Primary calendar / poll closing times and delegate allocation megathread (Christmas is saved!)

[Erc]

I'm planning to keep my thread running throughout the process, you could always sticky that in lieu of or alongside this?

[Mr. Morden]

This isn't delegate allocation so much as caucus procedure, but I thought I'd mention this, and I'll put it here since it's probably not worth starting a new thread over:

http://www.rgj.com/story/news/politics/2016/01/12/ralston-reports-yes-nevada-matter-presidential-race/78718940/

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[Mr. Morden]

Updated the OP to include the primary calendar.  It looks like there's still some contradictory information though about some of these states holding caucuses or conventions that may or may not hold preference votes.  Let me know if you spot any mistakes.

[Erc]

Updated the OP to include the primary calendar.  It looks like there's still some contradictory information though about some of these states holding caucuses or conventions that may or may not hold preference votes.  Let me know if you spot any mistakes.

Only a couple notes:

1) I believe the ND GOP doesn't have caucuses per se, but instead 47 Legislative District Conventions, which are spread out, lasting from January 19 - February 28.  

2) The Democrats Abroad Primary starts March 1, but lasts until March 8.

3) EDIT: I have no idea what's going on in the Virgin Islands.  One GOP source claims March 19, while another claims March 10.  The latter claims VI GOP never filed a delegate selection plan, so they reverted automatically to their 2012 scheme, including putting it on the exact same date (even though March 10 is now a Thursday, not a Saturday).

This is a matter of taste, but you may also want to list the latter stages of delegate selection for the states without GOP preference votes (CO/WY/ND).  

• ND has its state convention (25 delegates) April 1-3.
• WY has County Conventions (12 delegates) March 12 and its State Convention (14 delegates) April 14-16
• Colorado has county assemblies at some point between the caucuses and March 26, its CD Conventions (21 delegates) April 8, and its State Convention (13 delegates) April 9.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Anyone have the total delegate count for each candidate on both sides now that NH and Iowa have voted?

[The Other Castro]

Anyone have the total delegate count for each candidate on both sides now that NH and Iowa have voted?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=226605.0

[Mr. Morden]

Nate Cohn has a good story up about how the delegate allocation rules interact with which candidates are in the race:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/18/upshot/mainstream-gop-field-of-three-faces-brutal-delegate-math.html?_r=0

Bottom line: Since, even in most of these states that the media calls "proportional", you either need to get 20% statewide or come in at least second place in congressional districts, the three "establishment" candidates all staying in the race for Super Tuesday and beyond would probably doom their chances of winning many delegates.

In other news, I've decided to repurpose this thread somewhat to include a listing of poll closing times (or opening times, the case of caucuses), since that question is coming up more now.  Already added these times to the OP:

Saturday, Feb. 20:
Nevada Dem. caucus: begins at 2pm Eastern (11am Pacific time)
South Carolina GOP primary: polls close at 7pm Eastern

[/]

Nate Cohn has a good story up about how the delegate allocation rules interact with which candidates are in the race:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/18/upshot/mainstream-gop-field-of-three-faces-brutal-delegate-math.html?_r=0

Bottom line: Since, even in most of these states that the media calls "proportional", you either need to get 20% statewide or come in at least second place in congressional districts, the three "establishment" candidates all staying in the race for Super Tuesday and beyond would probably doom their chances of winning many delegates.

In other news, I've decided to repurpose this thread somewhat to include a listing of poll closing times (or opening times, the case of caucuses), since that question is coming up more now.  Already added these times to the OP:

Saturday, Feb. 20:
Nevada Dem. caucus: begins at 2pm Eastern (11am Pacific time)
South Carolina GOP primary: polls close at 7pm Eastern

I've actually been spending a while today trying to find the Super Tuesday poll closing times, but am too lazy to continue doing so now that I know somebody else will.

[Mr. Morden]

Nate Cohn has a good story up about how the delegate allocation rules interact with which candidates are in the race:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/18/upshot/mainstream-gop-field-of-three-faces-brutal-delegate-math.html?_r=0

Bottom line: Since, even in most of these states that the media calls "proportional", you either need to get 20% statewide or come in at least second place in congressional districts, the three "establishment" candidates all staying in the race for Super Tuesday and beyond would probably doom their chances of winning many delegates.

In other news, I've decided to repurpose this thread somewhat to include a listing of poll closing times (or opening times, the case of caucuses), since that question is coming up more now.  Already added these times to the OP:

Saturday, Feb. 20:
Nevada Dem. caucus: begins at 2pm Eastern (11am Pacific time)
South Carolina GOP primary: polls close at 7pm Eastern

I've actually been spending a while today trying to find the Super Tuesday poll closing times, but am too lazy to continue doing so now that I know somebody else will.

The Green Papers have all the info for the primary states:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/closing.phtml?format=c

so it's just a matter of figuring out the caucus times.

[/]

Alaska - Caucuses will start at 7:00 PM EST and end at midnight.
Colorado - Caucuses start at 9:00 PM EST. I'm not sure when they end, but I'm assuming it will be around 9:30 if they operate similarly to the Iowa ones.
Minnesota - I have no idea, but state law says that public schools/universities cannot hold classes after 7:00 PM EST, nor can government committees hold meetings.

Anyone have any information with MN?

[Erc]

Minnesota GOP caucuses start at 8PM EST.  Democrats say registration starts at 7:30 PM EST, presumably they also start at 8PM.  Don't know when/if either side shuts the doors.

[/]

So when can we expect results from MN/CO?

And does anyone know who will be conducting entrance/exit polls?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Nate Cohn has a good story up about how the delegate allocation rules interact with which candidates are in the race:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/18/upshot/mainstream-gop-field-of-three-faces-brutal-delegate-math.html?_r=0

Bottom line: Since, even in most of these states that the media calls "proportional", you either need to get 20% statewide or come in at least second place in congressional districts, the three "establishment" candidates all staying in the race for Super Tuesday and beyond would probably doom their chances of winning many delegates.

In other news, I've decided to repurpose this thread somewhat to include a listing of poll closing times (or opening times, the case of caucuses), since that question is coming up more now.  Already added these times to the OP:

Saturday, Feb. 20:
Nevada Dem. caucus: begins at 2pm Eastern (11am Pacific time)
South Carolina GOP primary: polls close at 7pm Eastern

I've actually been spending a while today trying to find the Super Tuesday poll closing times, but am too lazy to continue doing so now that I know somebody else will.

The Green Papers have all the info for the primary states:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/closing.phtml?format=c

so it's just a matter of figuring out the caucus times.

7:00 EST - Georgia, Texas, Vermont, Virginia
8:00 EST - Alabama, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee
8:30 EST - Arkansas

I have a band concert from 7 to 8, so I'll miss the first closings and probably the 8:00 ones too ;-;

Anyway, I'll try to find the Colorado, Minnesota, and Alaska caucus times now.

Nitpick here - Texas has one county in Mountain Time that closes polls at 8 ET. Networks typically wait for that before calling anything.

[/]

Nate Cohn has a good story up about how the delegate allocation rules interact with which candidates are in the race:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/18/upshot/mainstream-gop-field-of-three-faces-brutal-delegate-math.html?_r=0

Bottom line: Since, even in most of these states that the media calls "proportional", you either need to get 20% statewide or come in at least second place in congressional districts, the three "establishment" candidates all staying in the race for Super Tuesday and beyond would probably doom their chances of winning many delegates.

In other news, I've decided to repurpose this thread somewhat to include a listing of poll closing times (or opening times, the case of caucuses), since that question is coming up more now.  Already added these times to the OP:

Saturday, Feb. 20:
Nevada Dem. caucus: begins at 2pm Eastern (11am Pacific time)
South Carolina GOP primary: polls close at 7pm Eastern

I've actually been spending a while today trying to find the Super Tuesday poll closing times, but am too lazy to continue doing so now that I know somebody else will.

The Green Papers have all the info for the primary states:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/closing.phtml?format=c

so it's just a matter of figuring out the caucus times.

7:00 EST - Georgia, Texas, Vermont, Virginia
8:00 EST - Alabama, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee
8:30 EST - Arkansas

I have a band concert from 7 to 8, so I'll miss the first closings and probably the 8:00 ones too ;-;

Anyway, I'll try to find the Colorado, Minnesota, and Alaska caucus times now.

Nitpick here - Texas has one county in Mountain Time that closes polls at 8 ET. Networks typically wait for that before calling anything.

Results from the vast majority of the state will (presumably) be coming in by 7:00 PM EST regardless of when the networks decide to call the election, so I think putting it in the first group is more appropriate.

[jimrtex]

7:00 EST - Georgia, Texas, Vermont, Virginia
8:00 EST - Alabama, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee
8:30 EST - Arkansas

Nitpick here - Texas has one county in Mountain Time that closes polls at 8 ET. Networks typically wait for that before calling anything.

Nitnitpick. Closing time in Texas is 7:00 local time. So 7:00 CST for most of Texas, = 8:00 EST. El Paso and Hudspeth are on MST, and will close at 9:00 EST. The networks have never been concerned about waiting for an area with 3% of the vote before making a call.

[Mr. Morden]

OK, my friends.  Here’s where I’m at with the Nevada GOP caucus on Tuesday:

According to these:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxBkEnEMmFz5OWdkblRYLUdUWGc/view
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxBkEnEMmFz5dG8yUFNON3psZEE/view
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxBkEnEMmFz5N0tRczUzeVJXQm8/view

the caucuses start at (all times Pacific) 6pm in Washoe County and 5pm everywhere else.

But what does that actually mean?  According to this info from the Clark County GOP:

http://clarkcounty.gop/caucus

The “5pm start time” in Clark County really means that the doors open at that time, and voters are free to cast their ballots that early if they really want to, even though the candidate presentations don’t start until 6pm.  With all the other business, they don’t even have the ballot counting *starting* until 8:30pm (which, again, is Pacific time, so 11:30pm Eastern).  The “end time” for the caucus is 9pm Pacific / midnight Eastern.

Not sure if the other counties will be the same, but Clark is of course the largest county by far, so, if I’m reading this right, we might not really have much of anything in terms of results until close to midnight on the east coast.  And if the Nevada GOP is as slow as it was four years ago, it might be many hours later than that.

No idea when they’ll release the entrance poll, if they do one.

[/]

Do we know if Colorado and Wyoming will still be holding non-binding caucuses just for the sake of it? If so, what will be considered the "results"?

[Orser67]

I pulled this info from this thread from ERC. It's a great thread if you haven't checked it out, but I wanted to make a post that succinctly summarized the Super Tuesday states. Please let me me know if I made any errors (I did omit some info to keep the summary succinct).

Alabama: 50 delegates, open primary
29 at-large: WTA w/majority, otherwise proportional with 20% threshold
21 by CD: WTA w/majority or if only one candidate gets >20%, otherwise winner gets 2 delegates and runner-up gets 1

Alaska: 28 delegates, closed caucus
28 at-large: Proportional w/13% threshold

Arkansas: 40 delegates, open primary
28 at-large: (mostly) WTA w/majority, otherwise proportional with a 15% threshold and with delegates only going to the top 3 finishers
12 by CD: WTA w/majority, otherwise the winner of each CD gets 2 delegates and the runner-up gets 1

Georgia: 76 delegates, half-open primary
34 at-large: WTA w/majority, otherwise proportional with a 20% threshold
42 by CD: WTA w/majority, otherwise the winner of each CD gets 2 delegates and the runner-up gets 1

Massachusetts: 42 delegates, half-open primary
42 at-large: Proportional with a 5% threshold

Minnesota: 38 delegates, open caucus
14 at-large: Proportional with a 10% threshold
28 by CD: Proportional with a 10% threshold

Oklahoma: 43 delegates, closed primary
28 at-large: WTA w/majority, otherwise proportional with a 15% threshold
15 by CD: WTA w/majority, otherwise proportional with a 15% threshold; if >2 candidates finish with >15%, then the top 3 get one delegate each

Tennessee: 58 delegates, open primary
31 at-large: WTA if anyone wins 2/3 of the vote, otherwise proportional with a 20% threshold
27 by CD: WTA if anyone wins 2/3 of the vote or only one candidate wins >20%, otherwise the winner receives 2 delegates and the runner-up one delegate

Texas: 155 delegates, open primary
47 at-large: WTA w/majority, otherwise proportional w/a 20% threshold
108 by CD: WTA w/majority, otherwise winner gets 2 delegates and runner-up gets one

Vermont: 16 delegates, open primary
16 at-large: WTA w/majority, otherwise proportional w/a 20% threshold

Virginia: 49 delegates, open primary
49 at-large: proportional, no threshold

Anyway, I think Trump should be able to meet the proportional thresholds in all states and all or almost all CDs. I think Rubio and Cruz should also probably be able to meet the threshold in most states and many CDs, and probably deny Trump a majority in every state. Kasich and Carson should also win a handful of delegates. What do you all think?

[RI]

Do we know if Colorado and Wyoming will still be holding non-binding caucuses just for the sake of it? If so, what will be considered the "results"?

Colorado will have no preference poll and leave their delegates unbound until the state convention. I've read conflicting information about Wyoming, but I don't believe they're having a poll either (same with ND).

[Senator Cris]

Tue, Feb. 23: NV caucuses (8pm - 12am)

Will the media starts to show numbers and project a winner at 8pm eastern or at 12am eastern?

[Gass3268]

Tue, Feb. 23: NV caucuses (8pm - 12am)

Will the media starts to show numbers and project a winner at 8pm eastern or at 12am eastern?

Don't be shocked if none of the cable networks cover this heavily.

[sportydude]

This is how the allocation of delegates for the Vermont Democrat primary works:

• 11 district delegates are to be pledged proportionally to presidential contenders based on the statewide primary results as Vermont has only one Congressional District.
• In addition, 5 delegates are to be pledged to presidential contenders based on the primary vote statewide.

            3 at-large National Convention delegates
            2 Pledged PLEOs

Why don't they simply allocate all 16 delegates statewide? Why so complicated?

[Erc]

Do we know if Colorado and Wyoming will still be holding non-binding caucuses just for the sake of it? If so, what will be considered the "results"?

Colorado will have no preference poll and leave their delegates unbound until the state convention. I've read conflicting information about Wyoming, but I don't believe they're having a poll either (same with ND).

None of the three states are even allowed to have a poll if they're going to be allocating their delegates in the manner they're doing so.  If they were to have a poll, they'd have to allocate their delegates proportionally based on the results of the poll.  Those states wanted their usual convention processes to matter, so they chose not to have polls.

Note that Wyoming and North Dakota have actually already begun their processes; their local caucuses/conventions are spread out over the course of weeks to months.

In North Dakota, 85% of the caucuses have in fact already happened; they started January 19th and continue until February 28th.

In Wyoming, Niobrara County held its caucus on February 16; some take place over the next week, but most are on March 1 itself.

This is how the allocation of delegates for the Vermont Democrat primary works:

• 11 district delegates are to be pledged proportionally to presidential contenders based on the statewide primary results as Vermont has only one Congressional District.
• In addition, 5 delegates are to be pledged to presidential contenders based on the primary vote statewide.

            3 at-large National Convention delegates
            2 Pledged PLEOs

Why don't they simply allocate all 16 delegates statewide? Why so complicated?

Democrats have some weird rules on the national level that they are very strict about, and they don't make exceptions even in one-CD states when applying the rules strictly makes the result look bizarre.

[Mr. Morden]

Tue, Feb. 23: NV caucuses (8pm - 12am)

Will the media starts to show numbers and project a winner at 8pm eastern or at 12am eastern?

I really don’t know when they would call the state (or release an entrance poll, if there is one).  My guess is that they wouldn’t do that until midnight, but I don’t know.

But as for releasing numbers…the actual vote count that is…it’s a caucus, so I assume they’ll release the tally for a given precinct as soon as they have it.  But when will they have it?

Going by this:

http://clarkcounty.gop/caucus

the Clark County schedule has them not even counting any votes until 8:30pm Pacific / 11:30pm Eastern

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But how strictly will they keep to that schedule?  If candidate presentations go quickly, they choose delegates quickly, etc., then do they wrap up early?  I don’t know.  And other counties in the state could go by different schedules.  If you’re in a rural precinct where only 5 people show up, I’m guessing the whole thing goes fast.

[Mr. Morden]

Here’s the memo that’s being circulated about the AP’s reporting of results for the caucus:

link

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