2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Gass3268]

Inside Elections made four Senate changes (3 pro-Dem, 1 pro-Rep):

WV: Tossup -> Tilt D
WI: Tilt D -> Lean D
OH: Lean D -> Likely D
PA: Lean D -> Likely D
ND: Tossup -> Tilt R

Also, if forced to push the Tossups, they have D+2 (Arizona and Nevada) and R+1 (North Dakota), predicting a 50-50 chamber with Pence breaking the tie.

[wesmoorenerd]

Inside Elections made four Senate changes (3 pro-Dem, 1 pro-Rep):

WV: Tossup -> Tilt D
WI: Tilt D -> Lean D
OH: Lean D -> Likely D
PA: Lean D -> Likely D
ND: Tossup -> Tilt R

Also, if forced to push the Tossups, they have D+2 (Arizona and Nevada) and R+1 (North Dakota), predicting a 50-50 chamber with Pence breaking the tie.

Pushing ND to Tilt R is quite bold. You could certainly make an argument for it, but there's still not a lot of polling and I think time is on Heitkamp's side (she's a better campaigner than Cramer).

Also, WI should definitely be at Likely D, TN should definitely be at Tossup.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Inside Elections made four Senate changes (3 pro-Dem, 1 pro-Rep):

WV: Tossup -> Tilt D
WI: Tilt D -> Lean D
OH: Lean D -> Likely D
PA: Lean D -> Likely D
ND: Tossup -> Tilt R

Also, if forced to push the Tossups, they have D+2 (Arizona and Nevada) and R+1 (North Dakota), predicting a 50-50 chamber with Pence breaking the tie.

Pushing ND to Tilt R is quite bold. You could certainly make an argument for it, but there's still not a lot of polling and I think time is on Heitkamp's side (she's a better campaigner than Cramer).

It is perfectly reasonable.

[wesmoorenerd]

Inside Elections made four Senate changes (3 pro-Dem, 1 pro-Rep):

WV: Tossup -> Tilt D
WI: Tilt D -> Lean D
OH: Lean D -> Likely D
PA: Lean D -> Likely D
ND: Tossup -> Tilt R

Also, if forced to push the Tossups, they have D+2 (Arizona and Nevada) and R+1 (North Dakota), predicting a 50-50 chamber with Pence breaking the tie.

Pushing ND to Tilt R is quite bold. You could certainly make an argument for it, but there's still not a lot of polling and I think time is on Heitkamp's side (she's a better campaigner than Cramer).

It is perfectly reasonable.

If the election were to happen today, Cramer would probably win, but November is pretty much 50/50. I don't think Heitkamp is at enough of a disadvantage to warrant a Tilt R rating in any case, certainly not when Heller and the AZ seat are still Tossups.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Inside Elections made four Senate changes (3 pro-Dem, 1 pro-Rep):

WV: Tossup -> Tilt D
WI: Tilt D -> Lean D
OH: Lean D -> Likely D
PA: Lean D -> Likely D
ND: Tossup -> Tilt R

Also, if forced to push the Tossups, they have D+2 (Arizona and Nevada) and R+1 (North Dakota), predicting a 50-50 chamber with Pence breaking the tie.

Pushing ND to Tilt R is quite bold. You could certainly make an argument for it, but there's still not a lot of polling and I think time is on Heitkamp's side (she's a better campaigner than Cramer).

It is perfectly reasonable.

If the election were to happen today, Cramer would probably win, but November is pretty much 50/50. I don't think Heitkamp is at enough of a disadvantage to warrant a Tilt R rating in any case, certainly not when Heller and the AZ seat are still Tossups.

Yeah, AZ and NV should be at lean D and tilt D respectfully.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Inside Elections made four Senate changes (3 pro-Dem, 1 pro-Rep):

WV: Tossup -> Tilt D
WI: Tilt D -> Lean D
OH: Lean D -> Likely D
PA: Lean D -> Likely D
ND: Tossup -> Tilt R

Also, if forced to push the Tossups, they have D+2 (Arizona and Nevada) and R+1 (North Dakota), predicting a 50-50 chamber with Pence breaking the tie.

Pushing ND to Tilt R is quite bold. You could certainly make an argument for it, but there's still not a lot of polling and I think time is on Heitkamp's side (she's a better campaigner than Cramer).

It is perfectly reasonable.

If the election were to happen today, Cramer would probably win, but November is pretty much 50/50. I don't think Heitkamp is at enough of a disadvantage to warrant a Tilt R rating in any case, certainly not when Heller and the AZ seat are still Tossups.

Yeah, AZ and NV should be at lean D and tilt D respectfully.

The only way Democrats are more likely to pickup Arizona than Nevada is in the unlikely circumstance of Joe Arpaio winning the nomination.

[ajc0918]

Inside Elections made four Senate changes (3 pro-Dem, 1 pro-Rep):

WV: Tossup -> Tilt D
WI: Tilt D -> Lean D
OH: Lean D -> Likely D
PA: Lean D -> Likely D
ND: Tossup -> Tilt R

Also, if forced to push the Tossups, they have D+2 (Arizona and Nevada) and R+1 (North Dakota), predicting a 50-50 chamber with Pence breaking the tie.

If McCain doesn't vote do Dems control the Senate with a 50-49 majority? How does that work?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Inside Elections made four Senate changes (3 pro-Dem, 1 pro-Rep):

WV: Tossup -> Tilt D
WI: Tilt D -> Lean D
OH: Lean D -> Likely D
PA: Lean D -> Likely D
ND: Tossup -> Tilt R

Also, if forced to push the Tossups, they have D+2 (Arizona and Nevada) and R+1 (North Dakota), predicting a 50-50 chamber with Pence breaking the tie.

Pushing ND to Tilt R is quite bold. You could certainly make an argument for it, but there's still not a lot of polling and I think time is on Heitkamp's side (she's a better campaigner than Cramer).

It is perfectly reasonable.

If the election were to happen today, Cramer would probably win, but November is pretty much 50/50. I don't think Heitkamp is at enough of a disadvantage to warrant a Tilt R rating in any case, certainly not when Heller and the AZ seat are still Tossups.

Yeah, AZ and NV should be at lean D and tilt D respectfully.

The only way Democrats are more likely to pickup Arizona than Nevada is in the unlikely circumstance of Joe Arpaio winning the nomination.

I feel like Sinema is significantly stronger than Rosen, and honestly I think both seats flip but I am of the strange opinion that I am more confident in AZ flipping than NV.

[wesmoorenerd]

Also worth noting that Inside Elections sort of randomly just moved PA-08 (Matt Cartwright's seat) from Likely to Lean D. Why? No idea.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Also worth noting that Inside Elections sort of randomly just moved PA-08 (Matt Cartwright's seat) from Likely to Lean D. Why? No idea.

Because they're idiots.

[Thunder98]

Also worth noting that Inside Elections sort of randomly just moved PA-08 (Matt Cartwright's seat) from Likely to Lean D. Why? No idea.

Because they are drunk

[Gass3268]

RRH updated their rankings

Some high(low)lights:

CT-05 as a Toss Up
KY-03 as Likely D

[ON Progressive]

RRH updated their rankings

Some high(low)lights:

CT-05 as a Toss U
KY-03 as Likely D

LOL

[wesmoorenerd]

RRH updated their rankings

Some high(low)lights:

CT-05 as a Toss U
KY-03 as Likely D

LOL

Haha KY-03? That's nuts.

[The Other Castro]

Jeez what a joke.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Jeez what a joke.

[IceSpear]

Does Andrew make these ratings?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Does Andrew make these ratings?

Probably not.

[Zaybay]

RRH updated their rankings

Some high(low)lights:

CT-05 as a Toss U
KY-03 as Likely D

Ok, what? I mean, why? Why does everyone think CT is going to have some major R upheaval? I get it, Dan Malloy made mistakes, and the chambers are tied/tilt D, but why does everyone think the T effect will not hit here. Its already been shown in the many special elections that CT is being hit by the blue wave, and the nominee for the Rs, all of them besides Stewart, have embraced Trumpism and social conservatism. RI is more likely to flip than CT. CT-05 has a weak partisan lean, D+2, but the district has a Dem history and a good slate of nominees. CT-05 is going Democratic, its not going R. I dont care about all of the "but muh Dan Malloy" its going D. The environment is one of the most important factors, and it points to a D victory.


Generally, I actually like this rater, even though it has a right bias, because it does the lower positions we never hear about like SoS and AG. But this is disgusting.

Also, a side comment, why doesnt the Dem legislature that is likely to form before the census gerrymander the districts so we dont have the two weak lean seats? Should be easy to do.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

RRH updated their rankings

Some high(low)lights:

CT-05 as a Toss U
KY-03 as Likely D

Ok, what? I mean, why? I get the DCCC released polling that had her in the lead by a wide margin, but Likely D? I would put it at lean or tilt D, not likely. Also, CT-05 is going Democratic, its not going R. I dont care about all of the "but muh Dan Malloy" its going D.

Generally, I actually like this rater, even though it has a right bias, because it does the lower positions we never hear about like SoS and AG. But this is disgusting.

KY-03 is the Jefferson County District, that Yarmuth represents.

[Zaybay]

RRH updated their rankings

Some high(low)lights:

CT-05 as a Toss U
KY-03 as Likely D

oh, whoops, Ill edit my comment to just the CT point.
Ok, what? I mean, why? I get the DCCC released polling that had her in the lead by a wide margin, but Likely D? I would put it at lean or tilt D, not likely. Also, CT-05 is going Democratic, its not going R. I dont care about all of the "but muh Dan Malloy" its going D.

Generally, I actually like this rater, even though it has a right bias, because it does the lower positions we never hear about like SoS and AG. But this is disgusting.

KY-03 is the Jefferson County District, that Yarmuth represents.

Oh....Whoops. Was too quick to the draw it seems. Ill fix my comment.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1016275773408174081

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1016275773408174081

Nice.

[wesmoorenerd]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1016275773408174081

HOT DAMN!

Shame it has to be Hurd, I always considered him one of the more respectable GOP reps.

[LimoLiberal]

$10.7 million in Q2.


http://floridapolitics.com/archives/268274-rick-scott-touts-record-breaking-senate-fundraising-10-7-m-in-q2

You must be logged in to read this quote.