LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[illegaloperation]

Poor North Carolina Yankee, with a NCdem becoming the same democratic party in national lever, and the gop becoming even more extremist, you won't like politics in NC in the future!

I would recommend you not speak to me in such manner going forward. It is not a wise decision.

I have never liked NC politics in the eleven years I have been in this state. The NC Democratic party has been the same as the national party for twenty years with a corrupt populist face (take your pick there are dozens, many of them are or should be convicted felons) to keep up the numbers in the rural areas.

I actually like our position now more then a few years ago politically speaking and I feel good that a non-state gov't/non-US House candidate with some message discipline and several million dollars would make Hagan eat her pro-amnesty, pro-Obamacare voting record.

The biggest problem for McCrory right now is the economy. If unemployment starts dropping, then he should recover the same way that Kasich and Walker have. He has three and a half years to make that happen and as long as the GOP Senate candidate isn't a member of state government, the attention will be Hagan and her pro-Obama voting record,  not what has happened in Raleigh.

That is what I think the article is saying, that Hagan faces an electorate even more anti-Obama then the one that voted for Romney by about 100,000 votes last November and now she has to defend the votes she has cast for Obama's agenda in an even more hostile environment, whereas before she was the outsider running against an establishment insider, who in a bad year for the GOP ran perhaps one of the biggest blunders of a Senate campaign that whole decade.

The NC Republicans are just as corrupt as the NC Democrats.

[Miles]

Fresh polls!

The good people of Louisiana are fed up with their rampant leftist Senator.


Link

Hahaha, Magellan is a Republican firm and they didn't even run a head-to-head with her and Cassidy. The Generic R leads 45-39, which is unchanged from the 46-40 from their last poll. Its dumb to ask about Generic D vs Generic R when their are two actual Rs running.

Nice try.

[RogueBeaver]

I'm of two minds about a potential runoff: on one hand if Senate control hangs in the balance, as it almost certainly would, then that makes it easier for Cassidy to make one last nationalization push. On the other hand, Landrieu is known for localized minelaying- like 2002, when Terrell stepped on an agricultural one. Of course Senate control wasn't in the balance...

[Miles]

If Cassidy wins, he'll need to work on improving constituent service. When I called into Landrieu's office requesting an appointment, they were very nice and promptly gave me a date and time. Cassidy's office said "it basically hit or miss" and weren't very helpful.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Well, corruption seems to be a north carolina problem. Both parties seem to have many corruption problems, the  NC dem,the NC gop now with Tillis,...

The NC Republicans are just as corrupt as the NC Democrats.

I must have missed the part where Tillis was sent to jail, Berger was being investigated, McCrory was convicted of misusing campaign funds, Forrest was investigated for the same reason, Troxler was forced to resign in disgrace after a scandal, along with George Holding, oh and Richard Burr was revealed to have had an affair with a campaign staffer and then tried to cover up the love child they had. Come back when all of this happened, then we'll talk about them being just as corrupt, my friends.

[Miles]

RedState really doesn't like Casssidy:

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[RogueBeaver]

I suspect they'll focus their intraparty attention on KY/WY. Also suspect that Landrieu will try and wedge Cassidy from his base by playing up some of his more moderate votes. But Cassidy's path to victory hasn't changed: full nationalization.

[windjammer]

Well, runoff will be interesting

[Miles]

Facebook likes:

Maness- 23K
Cassidy- 14K


In fairness Landrieu only has about 9K between her two pages, but Maness may be on to something here...

[Miles]

[Miles]

The Conservative Campaign Committe endorsed Maness a few weeks ago. From what I gather, this PAC is an offshoot of the Tea Party Express; some of the candidates they've funded in the past were Joe Arpaio (AZ) and Jason Smith (MO).

[windjammer]

It would be great to have new polls with Maness.

[Miles]

So this is why State Sen. Rick Ward jumped ship:

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His Senate district is pretty reliably Democratic, by state standards, so when he switched a few weeks ago, it puzzled me.

[windjammer]

I'm not sure his strategy will succeed. He will always be considered as a RINO.

[Miles]

The LAGOP has been criticzed for its proclivity to just prop up party-switchers, so we'll see if that will change here.

For what its worth though, Ward was one of the Democrats that Jindal endorsed in 2011.

[Miles]

Ward, other than the party switch, has a few things going against him.

He represents the preipheral areas of CD6; a whopping 11% of CD6 overlaps with his Senate district. Even Jeff Landry has represented more of CD6 than that.

He hasn't represented any of EBR (well, only 4 precicnts) or Livingston parishes, which combined, account for 62% of the district. Still, I suppose any number of entrenched Baton Rouge Republican legislators could get in and fracture the field for him.

Also, only about 20% of his constiutents are registered Republicans, so its not like he has much of a base to draw from, even in a jungle primary.

[RogueBeaver]

Hoping for a new PPP poll, but NC seems to be the only Southern Senate race they poll regularly.

[Miles]

Hoping for a new PPP poll, but NC seems to be the only Southern Senate race they poll regularly.

Well, they're based in Raleigh

[windjammer]

I have the feeling that the tea party risks to weaken Cassidy. I don't see him winning after the 1st round. If he wins, it will be in a runoff.

[Miles]

I've been working on a parish-by-parish baseline for Landrieu in the event of a runoff. Despite the turnout dropoff in midterm years and the migratory fluctuations from the hurricane, the percent of overall votes that each parish casts has stayed relatively stable over the past few cycles. This is what getting to 50.1% might look like for Landrieu:



I'll have actual caluclations out later, but a few big things:

- She'll have to be pulling at or above 85% in Orleans Parish. That was her share of the two-party vote there in 2008, so she'll need to replicate that. I think its feasible, as Cassidy isn't from New Orleans.
 
- She'll have to keep Jefferson Parish within a 6 or 7 point loss.  It was a good bellwether in 2008, and swung to Obama in 2012, but its still tough.  Maybe since all the people I know there live in Metairie (the conservative part of the parish), I’m a bit pessimistic about her winning it again.

- In EBR, she got 58% of the two-party vote after losing losing it in both 1996 and 2002; I thinks that speaks to the local realignment in the state. EBR also swung to Obama in 2012 and, for the first time in over decades, is more Democratic than the nation as a whole. Cassidy is from here, but he isn’t particularly entrenched, as he was first elected to his State Senate seat here in 2006. In this scenario, Landrieu can’t afford to win by less than 54/46; that’s just slightly better than Obama, who won 53/47.

-Under this scenario, I controlled for a decent drop in Acadiana. This will be one of the real bellwether regions of this race. If Cassidy can successfully nationalize the race, I think this is where it will pay dividends. If Landrieu plays up her clout in bringing in funding for coastal projects, she can probably keep a lot of these voters in her coalition.

[windjammer]

Miles, a splendid map, congrats!

But honestly, I think she will improve her margin!

[Miles]

Rep. Rodney Alexander is retiring.

My endorsement: State Rep. Chris Hazel (R-Rapides)

[Miles]

A few thoughts on LA-05:

- Though it swung to Obama last year, it still voted against him by a pretty punishing 61-38, so it stays in the Likely/Safe R category.

- The only Democrat with a chance to win here, Rep. Jim Fannin, just switched a parties a few weeks ago.

- State Sen. Neil Riser looks likely to jump in tomorrow. He represents a rural swath in northern LA and as the article mentions, he could clear the field. Thats quite a contrast to the open contest in CD6, where any number of state legislators could still enter, creating a very fluid field.

-The much-hyped black Republican Elbert Guillory does live in this district, but his base, St. Landry Parish, only accounts for 5% of the district.

[Miles]

A piece in the Advocate about local responses to Alexander's retirement. He was considered the most 'moderate,' and otherwise pragmatic, of Louisiana's Republicans:

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He also sits on Appropriations, which will be a loss for the state.

Boustany, who was elected in 2004, will be the new dean of the House delegation.

[Miles]

For CD6, candidate Paul Dietzel was also at the RedState Convention last weekend with Ted Cruz, who seems to be becoming something of a kingmaker in LA Republican politics: