Exit poll leaks

[khirkhib]

But it is interesting.

[A18]

Agreed...athough Kerry's leads by 20 in Pennsylvania, 18 in Minnesota, and 16 in New Hampshire will certainly be no where near that much of a blowout, you have to figure that such large gaps bode very well for Kerry in those states.

I think you're the one person who actually believes those numbers.

[Hegemon]

Here's how Drudge reported the first round of exit polls on 11/7/2000:

BUSH IN A SQUEAKER

PA, FLA - Dead heat

OH, MO, TENN, ARK - Bush leads

Mich - Gore by 3%

[MODU]

Here's how Drudge reported the first round of exit polls on 11/7/2000:

BUSH IN A SQUEAKER

PA, FLA - Dead heat

OH, MO, TENN, ARK - Bush leads

Mich - Gore by 3%

Sounds familiar.

[Firefly]

Early morning results usually (but not always) favor Republicans.  If these numbers are indeed correct, then Kerry is in a VERY good position.

[lidaker]

    AZ  CO  LA  PA  OH  FL  MI  NM  MN  WI  IA  NH
Kerry    45  48  42  60  52  51  51  50  58  52  49  57
Bush    55  51  57  40  48  48  47  48  40  43  49  41

From VNS

Sorry, but what's VNS?

[A18]

The numbers are indeed trash

[J. J.]

    AZ  CO  LA  PA  OH  FL  MI  NM  MN  WI  IA  NH
Kerry    45  48  42  60  52  51  51  50  58  52  49  57
Bush    55  51  57  40  48  48  47  48  40  43  49  41

From VNS

Sorry, but what's VNS?

Voter news service.

[Sam Spade]

I didn't think VNS existed anymore.  AP is handling exit polling this year, right?

[Mr. Morden]

This has posted on National Review's "The Corner", under the heading "Rumor":

"bush down 4 in ohio, down 4 in fla, downm 1 in NM, down 1 in mich, down 2 iowa

As Kathryn said, these early reports are unreliable, but these are numbers we just got from a major newsroom. Take with a grain of salt."

[The Vorlon]

Drudge posted those numbers - but now took them down

[Sam Spade]

My guess is that they're hoaxed.  VNS doesn't exist anymore.  AP does exit polling for this election.

[Erc]

I'm worried...

[lidaker]

Do you people really believe Drudge? Has he been right more than on Lewinsky?

[Sam Spade]

FWIW, Drudge has said that those exit polls he posted had a woman to man ratio of 59-41.

Another grain of salt.

[Mr. Morden]

At the Corner, Jonah Goldberg is saying that the early numbers from mydd.com (and reposted by Wonkette) "are absolutely, positively  not exit poll numbers. They might be results of early voting "exit" polls (i.e. votes cast over the last two weeks), but they do not track at all the exits for votes cast today. That said, I'm told the exits don't look great for Bush either."

[Umengus]

"Anna Greenberg, Vice President of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, has just announced the earliest exit polls for the US presidential election. Ms Greenberg reports that exit polls obtained from a group of seasoned and highly professional pollsters reveal that Kerry is now leading Bush in the crucial state of Florida by a massive six points. Furthermore, exit polls in other battleground states now indicate that Kerry is leading Bush by wide margins in: Michigan, Ohio, Iowa and Oregon. Although, she would not venture a prediction, Ms Greenberg stated that she was cautiously optimistic for Kerry. Her caution was obviously driven by a desire not to discourage any potential Kerry voters from voting. Her remarks on the first exit polls were broadcast in an interview with John Snow on the Evening News on Channel 4 in London, The United Kingdom"

source: dailykos

[Beef]

FWIW, Drudge has said that those exit polls he posted had a woman to man ratio of 59-41.

Another grain of salt.

Exit poll mania spread through media and campaign circles Tuesday afternoon after first wave of morning data showed Kerry competitive in key states.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- shows Kerry in striking distance -- with small lead -- in Florida and Ohio, sources tell DRUDGE... But early sample was based on a 59- 41 women to men ratio... MORE...

[TheOldLine]

While the exit poll showing 60-40 PA is clearly bumpkus, the tenor over at National Review is clearly that the exit polls are not good for Bush.

Of course, this stuff is only relevant for those of us who can't wait five more hours for the real thing...

TheOldLine

[AuH2O]

They were wrong in 2000 and 2002. And these aren't even real exit polls.

Basically, media attempts to discourage Bush voters from voting. I'll be impressed with real numbers.

[Erc]

When I feel comforted by Zogby, I know something's wrong...

[The Vorlon]

Re Florida.

Drudge has posted that Castor in the senate race is +3.

Castor/Kerry vs Bush/Marteniez have polled very similarly so from this we can infer the Florida number of Kerry +1 (as per NRO) or Kerry +4 are "sane" if not accurate.

Exit polls in 2000 BTW wretchedly underpolled Hispanics/Cubans by a vast amount - Exit polls are set up a a very few polling stations and then "post stratified" to match the actual results.

The +4 or +1 for Kerry Tells me Florida is very close based on a 59 / 41 Female / Male split.

If the real number is +1 Kerry based on 59 / 41 male / female Bush is likely up a bit, if it is +4 for Kerry the race is basically tied.

[Mr. Morden]

Wonkette is now posting new numbers for the national PV and a few swing states:

K/B

USA: 50-49
FL: 50-49
OH: 50-49
Colorado: 48-50
NM: 50-48 (these numbers could change)

[AuH2O]

GOP sources are telling NRO people Drudge's Prez numbers are complete bunk.

They say Bush leads, albeit narrowly, in FL and OH. Doing very well in IA.

[Sheliak5]

Colorado is WAY closer than I expected.

With numbers like that Salazar will very likely win the senate race.