasco, some degree of viscerality is gone, although I still hear Garzón's 'it's regressive' comment in my head. But that's not Podemos' fault

. Although my main issue with those Podemos' objection and some points of PSOE-C's agreement is that they require a constitutional change, which is impossible to happen with the PP holding over 1/3 of Congress and the majority in the Senate. They are pipe dreams at least with Rajoy still leading the PP.

Anyhow,

The Huffington Post recently published a very interesting article about Podemos' difficult attitude to the deal:

Link (in Spanihs). Huffington Post Did my best at translating it.

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[Nanwe]

And an interesting anaylitical article:

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[Velasco]

Investiture debate: Pedro Sánchez calls for support to pull Spain out of current political impasse

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/03/01/inenglish/1456854478_073704.html

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Previously Podemos rejected an offer from PSOE:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/02/29/inenglish/1456762558_548387.html

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Right now investiture session continues with the replies from the rest of parties to yesterday's speech.

Live coverage (Spanish)

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/03/01/media/1456827577_344664.html

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What are the odds of a new election?

[Nanwe]

What are the odds of a new election?

My personal opinion is 50:50.

[Velasco]

What are the odds of a new election?

My personal opinion is 50:50.

That's too optimistic, IMO. I wouldn't suffer another campaign, but I can't see how the different parties are going to prevent it. My bet os 80:20, just to  give some chance to Sánchez.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If I was the Spanish left (or even just a "reformist") I'd muscle behind a big unity ticket just for the senate to stop PP just grabbing it by default.

[Zanas]

If I was the Spanish left (or even just a "reformist") I'd muscle behind a big unity ticket just for the senate to stop PP just grabbing it by default.

Yeah, but there's no "Spanish left". There are "Spanish lefts", and they are somewhat drifting apart rather than coming together.

[Velasco]

Pedro Sánchez loses first investiture vote.

Yes 130, No 219, Abstain 1

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/03/02/inenglish/1456941827_019897.html

This morning Mariano Rajoy and Pablo Iglesias launched harsh attacks on the socialist candidate

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/03/02/inenglish/1456919623_028253.html

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[Lumine]

Assuming Sánchez loses the second vote as well (as it seems likely), would that mean new elections right away? Or would Rajoy and/or Sánchez get another chance?

[Velasco]

If I was the Spanish left (or even just a "reformist") I'd muscle behind a big unity ticket just for the senate to stop PP just grabbing it by default.

Yeah, but there's no "Spanish left". There are "Spanish lefts", and they are somewhat drifting apart rather than coming together.

I would rather like a PSOE-Podemos-IU joint list to the fycking Senate. Given that Spanish Senate is irrelevant, an obstacle to reforms, a thorn in the side of all of us, etcetera... why lefties can't put aside their party differences in order to not give away majority to PP? Sadly, I haven't an answer for this question. There is a precedent in Catalonia, where lefitst parties (PSC, PSUC/ICV and sometimes ERC, I believe) used to run in a joint list for the Upper House called Entesa. However, in the last election En Comú Podem and PSC ran their own lists.

Assuming Sánchez loses the second vote as well (as it seems likely), would that mean new elections right away? Or would Rajoy and/or Sánchez get another chance?

From now on Rajoy and Sánchez (or whoever is commissioned by King Felipe) have exactly two months to reach an agreement with other parties and pass another investiture session. In case nobody is elected  until May 2, a new election will be triggered on June 26.