Quebec: April 7, 2014

[Krago]

This is astounding.
 
From the Ipsos poll, voters between 18 and 34 years of age:
 
Lib - 39%
QS - 23%
CAQ - 18%
PQ - 16%

[Marokai Backbeat]

Are there any reliable stats for how younger people voted in 2012?

[MaxQue]

This is astounding.
 
From the Ipsos poll, voters between 18 and 34 years of age:
 
Lib - 39%
QS - 23%
CAQ - 18%
PQ - 16%

Well, PQ and QS numbers inversed would be more logical, but polls showed than that generation really hates the Charte. But, overall, not surprising. The young generation is quite left-wing (and the next generation coming to the polls seems to be even more left-wing, according to my interactions with them). Counter-effect of the 2008 financial crisis, I suppose. They grew seeing a massive failure of the current economical system, after all.

Short version: I expected that result, but on a smaller age sample (18-24) or in a decade, if PQ doesn't change its course.

[Hatman 🍁]

Are there any reliable stats for how younger people voted in 2012?

Forum Research's last poll before the 2012 election showed for 18-34:

PQ: 37
CAQ: 23
PLQ: 21
QS: 10


Note that they overestimated the PQ overall, and underestimated the Liberals somewhat.

Remember in 2012, the student protests were a big deal, so the younger generation rallied behind the PQ who were seen as defending their interests against the Charest regime.

Fast forward 2 years and the PQ has alienated these voters with the whole charter nonsense.

[lilTommy]

Montreal Island
PLQ: 45 (-3)
PQ: 23 (-2)
QS: 19 (+9)
CAQ: 9 (n/c)
ON: 1 (-3)
Oth: 3 (-1)

What was the breakdown of how the island voted in 2012?

If the poll works out 37/29/19/13 to be true; in 2012 it was 40/43/15/6 - that's a good solid recovery for CAQ, does it not mean gains rather then any losses? and more then double increase in support for QS which undoubtedly is focused on MTL (that's why I was wondering what the island voted in 2012), could they not win the 4 they are pushing hard on?

The PQs Tuition increase last year also probably had an effect on those 18-24 numbers, since they talked about being against the Charest plan but then when and introduced a Charest-lite plan.

[Hatman 🍁]

QS got about 13% on the Island in 2012 if memory serves me well. I can get you the numbers later.

If QS is at 19%, one would think that's good enough for at least 4 seats. However, I think the poll is an outlier, as most polls have shown QS doing worse than last time on the island.

[RogueBeaver]

Good luck at reducing MTL congestion. Though in my experience, these past few years downtown traffic has thinned out - especially in summer.

Legault is having trouble believing in a PLQ victory. Me too.

LOL, Porter endorses Couillard.

[Hatman 🍁]

For lil' Tommy, here are the results from the Island of Montreal in 2012:

PLQ: 44.9%
PQ: 23.9%
CAQ: 15.4%
QS: 11.9%
ON: 1.6%
PVQ: 1.6%
Oth: 0.6%

[RogueBeaver]

308 projects 72/46/5/2. 2003 all over again. As much as I dislike the PLQ, this government is disgusting.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've inputted the Ipsos poll into my projection model, and I get the same seat totals as last time. I'm still hanging on to the Leger poll, though.

[lilTommy]

QS got about 13% on the Island in 2012 if memory serves me well. I can get you the numbers later.

If QS is at 19%, one would think that's good enough for at least 4 seats. However, I think the poll is an outlier, as most polls have shown QS doing worse than last time on the island.

Your right so far, unless we can see more polling done to back this trend up...
I'm assuming party internal polls are probably not the most reliable? taken with a grain of salt... but I just read on Jean Trudelle's FB page: "Un député solidaire dans Rosemont? C'est maintenant possible! Nos sondages internes nous placent en avance! A solidarity Member for Rosemont? It is now possible! Our internal polls put us in advance!" - Hes' the QS candidate in Rosemont. Lisee being defeated sounds unrealistic to me no?

[Hatman 🍁]

Rosemont is a very left wing neighbourhood of Montreal, it's entirely possible that QS could pick it up.

Speaking of which, has anyone seen any riding specific polls? I'm surprised there hasn't been any.

[lilTommy]

Rosemont is a very left wing neighbourhood of Montreal, it's entirely possible that QS could pick it up.

Speaking of which, has anyone seen any riding specific polls? I'm surprised there hasn't been any.

The reason i'm on the "surprised" side is that Rosemont, based on 2012 results, would be only their 7th seat on the island...
3rd - SMSJ - 25%
4th - Laurier-Dorion - 24%
5th - Hochelaga-Maisonneauve - 23%
6th - Outremont - 18%
7th - Rosemont - 14%
... Now i would think Rosemont would go QS before Outremont would?

[RogueBeaver]

ROFLMAO: Marois now promises to cut personal income taxes, said she never mentioned it because no one asked her. What a train wreck of a campaign.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Claims of spectacular internal polls are generally best read as ramping.

[Hatman 🍁]

I spoke too soon about riding specific polls. Apparently the Liberals are ahead in... Nicolet-Becancour

PLQ: 36.2
PQ: 29.9
CAQ: 21.9
QS: 7.7
ON: 3
PCQ: 1.3

Source: http://www.lecourriersud.com/section/2014-04-01/article-3672957/Nicolet-Becancour%3A-faible-avance-pour-le-liberal/1

[Hatman 🍁]

Another riding poll, this time in L'Assomption:

CAQ: 46
PQ: 34
PLQ: 13
QS: 6
Oth: 1

Source: http://www.fm93.com/regional/nouvelles/legault-largement-en-avance-dans-l-assomption-310316.html


This would explain why CAQ is having a strong result in the north shore region of Montreal. I thought Legault might be ahead.

[Hatman 🍁]

Another in Papineau:

PLQ: 48%
PQ: 28%
CAQ: 13%
QS: 9%

[Krago]

(1)  When is the CROP gonna drop?

(2)  Hatman, when you say 'we' are going to release a QC poll, who is 'we'?

[RogueBeaver]

So looks like Drainville - minister for democratic institutions among other hats-  violated the Elections Act.

[MaxQue]

So looks like Drainville - minister for democratic institutions among other hats-  violated the Elections Act.

To be fair, that provision of the Elections Act is hard to apply to someone as big as an Cégep or an University. Perhaps a zone restriction around the voting area would be enough.

Normal early voting locations are dedicated to that use during the vote, which isn't the case here.

[RogueBeaver]

In the current train wreck context, though. I'd also love to see a live PKP interview on Monday night.

[RogueBeaver]

Great article from Hebert on how the PQ engineered their own demise. I'm sure Landry can console Marois.

[Hatman 🍁]

(2)  Hatman, when you say 'we' are going to release a QC poll, who is 'we'?

EKOS. Frank Graves has confirmed on Twitter that our poll will be released tomorrow afternoon.

[Krago]

Thanks, Hatman.

Is it provincial only, or will there be a federal vote question?  I would love to see a cross-tab of federal vs. provincial support in Quebec.