LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Miles]

NC-Sen: Glenn Beck hosts Brannon. Spoiler: they agree on everything. Beck calls Brannon "the best candidate he's every talked to."

Personally, I don't know what I make of Brannon's guilty verdict; the timing could have been better. Ideally, he would upset Tillis in the primary, then I would like to have this come out. OTOH, if he made it to the general, he'd be favored to lose anyway. I tend to agree that if he collapses, the beneficiaries would be Harris and Graham.

More NC-Sen: This interview with Tillis was overdue, as he's been awful quiet lately. He's clearly looking past the primary towards the general election.

NC-07: Woody White is on the air with an ad. Its basically the stuff you'd expect from him.

LA-04: Flemming writes a brief editorial slamming the stimulus and pushing for Keystone XL.

LA-02: Richmond wins the award for best PAC name:

[Miles]

The LSU paper's report on Claitor.

Why I like him:

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I can even identify with this guy at the personal level:

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[Miles]

LA-06: HE'S RUNNING!!!!!!!

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[RogueBeaver]

Awesome. Any Pub effect, or does he just crater Lieberman?

[Flake]

LA-06: HE'S RUNNING!!!!!!!

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Endorsed

[Miles]

Awesome. Any Pub effect, or does he just crater Lieberman?

Ideologically and geographically, this really hurts Lieberman.

The part of Ascension Parish in CD6 is very Republican; I could see him pulling a lot of support there.

This race, which was already unpredictable, got a lot more interesting.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

LA-06: HE'S RUNNING!!!!!!!

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Endorsed

+1

[RogueBeaver]

Awesome. Any Pub effect, or does he just crater Lieberman?

Ideologically and geographically, this really hurts Lieberman.

The part of Ascension Parish in CD6 is very Republican; I could see him pulling a lot of support there.

This race, which was already unpredictable, got a lot more interesting.

Any Pub with geographic strength in Ascension?

[publicunofficial]

Well this'll be fun.

[Miles]

Any Pub with geographic strength in Ascension?

None are from there but since Dietzel is going for the rural/exurban vote in the BR area, it would be him.

[RogueBeaver]

Gulp. Guess we can only wait and see what voters vote on: ideology, popularity, geography, all of the above.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Is there any chance of Edwards actually winning?

[RogueBeaver]

Is there any chance of Edwards actually winning?

R+21.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Is there any chance of Edwards actually winning?

R+21.

That's what I thought   At least it'll be a fun election

[Miles]

Is there any chance of Edwards actually winning?

It depends on who he would make it to runoff with. Count him out if you will, but people really like him.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Is there any chance of Edwards actually winning?

It depends on who he would make it to runoff with. People really like him.

Wait so he could conceivably win, despite how Republican a district it is?  Who would he have to be in the run-off with and how likely is it that he'll face a candidate who could lose this, Miles?

[Miles]

Wait so he could conceivably win, despite how Republican a district it is?  Who would he have to be in the run-off with and how likely is it that he'll face a candidate who could lose this, Miles?

Possibly any of the lower-tier Republicans. I'm not saying he'd win even then, but with someone like Edwards, it kinda goes beyond what the statistics would suggest on paper.

Yes, he and his wife like publicity, but he was polling the district for a few weeks now. He obviously saw at least something promising from that if he's running.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Wait so he could conceivably win, despite how Republican a district it is?  Who would he have to be in the run-off with and how likely is it that he'll face a candidate who could lose this, Miles?

Possibly any of the lower-tier Republicans. I'm not saying he'd win even then, but with someone like Edwards, it kinda goes beyond what the statistics would suggest on paper.

Yes, he and his wife like publicity, but he was polling the district for a few weeks now. He obviously saw at least something promising from that if he's running.

So has this race basically entered "who the ____ knows" territory then?

[RogueBeaver]

Since Edwards' past will already be priced in, might ideology be the way to attack him?

[Miles]

So has this race basically entered "who the ____ knows" territory then?

I'll go with that right now

Since Edwards' past will already be priced in, might ideology be the way to attack him?

Idk, just go with it.

[Miles]

FWIW, when Jensen was asking for suggestions for the PPP LA poll last week, I requested favorables for Edwards.

Tom actually asked about it found Edwards at 42/44. Dems like him a lot (58/23) but Republicans (25/62) and Indies (35/54) don't. Across the age spectrum its pretty consistent though he does best with younger people (57/40), who ironically never actually got to vote for him...until now

[Miles]

Huh!?

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[Miles]

Could well be headline grabbing. He wouldn't want to enter a losing race.

Yes, he and his wife like publicity.

[Miles]

LA-Sen: Profile of Maness trying to take on the mantle of Cruz.

NC-06: Preacher Dan Collison (R) is leaving the race to endorse fellow preacher Mark Walker in the primary. I liked Collison because he said when he first got in the race that the GOP nomination shouldn't be a "race to the far right."

NC-07: Idk how I missed this but a third Republican, retired veteran Chris Andrade of Fayetteville, has filed here. The problem for him, in addition to his lack of establishment, is that only two precincts of NC-07 are in Cumberland County.

[Indy Texas]

Which one do you think has had more work done?