Quebec: April 7, 2014

[Hatman 🍁]

That's not surprising, due to labour's influence in your region (in mining).

[MaxQue]

That's not surprising, due to labour's influence in your region (in mining).

No. Miners and mining unions are strongly opposed to Quebec Solidaire (there is a fear in the industry and workers than their policies would cuse mining to be more expensive, reducing the benefits for the business and the incentive for themm to open new mines).

Their base is non-mining unionised workers and social activists (against poverty, pro-regulation on mines...)

[RogueBeaver]

TCTC has 64/54, 308 65/55 PLQ. Look at that hilariously inefficient PLQ vote. Low 40s and 8pp gap, can't seal a majority.

[MaxQue]

I still think it will tighten, since yesterday, CAQ and QS stopped attacking Marois and are focusing on Couillard. And the independance debate seems to have faded for now.

[RogueBeaver]

Leger said on Twitter that the PLQ lead was 12 on Friday, 7 on Saturday, 3 on Sunday. So still a tossup, and I haven't changed my prediction.

[DC Al Fine]

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[RogueBeaver]

The bilingualism and sovereignty # should hearten we federalists. As should the Ipsos finding about 68% of Quebecers feeling "profoundly attached" to Canada.

[RogueBeaver]

Gagnon offers a plausible explanation for Couillard's Roberval run: up or out.

PLQ oppo research.

How to cannibalize the CAQ.

Family-politics balance.

[Hatman 🍁]

Re: Couillard running in Roberval: It gives the Liberals one extra seat they wouldn't have won normally, which could mean the difference between a majority or a minority.  Based on my math, and the recent Leger poll in the region, I think Couillard is ahead in his riding.

[DL]

Its worth noting that while the Saguenay-Lac St. Jean region as a whole is a bit of a PQ stronghold and was a BQ stronghold in the past - Roberval much less so - in fact the federal riding of Roberval has a Conservative MP! Denis Lebel and it was a Creditiste stronghold from 1962 to 1980.

Nonetheless, it is not inconceivable that the PLQ could win the election and Couillard could be personally defeated in Roberval...as happened to Bourassa when he ran in Bertrand in 1985. if that happened you can be sure a PLQ MNA would quickly resign so that Premier Couillard could get a seat in a byelection.

[Citizen Hats]

Re: Couillard running in Roberval: It gives the Liberals one extra seat they wouldn't have won normally, which could mean the difference between a majority or a minority.  Based on my math, and the recent Leger poll in the region, I think Couillard is ahead in his riding.

So it's like when John Turner ran in Vancouver Quadra, despite having previously only represented seats in Montreal and Ottawa. Notably, Quadra remains a Liberal stronghold to this day

[DL]

I guess Couillard is also following a more successful example in Jean Chretien. He insisted in running in his old home riding of St. Maurice in 1993 and onwards even though its 99% francophone and it was clear that the BQ was sweeping francophone Quebec that year...Chretien still managed to eek out a win by 500 votes in 1993 and help on subsequently though the moment he quit the seat went BQ in '04, '06 and '08 and then went NDP in 2011.

The elderly and ailing NDP MP from Montreal Lise St. Denis soon switched to the Liberals since they were OK with her not doing any work - she has already announced that she will not run again in 2015.

[Citizen Hats]

The elderly and ailing NDP MP from Montreal Lise St. Denis soon switched to the Liberals since they were OK with her not doing any work - she has already announced that she will not run again in 2015.

The ailing NDP MP for St. Maurice-Champlain Lise St. Denis switched to the Liberals because of the sh**t she was getting from the OLO for hiring a few experienced old Chretien hands to run her riding office rather than NDP hacks

[DL]

St. Denis has certainly sunk without a trace since becoming a Liberal. She got 15 minutes of fame when she had that embarrassing news conference when she switched where even Bob Rae winced at the crazy things she was saying - and since then she has literally vanished off the face of the earth. No great loss for anyone.

[MaxQue]

The elderly and ailing NDP MP from Montreal Lise St. Denis soon switched to the Liberals since they were OK with her not doing any work - she has already announced that she will not run again in 2015.

The ailing NDP MP for St. Maurice-Champlain Lise St. Denis switched to the Liberals because of the sh**t she was getting from the OLO for hiring a few experienced old Chretien hands to run her riding office rather than NDP hacks

I doubt it would be the case. I know an NDP MP which hired the office team of a former PQ MNA, without having problems.

[DC Al Fine]

So who picks up her seat? The Bloc maybe?

[MaxQue]

So who picks up her seat? The Bloc maybe?

I would say the NDP is slightly favored, over a new Liberal candidate. Bloc, stuck at 17-20%, the same result than last time, can't really hope to gain seats outside its heartlands, which that place isn't.

[DL]

Does the Bloc even have any "heartlands" anymore? the three seats they have are scattered around and were mostly fluke wins due to vote splits or personal popularity of their candidate. The ridings we used to think of as BQ heartland are virtually all NDP seats now.

St. Maurice-Champlain is a 99% francophone riding that would have been a BQ shoe-in back in the olden days. Now if it is an open seat, the NDP would likely be the default party to win there, St. Deni's defection notwithstanding, there are seats in Quebec that you would expect to go Liberal in 2015 owing to large proportions of non-francophones or some sort of vestigial Liberal srength - that riding is not one of them.

[MaxQue]

It was held by Liberals until 2004 and provincially, that's probably Liberal (huge Liberal margins in Laviolette).

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, Laviolette is very Liberal. I was wondering why that was?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It was held by Liberals until 2004

Though that was mostly (entirely?) because the Liberal candidate was John Christian.

[MaxQue]

It was held by Liberals until 2004

Though that was mostly (entirely?) because the Liberal candidate was John Christian.

Perhaps, perhaps not. In 1993, yes, but I'm no so sure than Bloc would have won in 1997 or 2000, even if Chrétien wasn't there, especially than the riding was less-Bloc friendly before 2003 redistricting (it literally tore apart Saint-Maurice in two).

[Linus Van Pelt]

Why did Couillard end up in St-Félicien, anyway? (I mean, living there; I realize he's running there because he lives there). He appears to be from Montreal and have spent his career there aside from a stint at a hospital in Sherbrooke; it's not like Chrétien returning to his home region.

[RogueBeaver]

His wife's from there and he's very passionate about fishing.

[Linus Van Pelt]

His wife's from there and he's very passionate about fishing.

Oh OK, thanks.