Australia - 7 September 2013

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I'm reasonably confident that the Greens will be toppled in Melbourne, unless the Liberals decide to preference them... which, from what I've heard, is unlikely.

That is unlikely, though Bandt should benefit from a sophomore surge, not to mention his electorate is very Green-friendly.

Wouldn't be surprised if he does lose though, and four months and a week is a LONG time in politics.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I would actually think most of the independents (Katter has his own party now) and Bandt will probably lose. I still think Windsor can survive.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I would actually think most of the independents (Katter has his own party now) and Bandt will probably lose. I still think Windsor can survive.

What about Andrew Wilkie? I can't see him losing, if anything, he should be returned with a significantly higher majority.

[Knives]

Oakshott's gone, deffo.

[Smid]

I think of the independents, Wilkie is the safest, Oakeshott has no chance, and Windsor if in between, but I expect him to lose.

Regarding Bandt, the issue is whether the sophomore surge outweighs the loss of Liberal preferences. The sophomore surge is the power of incumbency and a reflection of personal vote. It's usually worth a few percent, but I don't think it's worth the level of primary vote the Liberal candidate received last election, and who subsequently will not if the HTV cards preference Labor. I think for the Greens to hang on, their primary vote will need to be at least 45%, Labor's no more than 40%, and Liberals no more than 10%. Obviously the Liberal vie can be higher if Labor's vote is lower. I'm being a bit lazy, that ratio of 45:40:10 is usually Liberal:Labor:Greens for the Liberals to win a seat.

[Talleyrand]

I think of the independents, Wilkie is the safest, Oakeshott has no chance, and Windsor if in between, but I expect him to lose.

How does Windsor have a chance at all when the most recent poll (albeit conducted last year, when Richard Torbay was the candidate, instead of Barnaby Joyce) had his primary vote at 25% and his TPP vote at 34%? Seems like a bit of a stretch to me, even though he's been there for ages.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I think of the independents, Wilkie is the safest, Oakeshott has no chance, and Windsor if in between, but I expect him to lose.

How does Windsor have a chance at all when the most recent poll (albeit conducted last year, when Richard Torbay was the candidate, instead of Barnaby Joyce) had his primary vote at 25% and his TPP vote at 34%? Seems like a bit of a stretch to me, even though he's been there for ages.

While I think and hope Joyce will win, the fact that he is being parachuted in from another state, coupled with Windsor's incumbency, means that Windsor may not be as easy to defeat as some may think.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Where is the data about Wilkie? When I was down in Hobart a month ago, the local people were saying they weren't happy with his single-issue fixations.


In order...
1. Thomson
2. Oakeshott
3. Wilkie
4. Bandt
5. Windsor
6. Katter

[Smid]

I saw a poll, but it was (obviously) a single electorate poll, with all the caveats regarding that, and it was old, so things could have changed. It was a public poll, reported in the media.

I think Bandt, Thompson and Oakeshott are all gone, and I'm not going to try to differentiate between them - I honestly can't see Bandt winning enough primary votes, that he'd manage to offset the loss of Liberal preferences. Last election, the Liberals won 21%, of which 80% flowed as preferences to the Greens. Bandt won with 56% of the 2CP. The primary votes were:

Labor: 38.09%
Greens: 36.17%
Liberal: 21%

The redistribution didn't help Bandt, either. Not by much, but it did weaken his margin a little.

Windsor and Wilkie, I'm not sure about, both are difficult to guess. I'm more confident of Wilkie than Windsor, and I think Joyce is not such a negative - he may be from across the border, but his electorate office is only just across the border in St George, it's basically adjoining seat. He's also got his mavarick reputation, which may help, and from what I've heard, he's virtually a rock star in rural seats around the country (not just Queensland).

I think Katter will win re-election, but I could be wrong. His party won two seats at the Queensland state election, which were within Kennedy, and finished second in I think every other state seat that fell partially or completely within his electorate. I would not be surprised if he won on primary vote, and the only way for him to lose is if all the other parties cross-preferenced one another (and even that is moot if he wins on primary).

[MaxQue]

Which seat is Bill Shorten?
He gave a speech at NDP convention and he seemed a pretty good person.

[Smid]

Which seat is Bill Shorten?
He gave a speech at NDP convention and he seemed a pretty good person.

Maribyrnong. Inner North-Western Melbourne (more West than North).

[morgieb]

Which seat is Bill Shorten?
He gave a speech at NDP convention and he seemed a pretty good person.

As Smid said, it's Maribyrnong. One of the few safe seats. But would he want a poisoned chalise?

Who will be the next leader post-Gillard? Swan makes sense but he's in a lot of strife for re-election IIRC. I can't see the party going Rudd, Bowen's also in danger, Combet's from the Left, and as I said it'd be bloody stupid for Shorten to run.

Smith or Crean maybe?

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Which seat is Bill Shorten?
He gave a speech at NDP convention and he seemed a pretty good person.

As Smid said, it's Maribyrnong. One of the few safe seats. But would he want a poisoned chalise?

Who will be the next leader post-Gillard? Swan makes sense but he's in a lot of strife for re-election IIRC. I can't see the party going Rudd, Bowen's also in danger, Combet's from the Left, and as I said it'd be bloody stupid for Shorten to run.

Smith or Crean maybe?

Assuming he holds his seat (on state figures, Perth would still be Labor, but only by 0.6%), they might go with Smith, although Crean and Bowen seem possible too.

Combet they could always elect as a stop-gap leader, much like the Liberals did with Nelson after the 2007 election. And although our political views are quite different, I agree with you, Shorten won't be leader.

[Smid]

Combet is too closely tied to the carbon tax, anyway. It would be like electing Kevin Andrews, who was IR Minister during Workchoices, after 2007.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I doubt the carbon tax is as big of an issue as people think... to me, the leadership of the future is Combet and Clare...I don't mind seeing Shorten elevated and shot down as a post-election leader.

[MaxQue]

Which seat is Bill Shorten?
He gave a speech at NDP convention and he seemed a pretty good person.

As Smid said, it's Maribyrnong. One of the few safe seats. But would he want a poisoned chalise?

Who will be the next leader post-Gillard? Swan makes sense but he's in a lot of strife for re-election IIRC. I can't see the party going Rudd, Bowen's also in danger, Combet's from the Left, and as I said it'd be bloody stupid for Shorten to run.

Smith or Crean maybe?

Oh, I was just asking if he would stay in Parliament. He was good, but not impressive, I would even say boring, so, I sure hope than there is better leadership candidates.

[Peter the Lefty]

It should be Andrew Leigh.  To hell with the current government.  To hell with the faction system.  I know, it'll never happen.  And the only decent people in the current cabinet, like Combet, are also doomed if they want to go for the leadership.  How dare he try to run while being a member of the left faction (unless he wants to kiss their ring like it's God to make it up to them, like Gillard has.)

[RogueBeaver]

Depends which strategy Labor decides on, plus how many candidates keep their seats. Do they want a stopgap leader? Rebuilder who's a plausible PM and if they stick around long enough might get an opening, a la Beazley? Go for broke? I don't see anyone who fits category 3.

[Knives]

Jason Clare will lead Labor into the 2016 election.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

As some of you would know by now, disgraced former Labor MP Craig Thomson is re-contesting his seat as an independent.

I think he'll finish fourth, behind the Liberals, Labor and the Greens.

[RogueBeaver]

As some of you would know by now, disgraced former Labor MP Craig Thomson is re-contesting his seat as an independent.

I think he'll finish fourth, behind the Liberals, Labor and the Greens.

As always with involuntary Indies.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm going to pray that what happened in BC can happen here as well. Not putting much hope into it, but that's really needed.

[RogueBeaver]

Happened in 1998: polls suggested a big Labor win. Voters said otherwise.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Happened in 1998: polls suggested a big Labor win. Voters said otherwise.

Of course in almost every country this kind of upsets always favor the right. So unfair.

[RogueBeaver]

PVO on the so-called black hole. It does exist but hardly ginormous.

1993 as well, but both incumbents won the campaign like in BC.