New Tradesports rankings

[Reignman]

I think people are still betting on Giuliani because of the fluidity of the race and how it's basically a big free-for-all.

[Likely Voter]

we all know that he will lose and lose badly in both IA and NH. And the winner or winners from those two will both get bump in the national polls and subsequent state polls. Of this there really can be no doubt. Is this priced into the market? Or will all the Rudy buyers panic in mid January when they see is is running 3rd-5th in every state poll for the rest of the month and 3rd nationally

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

DEMOCRATS

Nomination
Clinton 67.1
Obama 24.0
Edwards 5.5
Gore 2.0
Richardson 0.2
Biden 0.2

Iowa
Clinton 40.0
Obama 40.0
Edwards 23.2
Richardson 0.1
Field 0.1

New Hampshire
Clinton 56.1
Obama 40.0
Edwards 3.9
Richardson 0.1
Dodd 0.1
Field 0.1

REPUBLICANS

Nomination
Giuliani 30.0
Romney 22.4
McCain 18.0
Huckabee 14.6
Paul 6.7
Thompson 3.6
Rice 0.5
Gingrich 0.3
Bloomberg 0.2
Hunter 0.1

Iowa
Huckabee 59.9
Romney 29.0
McCain 3.0
Thompson 1.6
Giuliani 0.1
Field 5.5

New Hampshire
Romney 52.0
McCain 40.0
Huckabee 4.0
Giuliani 1.0
Thompson 0.1
Field 8.9

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

A record low of 0.3% odds for the nomination of the non top 4 Democrats.

Romney surges from 29 to 65 in IA.

DEMOCRATS

Nomination
Clinton 67.3
Obama 24.9
Edwards 5.7
Gore 2.0
Richardson 0.2
Biden 0.1

Iowa
Obama 44.9
Clinton 38.7
Edwards 22.0
Richardson 0.1
Field 0.1

New Hampshire
Clinton 57.3
Obama 44.0
Edwards 1.6
Richardson 0.1
Dodd 0.1
Field 0.1

REPUBLICANS

Nomination
Giuliani 30.4
Romney 22.9
McCain 18.9
Huckabee 14.5
Paul 7.0
Thompson 3.6
Rice 0.5
Gingrich 0.3
Bloomberg 0.2
Hunter 0.1

Iowa
Huckabee 65.0
Romney 35.0
McCain 2.0
Thompson 2.0
Giuliani 0.1
Field 3.3

New Hampshire
Romney 56.0
McCain 32.0
Huckabee 3.8
Giuliani 1.2
Thompson 0.3
Field 5.0

[© tweed]

you flipped the Huck/Romney numbers in IA.  but last transaction isn't terribly meaningful as it's wacky right now; the current IA bids are Huck 36.0, Romney 33.4.

[© tweed]

McCain has surged to 20.2 (with a higher bid/ask) to hit 20 for what appears to be the first time since Memorial Day.

[Lief 🗽]

Edwards is way undervalued in Iowa. Clinton is over-valued in NH.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Edwards's odds in IA and NH are up.
It's a 3-way race for the nomination on the Republican side.

DEMOCRATS

Nomination
Clinton 67.5
Obama 24.0
Edwards 6.1
Gore 2.0
Richardson 0.2
Biden 0.2

Iowa
Obama 40.6
Clinton 33.5
Edwards 25.0
Richardson 0.1
Field 0.1

New Hampshire
Clinton 54.1
Obama 41.0
Edwards 5.0
Richardson 0.1
Dodd 0.1
Field 0.1

REPUBLICANS

Nomination
Giuliani 30.0
Romney 24.3
McCain 21.2
Huckabee 11.4
Paul 7.0
Thompson 3.0
Rice 0.4
Gingrich 0.3
Bloomberg 0.2
Hunter 0.1

Iowa
Romney 51.1
Huckabee 41.10
McCain 2.0
Thompson 1.5
Giuliani 0.1
Field 4.3

New Hampshire
Romney 53.0
McCain 38.9
Huckabee 3.6
Giuliani 1.2
Thompson 0.3
Field 5.1

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Giuliani still in the lead? Jesus Christ.

[© tweed]

Giuliani still in the lead? Jesus Christ.

and he's had a good couple of days on the market, too.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Based on the Iowa and NH numbers it appears that many seem to think Giuliani will get slaughtered in Iowa and NH but still win the nomination anyway. Makes no sense. Hell Thompson is running better than Giuliani in the early states and he's at 1/10th of the value. They should be about equal.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's an interesting question: What happens with Paul if he pulls off an upset and hits 3rd in Iowa or NH? Does his bubble surge even more into double digits?

[Mr. Morden]

Based on the Iowa and NH numbers it appears that many seem to think Giuliani will get slaughtered in Iowa and NH but still win the nomination anyway. Makes no sense.

As I've said before, many of the people betting on Intrade seem to have no understanding of how the primaries work.  They give him well below a 10% chance of winning IA, NH, or SC, and just a 12% chance of winning MI, which should mean that he's a serious longshot to win the nomination, but no.  Somehow he's still got a 55% chance of winning FL and a 65% chance of winning PA?!?  As I've said before, the PA number is completely crazy because the PA primary is so late that it'll just go for whoever the presumptive nominee is at that point, so the numbers for PA should closely match the numbers for the nomination.  Yet Giuliani is given a 65% chance of winning the state while he has a 30% chance of winning the nomination.  None of it makes any sense.

Now sure, you can say that it's different people betting in the different markets, but when you get big disparities like that, you'd think that some sensible people would start dropping some big $ on some of these low volume markets to take advantage of the insanity, and the prices would converge on more reasonable levels....but I guess not.

[© tweed]

Romney has passed Giuliani for the lead in the Iowa Electronic Markets.



at the end of yesterday it was

Romney 29.9
Giuliani 26.2
McCain 20.2
Huckabee 12.2
Rest of Field 7.3
Thompson 4.0

[© tweed]

Democrats



Clinton 64.0
Obama 25.5
Edwards 10.2
Rest of Field 2.2

[© tweed]

Huckabee's in single digits for the first time since the beginning of the month.  McCain is the main beneficiary.  Edwards is on fire on the Dem side, with Clinton also gaining and Obama crashing.  he might be in teens by the end of the day (year), which is where he started December.  his December graph looks an awful lot like a perfect parabola.

[Mr. Morden]

Giuliani, Romney, and McCain are all very close:

Giuliani 26.6
Romney 25.9
McCain 23.0
Huckabee 8.0
Paul 8.0
Thompson 3.5

Odds of running as a 3rd party / independent candidate:

Bloomberg 22.9
Paul 40.0

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton and Edwards' nomination odds gain at Obama's expense. IA is clearly a 3-way race; Edwards is now slightly above Obama.

Giuliani, Romney, and McCain are in a 3-way race for the nomination, with Huckabee dropping.

DEMOCRATS

Nomination
Clinton 69.5
Obama 20.6
Edwards 7.6
Gore 1.9
Biden 0.3
Richardson 0.2

Iowa
Clinton 36.0
Edwards 34.2
Obama 30.5
Richardson 0.1
Field 0.1

REPUBLICANS

Nomination
Giuliani 26.6
Romney 25.9
McCain 22.8
Huckabee 9.0
Paul 8.0
Thompson 3.5
Rice 0.4
Gingrich 0.3
Bloomberg 0.2
Hunter 0.1

Iowa
Romney 50.5
Huckabee 44.0
McCain 0.4
Thompson 0.3
Field 4.8

[© tweed]

McCain > Romney on RepNom (22.5 v 22.1)

[Mr. Morden]

So we're back to where we were back in April, with Intrade rating the top 3 as:

1) Giuliani
2) McCain
3) Romney

[Reignman]

I take a couple points away from McCain and give 'em to Huckabee.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The last changes for the nomination are reversed; Obama gains big at Obama and Edwards' expenses.  Dodd is back on the list.

In IA: Obama goes from 3rd to first place; Edwards plunges.

McCain now only slightly trails Romney for 2nd for the nomination. Thompson's crash and burn continues.

Huckabee retakes the advantage in IA.

DEMOCRATS

Nomination
Clinton 66.0
Obama 26.0
Edwards 6.4
Gore 2.0
Richardson 0.3
Dodd 0.2
Biden 0.1

Iowa
Obama 49.0
Clinton 40.0
Edwards 15.1
Richardson 0.1
Field 0.1

REPUBLICANS

Nomination
Giuliani 28.8
Romney 24.7
McCain 23.4
Huckabee 9.1
Paul 7.8
Thompson 3.0
Rice 0.4
Gingrich 0.3
Bloomberg 0.1
Hunter 0.1

Iowa
Huckabee 49.5
Romney 44.0
Thompson 0.8
McCain 0.4
Field 4.2

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama and Edwards gain at Clinton's expense for the nomination. Edwards gains at Clinton's expense in IA.

Romney falls, with McCain gaining to pass him. Thompson's crash and burn continues. Huckabee surges in IA, McCain posts a gain, too.

DEMOCRATS

Nomination
Clinton 64.4
Obama 27.6
Edwards 7.0
Gore 1.9
Richardson 0.3
Dodd 0.2
Biden 0.1

Iowa
Obama 50.0
Clinton 30.0
Edwards 24.0
Richardson 0.1
Field 0.1

REPUBLICANS

Nomination
Giuliani 29.0
McCain 24.5
Romney 22.8
Huckabee 9.5
Paul 7.3
Thompson 2.0
Rice 0.6
Gingrich 0.3
Bloomberg 0.1
Hunter 0.1

Iowa
Huckabee 65.0
Romney 37.0
McCain 2.9
Thompson 0.8
Field 4.0

[Mr. Morden]

Anyone want to predict what the nomination markets will look like 48 hours from now, the day after Iowa?  Or better yet, what kind of Iowa results would be required for the Intrade "frontrunner" in each party to switch to a different candidate?  Is it possible that Clinton loses so badly tomorrow that she loses her lead on the Intrade Dem. nomination market?  How badly would she have to lose for that to happen?  How well does Romney have to do tomorrow in order to surpass Giuliani on Intrade?  And are there any scenarios that would put McCain or Huckabee in the lead in the GOP nomination market after tomorrow night?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Anyone want to predict what the nomination markets will look like 48 hours from now, the day after Iowa?  Or better yet, what kind of Iowa results would be required for the Intrade "frontrunner" in each party to switch to a different candidate?  Is it possible that Clinton loses so badly tomorrow that she loses her lead on the Intrade Dem. nomination market?  How badly would she have to lose for that to happen?  How well does Romney have to do tomorrow in order to surpass Giuliani on Intrade?  And are there any scenarios that would put McCain or Huckabee in the lead in the GOP nomination market after tomorrow night?

My guess is that Huckabee narrowly carries Iowa, and gets an immediate boost back to where he was—around 20.  A solid chunk of that is gonna come from Romney and Giuliani, who should wind up down near the bottom of the pack (maybe even behind Paul).  McCain may drop slightly if his numbers are weak, but I expect he'll do "better than expected," which should leave his numbers largely stagnant at the low-20s.

For Romney to surpass Giuliani, I think he needs to seriously trounce Huckabee.  Probably to the tune of 15 points.  And Rudy would, again, need to finish at the bottom of the pack.

Clinton's value at 66 is unsustainable.  If she wins Iowa, that number is gonna bounce up to 80.  If she loses Iowa to Obama, she's gonna drop to 50 or lower, with Obama gaining the slack.  If Edwards wins Iowa, he's gonna bounce up to 25 or better, with sizable chunks coming from Obama and Hillary.

If Edwards loses Iowa, the price per share is gonna drop by around 75%.  Unless it's a near miss second place finish to Hillary, which might even boost his shares at the expense of Obama.