2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Rowan]

Monmouth/Gannett NJ-Gov

Christie 50%
Corzine 36%

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP27_1.pdf

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Democrats released a poll showing Corzine trailing Christie by 7. Things are grim indeed when an incumbent's campaign releases a poll showing them down, nevermind by seven.

[Verily]

Corzine is threatening a state takeover of the Borough of Ridgefield unless the mayor resigns after being indicted on corruption charges. He's the only one of the three mayors who has held out against the pressure to resign.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Corzine is threatening a state takeover of the Borough of Ridgefield unless the mayor resigns after being indicted on corruption charges. He's the only one of the three mayors who has held out against the pressure to resign.

But notably, Corzine has not applied the same kind of pressure to Jersey City, where city council president Mariano Vega, also arrested, similarly refuses to step down.

[Verily]

Corzine is threatening a state takeover of the Borough of Ridgefield unless the mayor resigns after being indicted on corruption charges. He's the only one of the three mayors who has held out against the pressure to resign.

But notably, Corzine has not applied the same kind of pressure to Jersey City, where city council president Mariano Vega, also arrested, similarly refuses to step down.

True--it's aimed actually at all cities with mayors indicted for corruption, so at least Carlstadt in Bergen would also be taken over. (The Republican mayor of Carlstadt was indicted for corruption back in May, although it got a lot less press than the current indictments because it was a relatively isolated case; Suarez in Ridgefield is a Democrat.) There was an article in the Record about it today, and the Record only cares about Bergen and Passaic, but I'm sure there are towns elsewhere that it would affect as well.

The problem with Jersey City is that it doesn't seem like the state government could legitimately usurp mayoral authority in Jersey City without the mayor himself being under indictment--even though of course a lot of the other leading figures in Jersey City are in trouble. Yes, you could call it a political ploy, but there are legal reasons why it can't be done as well.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Indeed, I'm glad he's doing it, but it's just a ploy.  Corzine would have never been able to get away with taking over Hoboken, or even Seacaucus.

Ridgefield is getting taken over because it's small (10,000 residents) and because it's not in Hudson.

[DownWithTheLeft]

In the last three polls Christie's lead is 14, 15, and 15.  This race is slowly becoming laughable, Corzine is doing nothing but moving in the wrong direction for months now with nothing to help him in sight

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

For anyone interested in a more "inside baseball" look at New Jersey politics, take a look at PolitickerNJ.com's series of articles yesterday on State Sen. Stack (D-Hudson).  Basically, Stack is playing the game perfectly—he's campaigning with Chris Christie and Jon Corzine.

And the reason why he can get away with it is the same reason why Republicans found themselves in power for much of the 1990s: Democrats are again breaking off into a North Jersey versus South Jersey power struggle. Both Codey (North Jersey) and Sweeney (South Jersey) need Stack's support in their post-November battle to be the state's top Democrat, so no one will actively punish Stack for his "disloyalty."

[DownWithTheLeft]

For anyone interested in a more "inside baseball" look at New Jersey politics, take a look at PolitickerNJ.com's series of articles yesterday on State Sen. Stack (D-Hudson).  Basically, Stack is playing the game perfectly—he's campaigning with Chris Christie and Jon Corzine.

And the reason why he can get away with it is the same reason why Republicans found themselves in power for much of the 1990s: Democrats are again breaking off into a North Jersey versus South Jersey power struggle. Both Codey (North Jersey) and Sweeney (South Jersey) need Stack's support in their post-November battle to be the state's top Democrat, so no one will actively punish Stack for his "disloyalty."

Codey and Sweeney as the political bosses?  I also thought the North/South thing was a product of Ferriero and Norcross.  Face it, for some reason, and I guess a pretty good reason, the Democrats up north are fading fast without Big Joe

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Codey and Sweeney as the political bosses?  I also thought the North/South thing was a product of Ferriero and Norcross.  Face it, for some reason, and I guess a pretty good reason, the Democrats up north are fading fast without Big Joe

Ferriero's money played a large part in mending the North/South divide, which was around long before you were even born.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Codey and Sweeney as the political bosses?  I also thought the North/South thing was a product of Ferriero and Norcross.  Face it, for some reason, and I guess a pretty good reason, the Democrats up north are fading fast without Big Joe

Ferriero's money played a large part in mending the North/South divide, which was around long before you were even born.

I wasn't implying that it hasn't always existed (hell there is a huge divide between the people of north and south), but I thought Ferriero really was what kept it alive

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

More of that perfect storm.  Hudson County has a historical place in New Jersey as the most consistent and reliably Democratic area of the state (back when the Newark suburbs were heavily Republican and Camden supported law-and-order Republicans). It's change quite a bit over the years—it's still heavily Democratic, but now it's Latino voters who make up the bulk of the vote (40%), not whites (35%).

Hudson has been worth a 60,000+ vote margin for Corzine in his last two races, but this year... well, PolitickerNJ offers this:

Union City: "The most sought after endorsement of the 2009 gubernatorial campaign might be Brian Stack, a Democratic State Senator and the Mayor of Union City, who says he remains undecided in the contest between Jon Corzine and Christopher Christie... Stack has told people he will make up his mind soon, but he's more likely to extend the courtship, and see where the race is going in October.

For Corzine, the loss of Stack's support - or the involvement of his political organization -- could mean 5,000 votes."

Hoboken: "The new Hoboken Mayor, Dawn Zimmer, is less than enthralled with the governor, her constituent..."

Secaucus: "Secaucus Democrats are worried about stopping an independent councilman running for mayor from losing to whomever the local organization picks to replace Dennis Elwell on the November ballot."

Bayonne: "In Bayonne, some supporters of former Mayor (and machine boss) Joseph Doria are unhappy because Corzine asked Doria to resign his cabinet post just hours after the FBI raided his home and office..."

Jersey City: "Jersey City, which gave Corzine a 25,694 vote margin four years ago, is a complete mess.  Mayor Jerramiah Healy, never Corzine's biggest fan to begin with, is dealing with the effects of the federal corruption probe that nabbed the City Council President, the Deputy Mayor, a bunch of local officials, and the late Jack Shaw.  Healy's political rival, Councilman Steven Fulop, beat the crap out of Corzine yesterday for not speaking out against corruption in Jersey City.  Joseph Cardwell, also arrested last month, is one of the people Democrats count on to turn out votes; he'll be on the sidelines this fall."

[DownWithTheLeft]

Christie +20?

[Holmes]

Christie +100

[DownWithTheLeft]

Looking at these pictures (and my prior meetings with Christie) have inspried this

Pick the higher:

Percentage points Christie wins
Amount of donuts Christie will eat in celebration
Percentage points higher body fat Christie has than Corzine

[fezzyfestoon]

Hudson County should be very interesting.  I'm wondering if Christie might even be able to drag Corzine into the 50s.  And I'm also wondering if Christie can cut Corzine down to four counties (Hudson, Essex, Mercer, Camden).  Corzine's got money problems, grassroots problems, loyalty problems, and worst of all machine problems.  I honestly can't see him being able to make it into a single digit loss even in the best case scenario.  Which makes me worry about the prospect of Democrats pulling another Torricelli.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Hudson County should be very interesting.  I'm wondering if Christie might even be able to drag Corzine into the 50s.  And I'm also wondering if Christie can cut Corzine down to four counties (Hudson, Essex, Mercer, Camden).  Corzine's got money problems, grassroots problems, loyalty problems, and worst of all machine problems.  I honestly can't see him being able to make it into a single digit loss even in the best case scenario.  Which makes me worry about the prospect of Democrats pulling another Torricelli.

Christie will probably win a town here or there (he'll probably do well in Secaucus, for instance). The machine is great, but a lot of the people they (sometimes literally) drag out to the polls will show up anyway. Low 60s.

FYI, if Corzine loses by the kind of margins the polls are currently showing, he won't even win Mercer.

[Ronnie]

Corzine is really in desperation mode:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0809/25853.html

Looking at these pictures (and my prior meetings with Christie) have inspried this

Pick the higher:

Percentage points Christie wins
Amount of donuts Christie will eat in celebration
Percentage points higher body fat Christie has than Corzine

[fezzyfestoon]

Hudson County should be very interesting.  I'm wondering if Christie might even be able to drag Corzine into the 50s.  And I'm also wondering if Christie can cut Corzine down to four counties (Hudson, Essex, Mercer, Camden).  Corzine's got money problems, grassroots problems, loyalty problems, and worst of all machine problems.  I honestly can't see him being able to make it into a single digit loss even in the best case scenario.  Which makes me worry about the prospect of Democrats pulling another Torricelli.

Christie will probably win a town here or there (he'll probably do well in Secaucus, for instance). The machine is great, but a lot of the people they (sometimes literally) drag out to the polls will show up anyway. Low 60s.

FYI, if Corzine loses by the kind of margins the polls are currently showing, he won't even win Mercer.

Yeah, low 60s is what I'm thinking of as the most likely.  And as far as Mercer goes, I always thought of it as the most partisan area in the state.  I just can't see it voting for Christie.  And I doubt Christie will win by 15 points.  If it were tomorrow, I'd probably guess around 11 or 12.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Corzine is really in desperation mode:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0809/25853.html

Corzine's been using that line of attack for months.  It's pretty lame, but it's all he has.

Yeah, low 60s is what I'm thinking of as the most likely.  And as far as Mercer goes, I always thought of it as the most partisan area in the state.  I just can't see it voting for Christie.  And I doubt Christie will win by 15 points.  If it were tomorrow, I'd probably guess around 11 or 12.

The areas most likely to provide the padding to Christie's win are the areas that went Republican in 1991, where a 15 point statewide GOP lead is comparable.  That puts Christie in a situation where he slaughters in LD 14 and marginally wins LD15.  He'll lose Trenton, but think of the margin he's going to get in Hamilton.

In 1993, Christie Whitman barely won statewide but she carried Mercer by 5.  She lost it on her next go around by around 10.  If Christie wins by 15, he wins Mercer—period.

[Ronnie]

CORZINE-MENTUM

Christie: 48%
Corzine: 40%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2009/governor/nj/new_jersey_governor_corzine_vs_christie-1051.html

[Zarn]

LOL Daily Kos

[DownWithTheLeft]

I wish Conan still posted, he'd be defending Corzine to death and claiming he is still the favorite

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Corzine has cut Christie's lead to 9 (Corzine improved his standing slightly among Democrats when compared to the last Q poll with Christie's 12-point lead), but there's some troubling news for Democrats in the latest Quinnipiac, namely:

The New Jersey Legislature overall has an upside-down approval rating of 23%-63%, and but voters are split over which party they would like to see in control of the State Assembly after the November election.  45% say they would prefer the Republicans take control, while 43% want the Democrats to keep their majority, according to the Quinnipiac University poll.

Independents want to see the GOP in control, 49%–28%.

The numbers are lopsidedly stronger for the GOP in North Jersey, presumably in part because of the ethics issue.  Overall, voters say 50–15% that Democrats are associated more with corruption than the GOP, with Independents feeling even stronger, 56%-9%. Phillyland voters prefer Democrats in charge, 51–38%.

This would suggest that Republicans' best shot for winning Assembly seats would be in places like LD36 and 38 rather than LD 1 and 3.

[Tender Branson]

42% ?

A new high for Corzine ?

Go Jon !