2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[libertpaulian]

NBC/Marist Poll of Indiana Coming

When?!

[ON Progressive]

PA-16 (Susquehanna):

Ron DiNicola (D) 51%
Mike Kelly (R) 47%

Source

The sample +4 Republican by registration (+5 Republican ID).

If this and the PA-11 number is true, the PA GOP is going to get absolutely smashed at a level I've never seen a state party in a purple state get slaughtered.

[Ebsy]

PA-16 (Susquehanna):

Ron DiNicola (D) 51%
Mike Kelly (R) 47%

Source

The sample +4 Republican by registration (+5 Republican ID).

If this and the PA-11 number is true, the PA GOP is going to get absolutely smashed at a level I've never seen a state party in a purple state get slaughtered.

Well, it happened in 2010.

[Morning in Atlas]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1057659147372716034

A bit of a shock poll.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1057659147372716034

A bit of a shock poll.

Are there any outside groups spending money here?

[Politician]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1057659147372716034

A bit of a shock poll.

Don't let an O-MT avatar see this.

[MT Treasurer]

This is garbage, but makes sense coming from the pollster that had Sununu up by 8, lol. Let me put it this way: Someone like Eddie Edwards isn’t winning in a district like NH-01, even if his opponent's name is Pappas.

[Oryxslayer]

Somethings in the water in PA, I wonder what it might be...

[Florida Man for Crime]

Somethings in the water in PA, I wonder what it might be...

You are thinking of Michigan.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Somethings in the water in PA, I wonder what it might be...

You are thinking of Michigan.

You're a bad, bad person.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, Oct. 25-30, 2543 RV

D: 46 (+1)
R: 38 (-1)

[wbrocks67]

Somethings in the water in PA, I wonder what it might be...

As a PA-er, I'm trying not to get too excited here. But I'm very interested to see the margins. Wagner/Barletta have truly been a disaster for the GOP here.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Morning Consult/Politico, Oct. 25-30, 2543 RV

D: 46 (+1)
R: 38 (-1)

FINALLY a quality GCB poll.

[Gass3268]

Morning Consult/Politico, Oct. 25-30, 2543 RV

D: 46 (+1)
R: 38 (-1)

FINALLY a quality GCB poll.

I’m not sure I’d put MC on the “quality” level.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Morning Consult/Politico, Oct. 25-30, 2543 RV

D: 46 (+1)
R: 38 (-1)

FINALLY a quality GCB poll.

I’m not sure I’d put MC on the “quality” level.

Well, at least it's not ridiculously swingy like Ipsos.

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats also won by 8 points in 2006. What I don’t understand is why 2006 wasn’t a worse year for Republicans when Bush was more unpopular than Trump, the economy was in worse shape than it is right now, and people were dying in Iraq. It seems kinda bizarre that Democrats might do better this year than in 2006.

[IceSpear]

Democrats also won by 8 points in 2006. What I don’t understand is why 2006 wasn’t a worse year for Republicans when Bush was more unpopular than Trump, the economy was in worse shape than it is right now, and people were dying in Iraq. It seems kinda bizarre that Democrats might do better this year than in 2006.

Both parties have a very high floor. In 2006 there were tons of polls showing Democrats up 15-20 points on the generic ballot, then Republicans surged at the very last second for literally no reason. Most likely because a win that big was never possible under any circumstances.

[libertpaulian]

Democrats also won by 8 points in 2006. What I don’t understand is why 2006 wasn’t a worse year for Republicans when Bush was more unpopular than Trump, the economy was in worse shape than it is right now, and people were dying in Iraq. It seems kinda bizarre that Democrats might do better this year than in 2006.

Both parties have a very high floor. In 2006 there were tons of polls showing Democrats up 15-20 points on the generic ballot, then Republicans surged at the very last second for literally no reason. Most likely because a win that big was never possible under any circumstances.

Outside a 1930 or 1974 type scenario, I don't see EITHER party winning the congressional popular vote by that much.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Democrats also won by 8 points in 2006. What I don’t understand is why 2006 wasn’t a worse year for Republicans when Bush was more unpopular than Trump, the economy was in worse shape than it is right now, and people were dying in Iraq. It seems kinda bizarre that Democrats might do better this year than in 2006.

Part of the change is dems have a much more reliable group in their coalition now: strong support from college educated whites.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Also, there's 2 brand spanking new polls that show Joe Donnelly ahead - after he voted no on Kavanaugh. So much for the idea that voting no on Kavanaugh would hurt him.

[libertpaulian]

Also, there's 2 brand spanking new polls that show Joe Donnelly ahead - after he voted no on Kavanaugh. So much for the idea that voting no on Kavanaugh would hurt him.

Suburbs are helping to pad his numbers, not to mention he does surprisingly well with rural voters.

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats also won by 8 points in 2006. What I don’t understand is why 2006 wasn’t a worse year for Republicans when Bush was more unpopular than Trump, the economy was in worse shape than it is right now, and people were dying in Iraq. It seems kinda bizarre that Democrats might do better this year than in 2006.

Both parties have a very high floor. In 2006 there were tons of polls showing Democrats up 15-20 points on the generic ballot, then Republicans surged at the very last second for literally no reason. Most likely because a win that big was never possible under any circumstances.

Why did they surge in 2006 but not this year? I get that Democrats hate Trump more than Bush, but overall, conditions were still more unfavorable for the GOP in 2006 than this year.

Part of the change is dems have a much more reliable group in their coalition now: strong support from college educated whites.

Good point, yeah. I guess that explains part of it.

[IceSpear]

Democrats also won by 8 points in 2006. What I don’t understand is why 2006 wasn’t a worse year for Republicans when Bush was more unpopular than Trump, the economy was in worse shape than it is right now, and people were dying in Iraq. It seems kinda bizarre that Democrats might do better this year than in 2006.

Both parties have a very high floor. In 2006 there were tons of polls showing Democrats up 15-20 points on the generic ballot, then Republicans surged at the very last second for literally no reason. Most likely because a win that big was never possible under any circumstances.

Why did they surge in 2006 but not this year? I get that Democrats hate Trump more than Bush, but overall, conditions were still more unfavorable for the GOP in 2006 than this year.

Part of the change is dems have a much more reliable group in their coalition now: strong support from college educated whites.

Good point, yeah. I guess that explains part of it.

The Dems' lead was a lot gaudier in 2006 than it is now, so simply political gravity re-asserting itself I would assume.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Democrats also won by 8 points in 2006. What I don’t understand is why 2006 wasn’t a worse year for Republicans when Bush was more unpopular than Trump, the economy was in worse shape than it is right now, and people were dying in Iraq. It seems kinda bizarre that Democrats might do better this year than in 2006.

LMAO at assuming a Dem collapse can't happen in the last week...this year. 
Both parties have a very high floor. In 2006 there were tons of polls showing Democrats up 15-20 points on the generic ballot, then Republicans surged at the very last second for literally no reason. Most likely because a win that big was never possible under any circumstances.

Why did they surge in 2006 but not this year? I get that Democrats hate Trump more than Bush, but overall, conditions were still more unfavorable for the GOP in 2006 than this year.

Part of the change is dems have a much more reliable group in their coalition now: strong support from college educated whites.

Good point, yeah. I guess that explains part of it.

The Dems' lead was a lot gaudier in 2006 than it is now, so simply political gravity re-asserting itself I would assume.

[wbrocks67]

WaPo has new Battleground Districts poll. 69 battleground districts, 63 held by Republicans.

Democrats 50%
Republicans 46%

Their last poll was D+3.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/democrats-in-prime-position-to-take-house-but-battleground-district-poll-shows-wild-cards-remain/2018/11/01/92da7754-dcb9-11e8-b732-3c72cbf131f2_story.html?utm_term=.e47d4f442047