Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[Gass3268]

Arizona: OH Predictive Insights, Aug. 13-14, 600 LV

Approve 47
Disapprove 52

In their previous poll (May), approval was 50 but I don't have the disapproval number.  In October, it was 54/46.

Amazing to see Arizona zoom to the left of Nevada (rolls eyes at Gravis).

[Sir Mohamed]

Arizona: OH Predictive Insights, Aug. 13-14, 600 LV

Approve 47
Disapprove 52

In their previous poll (May), approval was 50 but I don't have the disapproval number.  In October, it was 54/46.

Amazing to see Arizona zoom to the left of Nevada (rolls eyes at Gravis).

I thought this was actually OH.

Trump's numbers among independents are horrible across the board.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Arizona: OH Predictive Insights, Aug. 13-14, 600 LV

Approve 47
Disapprove 52

In their previous poll (May), approval was 50 but I don't have the disapproval number.  In October, it was 54/46.

Amazing to see Arizona zoom to the left of Nevada (rolls eyes at Gravis).

I thought this was actually OH.

Trump's numbers among independents are horrible across the board.

I always think the same thing with this pollster.  I wish they'd change their name.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Arizona: OH Predictive Insights, Aug. 13-14, 600 LV

Approve 47
Disapprove 52

In their previous poll (May), approval was 50 but I don't have the disapproval number.  In October, it was 54/46.

Amazing to see Arizona zoom to the left of Nevada (rolls eyes at Gravis).

The approval number in the new Gravis NV poll is suspect (the crosstabs make no sense at all), which is why I didn't post it here.

[Dr. Arch]

Arizona: OH Predictive Insights, Aug. 13-14, 600 LV

Approve 47
Disapprove 52

In their previous poll (May), approval was 50 but I don't have the disapproval number.  In October, it was 54/46.

Amazing to see Arizona zoom to the left of Nevada (rolls eyes at Gravis).

The approval number in the new Gravis NV poll is suspect (the crosstabs make no sense at all), which is why I didn't post it here.

Remember to never trust NV polls. It's probably more reliable to extrapolate from neighboring states. If AZ is at around 47/52, then NV could be around 44/55.

[ProudModerate2]

Can someone share some light into why (over the last month of so) Rasmussen has suddenly "turned" on trump approval numbers, and is more in-line with the other pollsters?
What changed with them? I mean the difference is big.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Can someone share some light into why (over the last month of so) Rasmussen has suddenly "turned" on trump approval numbers, and is more in-line with the other pollsters?
What changed with them? I mean the difference is big.

This is purely speculation, but I think the most likely explanation is that they've finally adjusted their LV screen after its awful performance in the midterms.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1163081384640024576

I'm willing to assume that no more than one in a hundred Americans, which is thought Trump's language on Twitter had a contribution to the El Paso and Dayton shootings but, grotesquely, support that fact.

Subtracting at 1%, though, how on Earth does Trump ever get more than 47% of the vote? In other words, how can any person with a soul agree that his race-baiting scapegoating pronouncements even in part contributed to the shootings, still vote for him?

[Badger]

Unhappy with the result, Trump says there is "something going on" with the Fox poll:

"Well, Fox has always given me -- I'll tell you, Fox is a lot different than it used to be, I can tell you that. ... Fox has changed. And my worst polls have always been from Fox. There's something going on at Fox, I'll tell you right now. And I'm not happy with it."

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/19/politics/donald-trump-fox-news/index.html

As I posted in another thread, this is the Trump filter:

Good numbers for Trump = real.  Bad numbers for Trump = fake.

It applies to polls, economic news, or anything else.

The delusion isn't limited to Trump himself, but to many of his supporters.  I just don't get the madness.  It's got to be some kind of mental illness on those supporters who claim falsehoods at fact.

See my signature

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1163081384640024576

I'm willing to assume that no more than one in a hundred Americans, which is thought Trump's language on Twitter had a contribution to the El Paso and Dayton shootings but, grotesquely, support that fact.

Subtracting at 1%, though, how on Earth does Trump ever get more than 47% of the vote? In other words, how can any person with a soul agree that his race-baiting scapegoating pronouncements even in part contributed to the shootings, still vote for him?

For Trump, 47% wins because that his Democratic opponent is piling up votes om the West Coast, New England, the Middle Atlantic states (except Pennsylvania), and Illinois while scraping by just about everywhere else. Winning the 29 electoral votes by a fraction of a percent means just as many electoral votes as winning New York State by a 75-25 margin. Winning Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin each by less than 1% by a Republican means even more than winning California by a similar 75-25 margin.

Trump may have won by debasing politics so much that many people who vote based more upon their feelings stayed home if Trump made them feel bad about American politics. His fanatical supporters still turned out to vote, and that explains how we got him.

Some votes matter far more than others depending on where they are and whether those voters can build a majority coalition.

This said, I see Trump losing big       

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Unhappy with the result, Trump says there is "something going on" with the Fox poll:

"Well, Fox has always given me -- I'll tell you, Fox is a lot different than it used to be, I can tell you that. ... Fox has changed. And my worst polls have always been from Fox. There's something going on at Fox, I'll tell you right now. And I'm not happy with it."

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/19/politics/donald-trump-fox-news/index.html

As I posted in another thread, this is the Trump filter:

Good numbers for Trump = real.  Bad numbers for Trump = fake.

It applies to polls, economic news, or anything else.

The delusion isn't limited to Trump himself, but to many of his supporters.  I just don't get the madness.  It's got to be some kind of mental illness on those supporters who claim falsehoods at fact.

Call it bubble think, a particularly virulent version of groupthink.

When you spend all your time listening to likeminded people, it can be difficult to believe that those outside your bubble don't also share the bubble's views.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, Aug. 16-18, 1998 RV (1-week change)

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (+1)

Strongly approve 24 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 43 (nc)

Biden 42, Trump 35
Sanders 40, Trump 35
Warren 35, Trump 35
Trump 35, Harris 32
Trump 35, Booker 28
Trump 36, O'Rourke 27
Trump 35, Buttigieg 27

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN/SSRS, Aug. 15-18, 1001 adults including 886 RV (prior poll June 28-30)

Adults:

Approve 40 (-3)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

RV:

Approve 41 (-4)
Disapprove 54 (+3)


This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since the government shutdown.

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG economic survey (monthly), Aug. 17-20, 1100 adults including an unspecified number of RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (-1)

RV:

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 56 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Aug. 17-20, 1500 adults including 1111 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 50 (nc)
 
Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-1)

Generic D 40 (-2), Trump 36 (+1)

RV:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

Strongly approve 28 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-2)

Generic D 48 (-2), Trump 40 (+1)

GCB (RV only): D 47 (-1), R 39 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data tracker (weekly), Aug. 19-20, 1117 adults including 985 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 55 (+3)

Strongly approve 21 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+2)

RV:

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (+1)

Strongly approve 23 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+1)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

News about the possible recession and his trade war’s consequences are hitting Trump , I’m guessing.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I don't know why people needed to wait for news about the recession, because WE'VE BEEN LIVING IT FOR THE PAST 2 YEARS!!!

[Hammy]

I don't know why people needed to wait for news about the recession, because WE'VE BEEN LIVING IT FOR THE PAST 2 YEARS!!!

Unfortunately "as long as it's not going to affect me personally, it doesn't exist" has always been most Americans' mindset. Once more people start realizing that they, too, might actually be affected by what's already affecting tens of millions of others, is the only time they wake up to it.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Unfortunately "as long as it's not going to affect me personally, it doesn't exist" has always been most Americans' mindset. Once more people start realizing that they, too, might actually be affected by what's already affecting tens of millions of others, is the only time they wake up to it.

I think the situation now is sort of the opposite. It's affecting people, but they won't admit it unless a news outlet verifies it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP/NORC, Aug. 15-19, 1058 adults (change from June)

Approve 36 (-2)
Disapprove 62 (+2)

R: 79/20
D: 5/95
I: 31/65

Strongly approve 21 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+3)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since the shutdown.

[Person Man]

I can see that's where his numbers would be consistently if there was a recession. I don't think they can fall any lower than that unless he somehow wins reelection and then a recession happens. Unless Trump has truly taken over the GOP and its addiction to fad right-wing political philosophy ("Fusionism","Neoconservatism","Compassionate Conservatism", "Alt-Right/Lite", etc..), I can see the party machine sensing that he has outlived their purpose for him.(that they originally didn't want anyways) Then because his presidency is in tatters and him not able to run again anyways,  they will throw him under the bus so they can "run against themselves" in 2024. At this point the surrogate for the third term would probably but not necessarily be Pence.

[pbrower2a]

AP/NORC, Aug. 15-19, 1058 adults (change from June)

Approve 36 (-2)
Disapprove 62 (+2)

R: 79/20
D: 5/95
I: 31/65

Strongly approve 21 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+3)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since the shutdown.

Possible outlier? Change first appears as outliers. The strong disapproval has changed less than the margin of error, and it is now 10% above total approval. But note well that much of the not-so-strong disapproval now seems significantly higher. People go from neither disapproval nor disapproval or from slight approval to slight disapproval unless one sudden event destroys all credibility in a large constituency.

100-DIS gives an estimated 38% vote share for the President, which is just worse than for Hoover in 1932.

[Gass3268]

Monmouth:

40% Approve (-1)
53% Disapprove (+3)

Source

[GeorgiaModerate]

Monmouth:

40% Approve (-1)
53% Disapprove (+3)

Source

A few more details: Aug. 16-20, 800 adults including 689 RV (change from June).

Adults:

Approve 40 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+3)

RV:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+2)