Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Maine 2nd CD

[ElectionsGuy]

Two votes. One for a rating (Safe D, Lean R, Toss-Up, etc.) and one for a prediction of who will win (Clinton, Trump, or Other).

Note: If you think Johnson/Other will win a state, just vote 'Other' and don't vote for a rating.

Update/vote in these threads if you haven't already! There's no time limit and you can still affect the overall result:

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine ME-01

Ratings

Safe Clinton: 95
Likely Clinton: 0
Lean Clinton: 9
Toss-Up: 35
Lean Trump: 27
Likely Trump: 14
Safe Trump: 41

Clinton: 104
Trump: 82
Toss-Up: 35

Predictions

Clinton: 139
Trump: 82



Previous Results

2012: 52.9% Obama, 44.4% Romney.
2008: 54.6% Obama, 43.4% McCain.

Maine 2nd CD: Likely D, 52-42 Clinton.

[Gass3268]

Likely D

53-42-5 (Clinton-Trump-Other)

[Xing]

Probably somewhere between Lean and Likely D, but I think Trump's "strength" here is overstated. So I'll go with Likely D, Clinton wins 52-44.

[evergreenarbor]

Somewhere between Likely and Safe D.

Clinton: 50
Trump: 41
Johnson: 7
Others: 2

[Senator-elect Spark]

Likely R.

Trump 45
Clinton 37

[tinman64]

Likely D.

Clinton 53
Trump 42
Others 5

[dspNY]

Lean D, almost Likely D, with a sizable 3rd party vote

Clinton 47
Trump 38
Johnson 11
Stein 4

[Ronnie]

Let's not kid ourselves.  Safe D.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Likely D, Clinton 54-44

[Averroës Nix]

Thank you, Ben Constine, for bumping 50+ threads to post your one-line, entirely non-descript predictions that totally could not have appeared in a single post. We will have as much fun reading them as you did posting them, and I can hardly think of a better tribute to your legacy as someone who never has anything interesting to say but insists on saying it anyway.

[Lachi]

Thank you, Ben Constine, for bumping 50+ threads to post your one-line, entirely non-descript predictions that totally could not have appeared in a single post. We will have as much fun reading them as you did posting them, and I can hardly think of a better tribute to your legacy as someone who never has anything interesting to say but insists on saying it anyway.

are you trying to troll, cause if you are, you aren't doing a good job.

[AGA]

I know that many people here do not trust Emerson this year, but they did conduct a poll that had Trump up by 5.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

The problem is I don't know whether Trump will keep the election close or even competitive at this point. So I'm going with Tossup/Trump right now.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Clinton plurality.

[SNJ1985]

Hillary Clinton: 51%
Donald Trump: 44%
Others: 5%

[Xing]

Looks like the demographics of this place might be catching up to it. Changing my prediction to Toss-Up, Clinton 49-46 for now.

[NHI]

I think a narrow Trump win.

[AGA]

Changing prediction to Tossup with Clinton still edging out a victory. I may change this rating again if the debate changes the state of the race at all.

Also, here is a fun fact. ME-02 is the largest congressional district east of the Mississippi river.

[NOVA Green]

Moved to Likely Trump...

47-41-12   (Trump-Clinton-Other)

[peterthlee]

Likely D (based on recent polling, otherwise, Safe D)
Clinton 53-43-4
Margin of victory around 9.95 points, showing improvement from Obama '12; but still short of 10 points (which is considered to be 'safe' for one candidate)

[NOVA Green]

Shifting from Likely R to Tossup (Trump).

Been going through all of my predictions so there are a few states where I had to move a couple notches, since I haven't been modifying these very often, and prefer to go through all at once....

I know... I know... I know....

But Meh "Polling says that Clinton is tied or ahead in ME-02" !!!!

I'm still keeping ME-02 honest, since when I rolled through it reminded me a lot of parts of Southern Oregon combined with certain parts of the Oregon Coast, but in a New England remote setting.

I could see Clinton pulling ahead here, and EV numbers provide some favorable data points for her, but the "Washington Outsider" schtick plays well in many depressed rural and small-town regions where there used to be good paying union jobs back in the days, and the Democratic Party now increasingly in the eyes of many of these historically Dem voters appears to care more about Wall Street than providing solutions to improve economic conditions for their communities.

[Dr. Arch]

Switched from Tossup Trump to Lean D Clinton.

[OneJ]

Lean D