2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Ipsos/Reuters, Feb 15-19, 766 RV

D 42 (nc)
R 35 (-1)

Third consecutive poll they've had D at 42, while R has gone from 38 to 36 to 35.

Tax bill enthusiasm wearing off?

[KingSweden]

Ipsos/Reuters, Feb 15-19, 766 RV

D 42 (nc)
R 35 (-1)

Third consecutive poll they've had D at 42, while R has gone from 38 to 36 to 35.

Tax bill enthusiasm wearing off?

The swell of short-term bonuses/hiring announcements was unsustainable.

[Landslide Lyndon]

PPP polled 14 House districts.
Don't have time to write more details so feel free to do so.

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/2c7561_1536971fc62f48d080ed80a77ed8708c.pdf

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

PPP polled 14 House districts.
Don't have time to write more details so feel free to do so.

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/2c7561_1536971fc62f48d080ed80a77ed8708c.pdf

Took a screenshot of the data...hope it shows up...

[Ebsy]

Scary numbers for the GOP.

[LimoLiberal]

PPP polled 14 House districts.
Don't have time to write more details so feel free to do so.

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/2c7561_1536971fc62f48d080ed80a77ed8708c.pdf

These are pretty meh to be honest. Super close races for all.

CA-25: Generic D leads Knight (R, i) 44-42 (D+2)
CA-39: Generic D leads Generic R 45-43 (D+2)
CA-49: Generic D leads Generic R 50-41 (D+9)
FL-27: Generic D leads Generic R 54-39 (D+15)
IA-1: Finkenauer (D) leads Blum (R, i) 43-42 (D+1)
KS-2: Davis (D) leads Generic R 44-42 (D+2)
KY-6: Generic D leads Barr (R, i) 44-43 (D+1)
ME-2: Generic D leads Poliquin (R, i) 45-44 (D+1)
MI-11: Generic D leads Generic R 45-42 (D+3)
MN-3: Dean Phillips (D) leads Paulsen (R, i) 46-43 (D+3)
NJ-11: Mikie Sherill (D) losing to Generic R 40-42 (R+2)
NY-19: Generic D tied with Faso (R, i) 42-42 (tied)
TX-23: Generic D losing to Hurd (R, i) 43-44 (R+1)
WA-8: Generic D leads Dino Rossi (R) 44-43 (D+1)

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

PPP polled 14 House districts.
Don't have time to write more details so feel free to do so.

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/2c7561_1536971fc62f48d080ed80a77ed8708c.pdf

These are pretty meh to be honest. Super close races for all.

CA-25: Generic D leads Knight (R, i) 44-42 (D+2)
CA-39: Generic D leads Generic R 45-43 (D+2)
CA-49: Generic D leads Generic R 50-41 (D+9)
FL-27: Generic D leads Generic R 54-39 (D+15)
IA-1: Finkenauer (D) leads Blum (R, i) 43-42 (D+1)
KS-2: Davis (D) leads Generic R 44-42 (D+2)
KY-6: Generic D leads Barr (R, i) 44-43 (D+1)
ME-2: Generic D leads Poliquin (R, i) 45-44 (D+1)
MI-11: Generic D leads Generic R 45-42 (D+3)
MN-3: Dean Phillips (D) leads Paulsen (R, i) 46-43 (D+3)
NJ-11: Mikie Sherill (D) losing to Generic R 40-42 (R+2)
NY-19: Generic D tied with Faso (R, i) 42-42 (tied)
TX-23: Generic D losing to Hurd (R, i) 43-44 (R+1)
WA-8: Generic D leads Dino Rossi (R) 44-43 (D+1)

Mildly concerning numbers for the GOP in the Midwest and California. Undeniably great for them elsewhere considering the National Generic ballot.

[Ebsy]

CA-25 (Steve Knight):

Knight approval: 36/44
Trump approval: 40/55

Knight/D: 42/44

CA-39 (Open):

R/D: 43/45

CA-49 (Open):

R/D: 41/50

FL-27 (Open)

R/D: 39/54

IA-01 (Blum):

Blum approval: 37/47
Trump approval: 40/55

Blum/Finkenauer: 42/43

KS-02 (Open):

R/Davis: 42/44

KY-06 (Barr):

Barr approval: 48/41
Trump approve: 50/45

Barr/D: 43/44

ME-02 (Poliquin):

Poliquin approval: 41/49
Trump approval: 43/52

Poliquin/D: 44/45

MI-11 (Open):

R/D: 42/45

MN-03 (Paulsen):

Paulsen approval 38/46
Trump approbal: 40/56

Paulsen/Phillips: 43/46

NJ-11 (Open):

Sherill/R: 40/42

NY-19 (Faso):

Faso approval: 37/44
Trump approval: 47/49

Faso/D: 42/42

TX-23 (Hurd):

Hurd approval: 46/31
Trump approval: 42/52

Hurd/D: 44/43

WA-08 (Open):

Trump approval: 43/52

Rossi/D: 43/44

[Gass3268]

In regards to those polls:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

since when did will hurd become so popular?

[Boobs]

since when did will hurd become so popular?

Hurd was never unpopular... TX-23 is one of those districts that turnout makes the difference in winner, like NH-01.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

since when did will hurd become so popular?

He’s one of the few bipartisan GOP congressmen.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

he wasn't unpopular but he barely won in 2016

also what the heck is going on in kansas? didnt trump win there by 20?

[Gass3268]

he wasn't unpopular but he barely won in 2016

also what the heck is going on in kansas? didnt trump win there by 20?

Brownback fatigue and Davis is a good candidate.

[King Lear]

PPP polled 14 House districts.
Don't have time to write more details so feel free to do so.

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/2c7561_1536971fc62f48d080ed80a77ed8708c.pdf

These are pretty meh to be honest. Super close races for all.

CA-25: Generic D leads Knight (R, i) 44-42 (D+2)
CA-39: Generic D leads Generic R 45-43 (D+2)
CA-49: Generic D leads Generic R 50-41 (D+9)
FL-27: Generic D leads Generic R 54-39 (D+15)
IA-1: Finkenauer (D) leads Blum (R, i) 43-42 (D+1)
KS-2: Davis (D) leads Generic R 44-42 (D+2)
KY-6: Generic D leads Barr (R, i) 44-43 (D+1)
ME-2: Generic D leads Poliquin (R, i) 45-44 (D+1)
MI-11: Generic D leads Generic R 45-42 (D+3)
MN-3: Dean Phillips (D) leads Paulsen (R, i) 46-43 (D+3)
NJ-11: Mikie Sherill (D) losing to Generic R 40-42 (R+2)
NY-19: Generic D tied with Faso (R, i) 42-42 (tied)
TX-23: Generic D losing to Hurd (R, i) 43-44 (R+1)
WA-8: Generic D leads Dino Rossi (R) 44-43 (D+1)

To be honest, this polling indicates that Democrats only have a relatively small (3 or 4 point) generic ballot lead, because the only seats where Democrats are leading by a statistically significant margin are CA-49 and FL-27, while the rest of the seats are basically coin flips. This dose not corealate with the 7 point lead in the RCP average, or let alone the 15 point lead in Quinnapack.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

PPP polled 14 House districts.
Don't have time to write more details so feel free to do so.

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/2c7561_1536971fc62f48d080ed80a77ed8708c.pdf

These are pretty meh to be honest. Super close races for all.

CA-25: Generic D leads Knight (R, i) 44-42 (D+2)
CA-39: Generic D leads Generic R 45-43 (D+2)
CA-49: Generic D leads Generic R 50-41 (D+9)
FL-27: Generic D leads Generic R 54-39 (D+15)
IA-1: Finkenauer (D) leads Blum (R, i) 43-42 (D+1)
KS-2: Davis (D) leads Generic R 44-42 (D+2)
KY-6: Generic D leads Barr (R, i) 44-43 (D+1)
ME-2: Generic D leads Poliquin (R, i) 45-44 (D+1)
MI-11: Generic D leads Generic R 45-42 (D+3)
MN-3: Dean Phillips (D) leads Paulsen (R, i) 46-43 (D+3)
NJ-11: Mikie Sherill (D) losing to Generic R 40-42 (R+2)
NY-19: Generic D tied with Faso (R, i) 42-42 (tied)
TX-23: Generic D losing to Hurd (R, i) 43-44 (R+1)
WA-8: Generic D leads Dino Rossi (R) 44-43 (D+1)

To be honest, this polling indicates that Democrats only have a relatively small (3 or 4 point) generic ballot lead, because the only seats where Democrats are leading by a statistically significant margin are CA-49 and FL-27, while the rest of the seats are basically coin flips. This dose not corealate with the 7 point lead in the RCP average, or let alone the 15 point lead in Quinnapack.

First of all PPP has been one of the more conservative leaning pollsters lately, I'm sure it will end up being over a 10 point advantage for the Dems.

[LimoLiberal]

That PPP polling suggests the Republicans have made significant gains since November. Patriot Majority had PPP poll some of the districts in November, and look at the changes.


Went from D+12 in CA-25 to D+2
Phillips led in MN-03 by 4 and now leads by 3
Generic D led Frelinghuysen in NJ-11 by 2, Sherill now is down by 2 to Generic R
Generic D led Faso by 6 in NY-19, and now is tied.

Massive R swings. No wonder some House Ds are in panic mode.

[Gass3268]

That PPP polling suggests the Republicans have made significant gains since November. Patriot Majority had PPP poll some of the districts in November, and look at the changes.


Went from D+12 in CA-25 to D+2
Phillips led in MN-03 by 4 and now leads by 3
Generic D led Frelinghuysen in NJ-11 by 2, Sherill now is down by 2 to Generic R
Generic D led Faso by 6 in NY-19, and now is tied.

Massive R swings. No wonder some House Ds are in panic mode.

Except they're not...

[ProgressiveCanadian]

That PPP polling suggests the Republicans have made significant gains since November. Patriot Majority had PPP poll some of the districts in November, and look at the changes.


Went from D+12 in CA-25 to D+2
Phillips led in MN-03 by 4 and now leads by 3
Generic D led Frelinghuysen in NJ-11 by 2, Sherill now is down by 2 to Generic R
Generic D led Faso by 6 in NY-19, and now is tied.

Massive R swings. No wonder some House Ds are in panic mode.

Trolling will get you no where in life.

[Devout Centrist]

That PPP polling suggests the Republicans have made significant gains since November. Patriot Majority had PPP poll some of the districts in November, and look at the changes.


Went from D+12 in CA-25 to D+2
Phillips led in MN-03 by 4 and now leads by 3
Generic D led Frelinghuysen in NJ-11 by 2, Sherill now is down by 2 to Generic R
Generic D led Faso by 6 in NY-19, and now is tied.

Massive R swings. No wonder some House Ds are in panic mode.

Will you delete your account if the House flips?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

That PPP polling suggests the Republicans have made significant gains since November. Patriot Majority had PPP poll some of the districts in November, and look at the changes.


Went from D+12 in CA-25 to D+2
Phillips led in MN-03 by 4 and now leads by 3
Generic D led Frelinghuysen in NJ-11 by 2, Sherill now is down by 2 to Generic R
Generic D led Faso by 6 in NY-19, and now is tied.

Massive R swings. No wonder some House Ds are in panic mode.

Will you delete your account if when the House flips?

FTFY

[LimoLiberal]

That PPP polling suggests the Republicans have made significant gains since November. Patriot Majority had PPP poll some of the districts in November, and look at the changes.


Went from D+12 in CA-25 to D+2
Phillips led in MN-03 by 4 and now leads by 3
Generic D led Frelinghuysen in NJ-11 by 2, Sherill now is down by 2 to Generic R
Generic D led Faso by 6 in NY-19, and now is tied.

Massive R swings. No wonder some House Ds are in panic mode.

Will you delete your account if the House flips?

No? I'll be extremely happy?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

That PPP polling suggests the Republicans have made significant gains since November. Patriot Majority had PPP poll some of the districts in November, and look at the changes.


Went from D+12 in CA-25 to D+2
Phillips led in MN-03 by 4 and now leads by 3
Generic D led Frelinghuysen in NJ-11 by 2, Sherill now is down by 2 to Generic R
Generic D led Faso by 6 in NY-19, and now is tied.

Massive R swings. No wonder some House Ds are in panic mode.

Will you delete your account if the House flips?

No? I'll be extremely happy?

Try to point out some positives too, sheesh. I'm not saying ignore the negatives, but your tale nearly all the time is solely the sky is falling down.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Yea it's obvious the house is going to flip. The new Pennsylvania map also doesn't help the GOP's causes.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

NEW YouGov/Economist poll:

(2/18-2/20)

Democrats: 43% (+1)
GOP: 35% (-3)

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