MN Sen Recount (UPDATE: Stuart Smalley certified winner, lawsuit forthcoming)

[Lunar]

The Frankenfolks are claiming that they have Coleman's lead under 100. See TPM.

Due to easily resolved challenged ballots, that's reasonable (IF they are counting their own stupid ones like the thumbprint one too, which I doubt).

[Bacon King]

My opinion on those challenges:

1. Reject. The law is kind of silly but unless it gets overturned this shouldn't count.
2. Franken. Pencil argument is kind of silly.
3. Depends. Looks to me like someone made an X and then realized they had to fill in the circle. If they made the same mistake on the presidential box above it's clearly a vote for Coleman but otherwise it should count for no one.
4. Coleman.

1. Franken
2. Honestly depends on how specific the law is, but should count for Coleman I think.
3. Reject it.
4. Franken
5. Franken
6. Franken
7. Coleman
8. Franken
9. Barkley
10. Barkley
11. Impossible to determine whether it's a line to cross out or an underline to show the correct choice. Reject it.

[Tender Branson]

Aides to Al Franken's campaign said on Friday that the deficit they face against Norm Coleman in their Senate recount is now less than 100 votes.

"It is fair to say that Norm Coleman's lead is now in the double digits," said Marc Elias, a lawyer for the campaign. He added, more optimistically that, "there are more Democratic areas with votes left to be counted than Republican."

The Franken math is not official. They are basing their findings both on the 51.1 percent of the state-wide recount that they have completed, but which is not reported by the Secretary of State, as well as a portion of the 800-or-so contested ballots that they believe will be easily resolved.

The dwindling margin separating the two camps, however, is making for high political drama. If Franken's numbers are to be believed, the Democratic challenger has more than halved his deficit with just over half the recount completed. The election, in short, could be decided by a single digit difference, though there is no telling if the margin will continue to close at the same pace.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/21/franken-camp-colemans-lea_n_145526.html

[© tweed]

StarTrib says 163

[Rococo4]

i kept hitting refresh and it shows 137

[Verily]

Now it's back down to 142 from the STrib.

Try Ctrl-F5, Rococo.

[Ronnie]

Is a 142 a good lead for Coleman at this point?

[Lunar]

Is a 142 a good lead for Coleman at this point?

If the trend continues at the same rate, he'll lose by a couple.  Also, we don't know who has challenged more ballots that are obviously for the other candidate -- if Coleman's challenges are dumber then that's more votes for Franken.

Considering that the biggest Franken areas haven't been hit up yet..  Considering that Coleman has challenged more thank Franken, the fact that Minnesota strongly went for Obama (meaning if there are an equal number of miscounted undervotes for both Obama and McCain, that’s more votes Franken) and the fact that it’s people who make mistakes on ballots tend to favor the Democrats (we’re dumb), I think this looks slightly bad for Norm.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Is a 142 a good lead for Coleman at this point?

If the trend continues at the same rate, he'll lose by a couple.  Also, we don't know who has challenged more ballots that are obviously for the other candidate -- if Coleman's challenges are dumber then that's more votes for Franken.

Considering that the biggest Franken areas haven't been hit up yet..  Considering that Coleman has challenged more thank Franken, the fact that Minnesota strongly went for Obama (meaning if there are an equal number of miscounted undervotes for both Obama and McCain, that’s more votes Franken) and the fact that it’s people who make mistakes on ballots tend to favor the Democrats (we’re dumb), I think this looks slightly bad for Norm.

The most-educated and least-educated voters tend to be Democrats. Somebody who's never had to take a scantron test might not know to bubble in the circle on an optical scan ballot.

[Jens]

amasing this never ending MN election.

Just for the fun of it, I will give my take on the ballots shown on MPR using the same standards as I use when validating Danish ballots (has been doing it the last 10 years and have had the final word on election day in the last 3 elections). The standards are a bit more strict that MN-law. Fx do we not allow anything but the mark on the ballot (write-in does not exist) and you are only allowed to use the pencil found in the voting booth.

Day 1 ballots

Ballot 1: Reject; no writing outside the bubble
Ballot 2: Possible allow; needs to see the ballot live to judge whether it is a spot transfered from other ballots or from the voter. Not quite sure I would reject it anyway
Ballot 3: Reject; no writing outside the bubble
Ballot 4: Reject; no double voting
Ballot 5: Reject; no double voting (but funny, I usually only se votes for Marx, Jesus ect)
Ballot 6: Reject; no writing outside the bubble
Ballot 7: Reject; no double voting
Ballot 8: Reject; no double voting
Ballot 9: Allow
Ballot 10: Reject; no double voting
Ballot 11: Reject; no double voting

Day 2
Ballot 1: Reject; no double voting
Ballot 2: Allow (actually we would reject every other vote since pens are strictly forbidden )
Ballot 3: Reject; no writing outside the bubble
Ballot 4: Reject; no writing outside the bubble

Day 3
Ballot 1: Reject; no writing outside the bubble

3 allowed. You really need to teach people that they can get a new ballot if they make a mistake. I am also surprised that the ballot scanner allowed most of these votes. The one I saw in Massachusetts was quite sensitive to small spots and double votes. Anybody know what kind or kinds of machine(s) they use in Minnesota?

[Lunar]

Ok, this is worse than the thumbprint thing.  The Coleman campaign is challenging ballots simply because they are clear McCain/Franken votes and is challenging McCain ballots that simply left the senate race empty, arguing that it shows “intent.”
http://the-uptake.groups.theuptake.org/en/videogalleryView/id/1341/

[© tweed]

are the vote challenges the reason both candidates have lost votes as a result of the recount?

[Хahar 🤔]

Pathetic.

[Ronnie]

Coleman lead up to 167 votes!  Woohoo!

[Lunar]

Coleman lead up to 167 votes!  Woohoo!

Maybe because he's challenging things crazily.  Like a clear, undisputable Franken/McCain vote or a clear decision to leave the senate race empty...

[Alcon]

Coleman lead up to 167 votes!  Woohoo!

Maybe because he's challenging things crazily.  Like a clear, undisputable Franken/McCain vote or a clear decision to leave the senate race empty...

Only the former would change the count, though, right?

[Lunar]

Coleman lead up to 167 votes!  Woohoo!

Maybe because he's challenging things crazily.  Like a clear, undisputable Franken/McCain vote or a clear decision to leave the senate race empty...

Only the former would change the count, though, right?

True, but it falls into my theme of "crazy stupid challenges."

Posted it on the last page, but here it is again:
http://the-uptake.groups.theuptake.org/en/videogalleryView/id/1341/

That's just insane

[Ronnie]

Intrade is now nearing 60-40 in favor of Coleman.  Wonder why.

[MarkWarner08]

MN SOS to Star Tribune: Guess who's wrong?

Nov. 4 Ballots Cast for Norm Coleman   752438
RECOUNT Number of Ballots for Coleman (as recounted)   751898   42.34

Coleman=  -540 votes

Nov. 4 Ballots Cast for Al Franken   723818
RECOUNT Number of Ballots for Franken (as recounted)   723378   40.74
Franken = -440 votes


RECOUNT COLEMAN and Other Ballots Challenged By FRANKEN   778   0.04
RECOUNT FRANKEN and Other Ballots Challenged By COLEMAN   747   0.04
http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/SenateRecount.asp

Net result: Coleman +115 votes


Percentage of Ballots Recounted = 60.86 %


Coleman lead down to 115 votes....

[Ronnie]

With 64% of votes counted, Coleman leads by 120.

[Lunar]

Remember there are already almost 1700 challenges.  That could easily put one candidate or the other ahead.  Coleman better hope most of his challenges aren't as stupid as the ones in the video above.

[Sam Spade]

MN SOS to Star Tribune: Guess who's wrong?

Both are right.  It merely has to to with the fact that the Strib is reporting unofficials in certain counties (see St. Louis, Hennepin) ahead of the SOS.

As for the challenges, I expect both sides to engage in a certain amount of stupid ones which will be resolved before the final battle.

That's why my handy little list of what has been challenged will be quite important.

[Sam Spade]

As I predicted, the incompletes will go a separate post for now.  I may rectify this situation on the weekend.

Incomplete Counties

County %Complete Coleman (Count) CHG Franken (Count) CHG Shift Challenges Anoka 98%P, 98%V 82,230 (80,893) -60 66,747 (65,676) -42 F+18 C66, F93 Becker 29%P, 26%V 8,390 -11 5,990 -11 NC C13, F12 Crow Wing 98%P, 96%V 16,098 (15,402) -5 13,019 (12,632) -6 C+1 C11, F10 Dakota 62%P, 55%V 102,595 (55,983) -101 85,201 (47,098) -87 F+14 C92, F96 Hennepin 63% 67%P, 68%V 237,525 (168,527) -166 329,249 (186,680) -196 C+30 C254, F252 Kanabec 0% 90%P, 91%V 3,739 -8 2,978 0 F+8 C2, F7 Kittson 0% 97%P, 100%V 1,077 +2 1,165 -3 C+5 C1, F3 Ramsey 47%P, 43%V 92,816 (29,853) -45 142,069 (71,588) -10 F+35 C62, F53 St. Louis 86%P, 79%V 38,248 (30,389) -33 64,381 (50,235) -55 C+22 C153, F90 Stearns 70%P, 79%V 36,208 (28,653) -11 26,147 (20,768) -8 F+3 C13, F13 TOTALS 758,218 (317,832) -195 848,307 (316,599) -133 F+62 C323, F334

[Sam Spade]

From Benton County, where Coleman challenged 25 ballots and Franken challenged 31 ballots.  This is a good example of "challenging gone wild", as I doubt most of the challenges to already cast ballots will be upheld and many of the challenges to new ballots will likely fail.

Benton
Challenges with or without Changes (C-26, F-23)
0010 – One vote challenged by Coleman. Two votes challenged by Franken.  Two votes removed from Coleman.  One vote removed from Franken.  Probably the Coleman/Franken ballots.
0030 – One vote challenged by Coleman.  Two votes challenged by Franken.  Two votes removed from Coleman.  One vote removed from Franken.  Probably the Coleman/Franken ballots.
0035 – Three votes challenged by Coleman.  One vote challenged by Franken.  One vote removed from Coleman.  Three votes removed from Franken.  Probably the Coleman/Franken ballots.
0040 – Two votes challenged by Coleman.  One vote challenged by Franken.  One vote removed from Coleman.  Two votes removed from Franken.  Probably the Coleman/Franken ballots.
0045 - One vote challenged by Franken.  One vote removed from Coleman.  Probably the Coleman ballot.
0050 - One vote challenged by Franken. Probably a blank/overvote challenge.
0055 – Three votes challenged by Franken.  Three votes removed from Coleman.  One vote removed from Franken.  Probably the challenges are Coleman/Franken ballots.  Probably one vote removed from Coleman/Franken.
0065 – One vote challenged by Franken. Probably a blank/overvote challenge.
0070 - One vote challenged by Franken. Probably a blank/overvote challenge.
0085 - One vote challenged by Coleman.  Two votes challenged by Franken.  Two votes removed from Coleman.  One vote removed from Franken.  Probably the Coleman/Franken ballots.
0090 – Two votes challenged by Franken.  Two votes removed from Coleman.  Probably the Coleman ballots.
0095 – Four votes challenged by Coleman.  Three votes removed from Franken.  Probably three challenges are Franken ballots.  Probably one challenge is a blank/overvote challenge.
0100 – Two votes challenged by Coleman.  Two votes challenged by Franken.  Two votes removed from Coleman.  One vote removed from Franken.  Probably three challenges are Coleman/Franken ballots.  Probably one challenge is a blank/overvote challenge.
0105 – One vote challenged by Coleman.  Three votes challenged by Franken.  One vote removed from Coleman.  One vote removed from Franken.  Probably two challenges are Coleman/Franken ballots.  Probably two challenges are blank/overvote challenges.
0110 – Two votes challenged by Coleman.  Two votes removed from Franken.  Probably the Franken ballots.
0113 – One vote challenged by Franken.  One vote removed from Coleman.  Probably the Coleman ballot.
0120 – Eight votes challenged by Coleman.  Eight votes challenged by Franken.  Eight votes removed from Coleman.  Seven votes removed from Franken.  Probably fifteen challenges are Coleman/Franken ballots.  Probably one challenge is a blank overvote/challenge.

Changes without Challenges (C+1, F-1)
0111 – One vote added to Coleman, one vote removed from Franken.

[Sam Spade]

Unfortunately, I'm only up to Crow Wing on today's update.  I'm partially being held back because I'd like to analyze the challenges on the completed counties (of which I'm through Chisago).  Maybe more tomorrow.  I expect counting to slow down then.