Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[Tory]

Ipsos-Reid poll from yesterday puts the Tories at 38, Libs at 26, NDP at 19, and the Bloc at 11. If you plug that into the Hill and Knowlton predictor you get this:

Con- 157
Lib- 43
NDP- 42
BQ- 65
Other(ie Green)- 1

Wouldn't that be interesting?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I haven't seen anything since Tuesday to cause me to change my prediction so I'll stick with it.

[minionofmidas]

Posted Saturday, Jan 21

Torry vote pretty steady at 38ish %

Huge spike in undecided, but undecided are all soft Grits looking at NDP, and soft NDP looking at Grits.

It "looks" like Mr. Layton may be a VERY happy man Monday - can you say 40 seats...?

Or, if EVERYTHING goes our way - can you say official opposition?

[ATFFL]

Posted Saturday, Jan 21

Torry vote pretty steady at 38ish %

Huge spike in undecided, but undecided are all soft Grits looking at NDP, and soft NDP looking at Grits.

It "looks" like Mr. Layton may be a VERY happy man Monday - can you say 40 seats...?

Or, if EVERYTHING goes our way - can you say official opposition?

That is a ton to ask for.  I mean, you would need the libs to finish collapsing and have the NDP pick up their ridings.  Otherwise you might have trouble beating the Bloc for official opposition. 

Though, if you do end up over the Libs and the Cons get a majority government, the next election could see the two parties fight it out to be the official left wing pary of Canada.

[minionofmidas]

Posted Saturday, Jan 21

Torry vote pretty steady at 38ish %

Huge spike in undecided, but undecided are all soft Grits looking at NDP, and soft NDP looking at Grits.

It "looks" like Mr. Layton may be a VERY happy man Monday - can you say 40 seats...?

Or, if EVERYTHING goes our way - can you say official opposition?

That is a ton to ask for.  I mean, you would need the libs to finish collapsing and have the NDP pick up their ridings.  Otherwise you might have trouble beating the Bloc for official opposition. 

Though, if you do end up over the Libs and the Cons get a majority government, the next election could see the two parties fight it out to be the official left wing pary of Canada.

Of course, the result I would pay most to see is BQ 75, Tories 74, Grits 74, NDP 74, other 11.

[ATFFL]

Posted Saturday, Jan 21

Torry vote pretty steady at 38ish %

Huge spike in undecided, but undecided are all soft Grits looking at NDP, and soft NDP looking at Grits.

It "looks" like Mr. Layton may be a VERY happy man Monday - can you say 40 seats...?

Or, if EVERYTHING goes our way - can you say official opposition?

That is a ton to ask for.  I mean, you would need the libs to finish collapsing and have the NDP pick up their ridings.  Otherwise you might have trouble beating the Bloc for official opposition. 

Though, if you do end up over the Libs and the Cons get a majority government, the next election could see the two parties fight it out to be the official left wing pary of Canada.

Of course, the result I would pay most to see is BQ 75, Tories 74, Grits 74, NDP 74, other 11.

I'll chip in to pay for that!

[Hatman 🍁]

Poll ban is still in effect. That's why EKOS is not running polls this weekend. I should know more than you, Vorlon, I work for EKOS. Poll results revealed this weekend are from Friday.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's my predictions:

Newfoundland and Labrador
Liberal 5
Cons   2
NDP   0

Changes: none

Nova Scotia
Liberal   6
Cons   3
NDP   2
Changes: none

Prince Edward Island
Liberal   4
Cons   0
NDP   0
Changes: none

New Brunswick
Cons   5
Liberal   4
NDP   1
Changes: Saint John, Tobique-Mactaquac (Lib to Cons)

Montreal
Liberal 12
BQ   10
Cons   0
Changes: Ahuntsic, Jeanne-le Ber, Papineau (Lib to BQ)

North of the St Lawrence
Liberal 1
BQ   14
Cons   2
Ind   1
Changes:
Gatineau (Liberal to BQ)
Louis-Saint-Laurent (BQ to Cons)
Pontiac (Liberal to Cons)
Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier (BQ to Ind)

South of the St Lawrence
Liberal   1
BQ   23
Cons   1
Changes:
Beauce (Lib to Cons)
Brome-Missisquoi (Lib to BQ)

Northern Quebec
Lib   0
BQ   10
Cons   0
Changes: None

Toronto
Lib   20
Cons   0
NDP   2
Changes: Trinity-Spadina (Lib to NDP)

Greater Toronto Area
Lib      12
Cons      17
NDP      3
Changes:
Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough Westdale, Bramalea-Gore-Malton, Brampton West, Burlington, Halton,  Mississauga South, Mississauga-Streetsville, Newmarket-Aurora, Oakville, St. Catharines, Whitby-Oshawa (Lib to Cons)
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mountain (Liberal to NDP)
Mississauga-Erindale (Ind to Lib)

Eastern Ontario
Lib   5
Cons   11
NDP   1
Changes:
Northumberland-Quinte West, Ottawa-Orleans, Ottawa West-Nepean (Lib to Cons)

Northern Ontario:
Changes:
Lib   6
NDP   3
Cons   1
Changes:
Parry Sound-Muskoka (Lib to Cons)
Kenora (Lib to NDP)

Southwestern Ontario:
Changes:
Lib   7
Cons   15
NDP   3
Brant, Chatham-Kent-Essex, Kitchener-Conestoga, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, Barrie, Simcoe-North (Lib to Cons)
London-Fanshawe (Ind to NDP)

Manitoba
Lib   3
Cons   7
NDP   4
Changes:
Churchill (Ind to NDP)

Saskatchewan
Lib   1
Cons   13
NDP   0
Changes: none

Alberta
Liberal   0
Cons   28
NDP    0

Changes: Edmonton Centre (Lib to Cons), Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont (Ind to Cons)

Lower Mainland
Liberal   5
Cons   11
NDP    5

Changes:
New Westminster-Coquitlam (Cons to NDP)
North Vancouver (Lib to Cons)
Surrey North (Ind to NDP) 

BC Interior/North
Cons   8
NDP   1

Changes:
British Columbia Southern Interior (Cons to NDP)
Skeena-Bulkley Valley (NDP to Cons)

Vancouver Island

Cons   3
NDP   3

Changes:
Victoria, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca (Liberal to NDP)

North
Liberal   2
NDP   1

Changes:
Northwest Territories (Lib to NDP)

[Hatman 🍁]

Totals:

Liberals: 94
Cons: 127
NDP: 29
BQ: 57
Ind: 1

[Cubby]

I can't wait for tomorrow night. I'll probably be depressed and dissapointed, but I still can't wait. It'll be Canada's 1980 election

Please don't go too far Canada........

[Hatman 🍁]

I can't wait for tomorrow night. I'll probably be depressed and dissapointed, but I still can't wait. It'll be Canada's 1980 election

Please don't go too far Canada........

I am very disappointed that you decided to support corruption, lies, broken promises and Canada's other Conservative Party instead of positive change (for the NDP)

[bullmoose88]

I think, the NDP needs to finish ahead of the Liberals (and become the real opposition for now), or the Conservatives need to get a majority...otherwise the Tory minority is going to get no confidenced out...and the Liberals (without reforming, and due to Tory inability to govern with a minority) will return to power, and their old tricks.

And I like the Liberals...but they need a poor showing.

[Hatman 🍁]

A Conservative minority would be great for electoral reform which is a very important issue for me. Conservative elected senate + NDP PR = PR Senate

[bullmoose88]

See, if its a conservative minority, I'm not even sure it lasts to get to reform...it could easily fall on a budget vote (which it would almost have to cut a deal with the liberals, who may not take it)...

I just had a really goofy idea, which might make some sense...maybe...of the two big parties, the Liberals are the "left leaning" party (relatively speaking)...if I were Harper, I'd contemplate possibly some sort of arrangement with the NDP (precarious as it may be)...in the hopes it will push some left-Liberal votes to the NDP to create a situation where the big Right party faces two medium sized center, left parties (and benefits from the first past the post system) rather than a big centrist party and a smaller left party

Just toying of course. Its late, i'm tired, and not making sense.

[The Vorlon]

Poll ban is still in effect. That's why EKOS is not running polls this weekend. I should know more than you, Vorlon, I work for EKOS. Poll results revealed this weekend are from Friday.

If the poll ban is in effect, why did Ipsos Reed and SES release polls this sunday then?

EKOS decided not to poll..  they COULD have polled if they wanted.

Here is the IPSOS poll BTW

and here is the Strategic Council Poll

[bullmoose88]

I think this question would have to be answered after the election (and new results)...but what kind of benefits could the conservatives get from a small swing from the Liberals to the NDP (say like 1-3%)...(and then whats the point where that swing starts to hurt the tories, in aggregate, I'm sure they could sacrifice a seat to the NDP, if they got a few more from the Libs)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Here is the IPSOS poll BTW

and here is the Strategic Council Poll

Interesting numbers; seems like the real fight is for official oppsition...

Oh and looking at the region figures... if my guess about where Liberal support is swinging to the Tories in Sask/Man (ie; the white collar parts of the Winnipeg metro. IIRC a riding poll backs me up on that) then there's a decent change of their being *no* Liberal M.P's left in the Prairie provinces...

[minionofmidas]

electionprediction.com has their prediction as surprisingly close: CPC 108, LPC 93, BQ 58, NDP 23, Other 1, Too Close 25.

Both the CPC and NDP will probably do better than that. 

Their final(?) prediction is CPC 118, grits 104, BQ 56, NDP 29, André Arthur 1.
Liberals over 100 seats? No. I don't think so.

[Mr. Morden]

With Harper set to take over as Prime Minister from Martin, who will now be the most left-wing head of government left at those G8 meetings?  Tony Blair?  Jacques Chirac???

[Filuwaúrdjan]

With Harper set to take over as Prime Minister from Martin, who will now be the most left-wing head of government left at those G8 meetings?  Tony Blair?  Jacques Chirac???

Depends what you mean by leftwing, but in most respects Martin is significantly to the right of King Tony. In terms of policy he isn't on what are usually termed "social issues" o/c; although that may be because Canada is a much more socially liberal country than the U.K rather than any convictions on his part. Interestingly his record as Finance Minister was largely to the right of Lawson over here...

[Gabu]

I can't wait for tomorrow night. I'll probably be depressed and dissapointed, but I still can't wait. It'll be Canada's 1980 election

Please don't go too far Canada........

The Liberals won a majority in the 1980 election.  I think you're thinking of the 1984 election, in which the Conservatives won a much larger victory than they're likely to get in this election.  The country wasn't demolished after that election; somehow I get the sense it will survive this one.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I can't wait for tomorrow night. I'll probably be depressed and dissapointed, but I still can't wait. It'll be Canada's 1980 election

Please don't go too far Canada........

The Liberals won a majority in the 1980 election.  I think you're thinking of the 1984 election, in which the Conservatives won a much larger victory than they're likely to get in this election.  The country wasn't demolished after that election; somehow I get the sense it will survive this one.

I suspect the 1980 election that Pym was referring to was the American election, not the Canadian.

[© tweed]

What riding is Paul Martin in?

[The Vorlon]

I can't wait for tomorrow night. I'll probably be depressed and dissapointed, but I still can't wait. It'll be Canada's 1980 election

Please don't go too far Canada........

The Liberals won a majority in the 1980 election.  I think you're thinking of the 1984 election, in which the Conservatives won a much larger victory than they're likely to get in this election.  The country wasn't demolished after that election; somehow I get the sense it will survive this one.

I suspect the 1980 election that Pym was referring to was the American election, not the Canadian.

What happened in the 1980 US election... ?

Didn't you yanks elect some old fool who took naps and told jokes all the time.

Other than winning the cold war, ending the arms race, freeing hundred of millions of people from communism, starting the longest economic expansion in US history, cutting unemployment from 10% to 5%, dropping inflation from 18% to 2%, cutting interest rates from 20% to 5%, and reducing income taxes 25% across the board I can't think of a single meaningful thing he did...

Given the way you yanks reacted in 2004 when he died, (damn near shutting down the nation for a week, 100s of thousands waiting in line to pay respects and all), you might have thought THE GREATEST PRESIDENT OF THE 20TH CENTURY had does or something...

<<this post is, of course, not related to this thread, so please ignore >>

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What riding is Paul Martin in?

LaSalle-Emard; a francophone riding in southern Montreal with a large anglo population.
Harper is in Calgary Southwest (IIRC it's quite suburban and upper middle class. Could be wrong; I don't know Calgary well).
Layton is in the absurdly named Toronto-Danforth (diverse and still quite industrial inner city riding in eastern Toronto)
Duceppe is in Laurier (I forget the second part of the riding name), a working class and heavily francophone riding in eastern Montreal.

Martin won by a lot in 2004, but the Bloc claims it can take him out.