2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread
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Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread  (Read 170183 times)
lfromnj
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« Reply #1575 on: August 02, 2019, 09:28:42 PM »
« edited: August 02, 2019, 10:50:05 PM by Lfromnj stands with Sanchez. »
Also did some math on Wendy Davis's strength. She is kinda weak but I think her 2014 performance was more due to a lack of minority performance. Texas 21st is definetly a district where a lot depends more on white liberals. I checked the most "white suburban romney clinton area" which is west university place in Houston. Its 85% NHW and +15 romney but +20 clinton. Wendy Davis actually TIED this area in the middle of a GOP wave.

Also calculated a white lib Austin district which is two party vote 60 40 Obama romney , 70 30 clinton trump and 63.5 36.5 Davis,Abbot. So Davis is a weakish candidate with minorities although that could just be horrible wave turnout but I think she fits Texas 21st just fine.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #1576 on: August 02, 2019, 09:58:37 PM »
Quote from: Lfromnj stands with Sanchez. on August 02, 2019, 09:28:42 PM
Also did some math on Wendy Davis's strength. She is kinda weak but I think her 2014 performance was more due to a lack of minority performance. Texas 21st is definetly a district where a lot depends more on white liberals. I checked the most "white suburban romney clinton area" which is west university place in Houston. Its 85% NHW and +15 romney but +20 clinton. Wendy Davis actually TIED this area in the middle of a GOP wave.

Speaking of West University Place, it will be interesting to see if the Republicans try to primary sarah Davis out again. Of course that would be monumentally stupid since she’s the only Republican that can win that seat, but I guess they have their heads stuck up their asses
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ajc0918
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« Reply #1577 on: August 03, 2019, 11:33:49 AM »
Quote from: Pittsburgh For Kamala on August 02, 2019, 12:29:53 PM
The NRCC’s top recruit for Susan Brook’s district is out



ya love to see it
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #1578 on: August 03, 2019, 03:03:40 PM »
Quote from: ajc0918 on August 03, 2019, 11:33:49 AM
Quote from: Pittsburgh For Kamala on August 02, 2019, 12:29:53 PM
The NRCC’s top recruit for Susan Brook’s district is out



ya love to see it
Who said this was their top recruit? Its a red district with tons of GOP pols in the district.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1579 on: August 04, 2019, 10:32:20 AM »
Quote from: Young Conservative on August 03, 2019, 03:03:40 PM
Quote from: ajc0918 on August 03, 2019, 11:33:49 AM
Quote from: Pittsburgh For Kamala on August 02, 2019, 12:29:53 PM
The NRCC’s top recruit for Susan Brook’s district is out



ya love to see it
Who said this was their top recruit? Its a red district with tons of GOP pols in the district.

A former GOP mayor of a typically democratic city with a population of over 800K is obviously a very strong politician.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #1580 on: August 04, 2019, 12:03:35 PM »
I didn't see this posted anywhere, but the Democratic lead in the generic ballot is quite substantial right now:

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The Economist/YouGov survey of registered voters found that 48 percent of respondents said they would vote Democratic next year, 37 percent would vote Republican and 11 percent were not sure.

The 11 point lead is up from an Economist/YouGov poll conducted July 21-23, when Democrats held a 7 point advantage over Republicans.

I think there may be a point where we start asking whether or not Democrats increase their House majority and maybe by how much.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1581 on: August 04, 2019, 05:17:53 PM »
Poliquin will not run in ME-02:
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1582 on: August 04, 2019, 05:22:43 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 04, 2019, 05:17:53 PM
Poliquin will not run in ME-02:



Good riddance!
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Zyzz
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« Reply #1583 on: August 04, 2019, 09:27:53 PM »
Quote from: politicallefty on August 04, 2019, 12:03:35 PM
I didn't see this posted anywhere, but the Democratic lead in the generic ballot is quite substantial right now:

Link.
Quote
The Economist/YouGov survey of registered voters found that 48 percent of respondents said they would vote Democratic next year, 37 percent would vote Republican and 11 percent were not sure.

The 11 point lead is up from an Economist/YouGov poll conducted July 21-23, when Democrats held a 7 point advantage over Republicans.

I think there may be a point where we start asking whether or not Democrats increase their House majority and maybe by how much.

Dems won the House PV by over 10 in 2008 and won another 22 seats giving them 257. Another beat down of the GOP could be possible.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1584 on: August 04, 2019, 09:28:08 PM »
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #1585 on: August 04, 2019, 09:32:17 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 04, 2019, 09:28:08 PM


Is there going to be any TX Republicans left to turn off the lights when they last one leaves?
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #1586 on: August 04, 2019, 09:36:55 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 04, 2019, 09:28:08 PM

Similar situation to #GA06 where this will actually help the GOP hold it
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1587 on: August 04, 2019, 09:38:44 PM »
Quote from: Young Conservative on August 04, 2019, 09:36:55 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 04, 2019, 09:28:08 PM

Similar situation to #GA06 where this will actually help the GOP hold it

You do realize that GA-06 flipped to D, right?
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #1588 on: August 04, 2019, 10:20:31 PM »
Carter, Williams, McCaul, and even Wright (he has cancer) are all retirement possibilities as well.

This is a delight to watch.
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ltomlinson31
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« Reply #1589 on: August 04, 2019, 10:33:05 PM »
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #1590 on: August 04, 2019, 10:43:55 PM »
Quote from: Young Conservative on August 04, 2019, 09:36:55 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 04, 2019, 09:28:08 PM

Similar situation to #GA06 where this will actually help the GOP hold it

LOL
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #1591 on: August 05, 2019, 12:14:48 AM »
Quote from: ltomlinson31 on August 04, 2019, 10:33:05 PM

Plz no.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1592 on: August 05, 2019, 07:06:19 AM »
JD Scholten in for IA-04:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/05/us/politics/steve-king-jd-scholten-iowa.html
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #1593 on: August 05, 2019, 09:17:01 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 04, 2019, 09:38:44 PM
Quote from: Young Conservative on August 04, 2019, 09:36:55 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 04, 2019, 09:28:08 PM

Similar situation to #GA06 where this will actually help the GOP hold it

You do realize that GA-06 flipped to D, right?
Yes, I meant #GA07. My bad.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1594 on: August 05, 2019, 09:23:38 AM »
« Edited: August 05, 2019, 09:27:44 AM by Lfromnj stands with Sanchez. »
If Strickland wins the primary I am unironically calling this Lean D closer to Likely. He actually UNDERPERFORMED Cruz. This is basically a carbon copy of Ga 7th with it being a minority coalition district,R+9 PVI, +20 romney but +6 Trump but moves to the left of the state in 2018.
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S019
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« Reply #1595 on: August 05, 2019, 01:58:39 PM »
Quote from: Young Conservative on August 05, 2019, 09:17:01 AM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 04, 2019, 09:38:44 PM
Quote from: Young Conservative on August 04, 2019, 09:36:55 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 04, 2019, 09:28:08 PM

Similar situation to #GA06 where this will actually help the GOP hold it

You do realize that GA-06 flipped to D, right?
Yes, I meant #GA07. My bad.

The issue with this line of thinking is that the GA-07 primary is a mess, also with regards to TX-24, the TX GOP is a bit crazy and it's not past them to nominate Strickland, which would hand the Democrat (probably Olson or McDowell) a win.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1596 on: August 05, 2019, 02:01:50 PM »
His name is spelled Stickland, not Strickland.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1597 on: August 05, 2019, 02:03:14 PM »

Actually, Ted Strickland has switched parties and moved to Texas.
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Gracile
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« Reply #1598 on: August 05, 2019, 02:12:16 PM »
I totally missed this, but it appears that Cook Political Report moved PA-10 to Tossup from Lean R:

https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings/

I think this might be a touch generous this early. DePasquale is certainly a top recruit, but the district still has a Republican lean that could help Perry.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1599 on: August 05, 2019, 02:21:43 PM »
2014 CA-52 nominee Carl DeMaio is in for CA-50:

https://fox5sandiego.com/2019/08/05/former-san-diego-councilman-announces-2020-congressional-run/amp/
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