Ontario 2014 (June 12th)

[DC Al Fine]

So to clarify - Ryan is leaking HIS internal polls - not Ekos's internal polls - i assume the OFL must have commissioned some polling and so the results are their property. Hopefully we will hear about other ridings...

FWIW, it seems very odd that the latest wave of province-wide polls show the PCs in the lead and running ahead of their 2011 province-wide vote share - and yet apparently in Oshawa - a seat they have held since 1995 - they are supposedly running third!

Polls are just a clusterf[inks] right now. The pollsters are all over the place.

[Hatman 🍁]

So to clarify - Ryan is leaking HIS internal polls - not Ekos's internal polls - i assume the OFL must have commissioned some polling and so the results are their property. Hopefully we will hear about other ridings...

FWIW, it seems very odd that the latest wave of province-wide polls show the PCs in the lead and running ahead of their 2011 province-wide vote share - and yet apparently in Oshawa - a seat they have held since 1995 - they are supposedly running third!

OK sure, they're his property. And that's why you won't hear me discussing them, (or using them in my model). I seem to recall the OFL (or the CFL?) releasing some polls last election, so hopefully they release them this time as well.

[Hatman 🍁]

One thing I will say is that I have no idea where Ryan got his data from, as I can't find anything with those numbers. He must be privy to something I'm not.

[Holmes]

Probably pulled them out of his ass because he probably has an agenda.

[mileslunn]

Whomever wins Oshawa will get more than 29% so this just might be the decided vote although I have a tough time believing the Liberals are ahead of the PCs.  Interestingly enough though it seems the NDP vote is consistent while a lot of the swing is actually Liberal-PC.  The NDP tend to win around the older part of the city where you have a lot of blue collar workers, while the PCs and to a lesser extent Liberals are more to the North in the newer subdivisions which are more 905 suburban type rather than blue collar working class.

Anyways if history is any indication, the NDP will probably have a strong second but fall short like they have in every provincial election since 1995 and federal since 2004, although maybe this might be their lucky time. 

Correct me if I am wrong, although my understanding is back in Ed Broadbent's days, many of the areas that now vote PC and Tory federally were subdivisions that didn't exist and was mostly farmland thus why the shift in voting patterns.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I think the Liberals have handed Horwath a decent opportunity if she handles the situation properly. It doesn't really matter if the Liberals are or aren't running to left of the NDP; the perception is that Wynne is presenting a very left-wing agenda. If Horwath can frame the election for leftists as a choice between two ideologically-similar parties, she has the upper hand. On character and leadership alone, the NDP win.

EDIT: Sorry, didn't see that Hatman made the same point earlier. We agree on something!

[Holmes]

Well, that is the reason she wants so many debates.

[RogueBeaver]

Wynne: We made mistakes in past, I'll correct them, didn't always agree with Dad. Better than her own Mad as Hell tour.

Itineraries.

Hudak: stabilize energy rates.

Horwath: $100 million for childcare.

[Hatman 🍁]

One thing I will say is that I have no idea where Ryan got his data from, as I can't find anything with those numbers. He must be privy to something I'm not.

I'd like to retract this, I found the data he was referring to.

[RogueBeaver]

According to OLP hack Regg-Cohn, a hypothetical Hudak majority and the associated 100k pink slips & running shoes would be Horwath's fault. If federal politics are any indication they'll still be whining about it in 10 years.

[Hatman 🍁]

Scaring progressives into voting Liberal is the only card they have at the moment. It's tried and true though, and is working in at least Toronto, where it will hurt the NDP more than the Tories.

[Citizen Hats]

Scaring progressives into voting Liberal is the only card they have at the moment. It's tried and true though, and is working in at least Toronto, where it will hurt the NDP more than the Tories.

Ask people to consider possible outcomes when they vote? How terrible of them

[Hatman 🍁]

Scaring progressives into voting Liberal is the only card they have at the moment. It's tried and true though, and is working in at least Toronto, where it will hurt the NDP more than the Tories.

Ask people to consider possible outcomes when they vote? How terrible of them

When people are scared into voting for against a party, it's a sign of a flawed democracy. 

[RogueBeaver]

Why shouldn't progressives switch from Grit to Dipper? Ipsos numbers are close enough that the Dippers could move into 2nd.

[Hatman 🍁]

Why shouldn't progressives switch from Grit to Dipper? Ipsos numbers are close enough that the Dippers could move into 2nd.

BECAUSE TIM HUDAK IS MIKE HARRIS OH NOES

[RogueBeaver]

"Destroy the social fabric" and we're only D+5. On the subject of Dippers and 905...

[Citizen Hats]

It's like 2006 all over again, except this time the Liberal leader is decidedly not the most right-wing Federal Liberal Leader in generations

[Hatman 🍁]

It's like 2006 all over again, except this time the Liberal leader is decidedly not the most right-wing Federal Liberal Leader in generations

I guess if running a right wing leader didn't work (I assume we're talking about Paul Martin), then Liberals think running on the left will work. Might just work.

[Citizen Hats]

I don't think that last 8 years proves the Liberals wrong.  Oh to consider all the nice things we could have had...

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't think that last 8 years proves the Liberals wrong.  Oh to consider all the nice things we could have had...

Suggesting that McGuinty was right wing? He was more of a Libertarian's night mare.

[Linus Van Pelt]

As I have stated before, Horwath's opposition to funding new transit with gas taxes or road tolls does not play well in much of Toronto. The Liberals' strength in the city is not purely about strategic voting.

[Citizen Hats]

I don't think that last 8 years proves the Liberals wrong.  Oh to consider all the nice things we could have had...

Suggesting that McGuinty was right wing? He was more of a Libertarian's night mare.

I wasn't saying he was. I was referring to 2006 Federal

[MaxQue]

Scaring progressives into voting Liberal is the only card they have at the moment. It's tried and true though, and is working in at least Toronto, where it will hurt the NDP more than the Tories.

Ask people to consider possible outcomes when they vote? How terrible of them

We can also say than Wynne is too unpopular to be reelected and than the only person being able to beat Hudak is Horwarth. It's another possible outcome.

[RogueBeaver]

More Grit sexism on FB, this time in Hudak's riding.

[mileslunn]

The left vs. right is generally overrated.  While most Canadians lean in one direction or another, you do have a fair number of voters who don't necessarily identify along ideological lines and vote for parties on different sides.  Its not like in the US where the population is quite polarized and voting does at least nowadays break heavily along ideological lines.  In terms of Ontario, Northern Ontario and Southwestern Ontario are known for a strong populist sentiment so to many there, the Liberals are seen as too Toronto centric whereas the NDP and PCs despite being ideological different don't appear as Toronto centric.  

In the 905 belt, most tend to be fiscally conservative, but socially moderate and wary of change as such why it often tends to back the incumbent and also often goes for the party who is seen as the best economic manager.  If the NDP pulls ahead of the Liberals, I could see it hurting the PCs in the 519 area code, but much like it did federally, pushing some Blue Liberals over to the PCs allowing them to dominate the 905 belt.  

Too many people seem to assume the prevailing view in Downtown Toronto is held throughout the province.  Witness the Star's Thomas Walkom's column on what Trinity-Spadina voters thought even though this is not a riding representative of what most Ontarioans think (note I live in this riding).  Essentially here, people loathe the PCs, don't like the Liberals but will vote for them to keep the PCs out and see the NDP as the least offensive but are more your urban latte sipping leftist rather than blue collar union types.  Using this riding as representative of Ontario is about as silly as assuming Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke or Hamilton Centre is representative of the province.