Australia - 7 September 2013

[RogueBeaver]

More Newspoll marginals polling: potential for a Coalition gain of 20-26 seats, mostly in NSW/VIC.

Question: when will the final national polls be released?

[Hifly]

Morgan is now out again, and it's 53-47 to the Libs (up 1.5) based on respondent allocated preferences and 54-46 based on 2010 preferences.
The new Newspoll electorate poll, which groups the seats of Dobell, Robertson, Page, Eden-Monaro and even Kingsford Smith together is extremely unhelpful, but here are the tables.
http://resources.news.com.au/files/2013/08/30/1226707/906308-aus-news-file-np-marginal-seats.pdf

Oh, and JWS research is out with a poll showing Rudd dominating in Griffith 57/43, starkly contrasting with the two polls out a few days ago showing Glasson up 52/48.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nothing says community of interest like Page and Kingsford-Smith!

[RogueBeaver]

So the youngest current MP is a republican wet with star power and apparently, leadership potential.

[Vosem]

So the youngest current MP is a republican wet with star power and apparently, leadership potential.

Definitely sounds like he's got a very bright future ahead of him (though this has been the case since his election and that future is as of right now pretty distant).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Wyatt Roy? Leadership? Lol

[RogueBeaver]

Wyatt Roy? Leadership? Lol

I guess you share that anonymous Lab MP's view of him.

On other subjects, some extremely candid voters go on record.

[Njall]

So, the ABC has that infamous "Vote Compass" that the CBC keeps pushing on us here?

At least I'm used to it. I got the Greens. No surprise.

I got the Greens as well, with Labor as a close second.

Green...74%
Labor...67%
L/NP....41%

[Knives]

lol apparently Anna Burke and John Nguyen got into a screaming match at a public event.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

lol apparently Anna Burke and John Nguyen got into a screaming match at a public event.

Lol brilliant

[RogueBeaver]

lol apparently Anna Burke and John Nguyen got into a screaming match at a public event.

Lol brilliant

Video please.

[Knives]

That's what people at the event were telling me, it was mainly to do with Refugee policy which Anna has publicly criticised both major parties and called John a hypocrite which he really didn't like.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

More Newspoll marginals polling: potential for a Coalition gain of 20-26 seats, mostly in NSW/VIC.

Question: when will the final national polls be released?

I'm fairly certain the final national polls are released a day or two before election day.

[Hifly]

Newspoll releases the final poll a day before I think...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I imagine we'll see a Nielsen on Friday as well...

[minionofmidas]

So, the ABC has that infamous "Vote Compass" that the CBC keeps pushing on us here?

At least I'm used to it. I got the Greens. No surprise.

I got the Greens as well, with Labor as a close second.

Green...74%
Labor...67%
L/NP....41%

Almost the same here, 77-68-40. Had to answer "don't know" in the sense of "don't know the current Australian legal situation" a couple of times.

[Viewfromthenorth]

ALP 65%
GRN 64%
LNP 47%

[RogueBeaver]

Looks like the tide is going out at Labor GHQ.

National Galaxy shows 53/47 2PP but a sharper Coalition swing in the marginals with 86 seats.

PVO handicaps some crucial SA seats. 1 Liberal gain, 1 tossup, 4 Labor.

[Talleyrand]

The Newspoll of "NSW marginals" Hifly15 is actually two separate polls combined, IIRC. The 54-46 result in Robertson/Dobell a while back plus a new poll with Page, Kingsford Smith, and Eden-Monaro at 52-48. Not that that'll help us at all (as Al pointed out earlier).

Some new Galaxy polls from Western Australia and Queensland seats are out:

-Perth (58-42 Labor)
-Hasluck (55-45 Liberal)
-Brand (Not yet released, although both parties are on 42% of the primary vote and presumably there's a swing against Gary Gray)
-Herbert (55-45 LNP)
-Dawson (57-43 LNP)

[RogueBeaver]

Even a DD could only bring more Senate chaos. Smid's right, something has to be done about the Senate electoral system.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

The Newspoll of "NSW marginals" Hifly15 is actually two separate polls combined, IIRC. The 54-46 result in Robertson/Dobell a while back plus a new poll with Page, Kingsford Smith, and Eden-Monaro at 52-48. Not that that'll help us at all (as Al pointed out earlier).

Some new Galaxy polls from Western Australia and Queensland seats are out:

-Perth (58-42 Labor)
-Hasluck (55-45 Liberal)
-Brand (Not yet released, although both parties are on 42% of the primary vote and presumably there's a swing against Gary Gray)
-Herbert (55-45 LNP)
-Dawson (57-43 LNP)

My guess is that Brand would be a narrow Labor hold on those primary votes, and not surprising Labor are up 58-42 in Perth, MacTiernan is a quality candidate, there's a reason she was the only Labor MP or candidate in WA to get a swing to her in 2010.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Primaries in Brand last time round were 41 ALP, 39 Lib. The poll, in other words, shows no swing from last time.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

About to start posting some predictions. Will be doing this state-by-state and probably in separate posts. Throughout I'm assuming a national 2PP swing of about 3pts with less regional variation than was the case in 2011 (though still with quite a bit). I accept that I am very likely to be wrong about this, but whateversky.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New South Wales - Labor seats

Grayndler - even if the Greens manage to stay ahead of the Liberals, the change to Liberal preferencing policy pretty much completely rules out the prospect of an upset that wasn't looking likely anyway.

Sydney - a very safe seat and will doubtless remain so, with even the vague prospect of a Green upset (which was never very likely) removed. I do have vague worries that demographic changes will eventually catch up with Labor here, but perhaps the current sweet spot can be maintained indefinitely.

Cunningham - Labor stronghold based around Wollongong and only ever lost in a freakish by-election during the Crean leadership (and even then not to the forces of darkness).

Shortland - safe seat in the Hunter.

Charlton - another safe seat in the Hunter, though an open seat. But with a disgraced Liberal candidate.

Hunter - another safe seat in the Hunter, this one includes a lot of natural Nationals territory that's more than counterbalanced by the inclusion of Cessnock.

Newcastle - this is, shockingly enough, yet another safe seat in the Hunter, though one that has occasionally produced a semi-wobbly margin in recent decades. It's an open seat, but defeat is basically unthinkable.

Chifley - as solidly Labor as it is solidly proletarian and will remain so even if there is another exaggerated swing in Sydney. Which, given its name, is exactly as things should be.

Blaxland - a rather ironically named division (Gregory Blaxland was a wealthy landowner and this is one of the poorest parts of Sydney) that was once the electoral fief of a man of fine cultural tastes and a charmingly foul wit. Labor hold.

Throsby - this is actually safer than its margin implies because it's rather polarised (Port Kembla and Bowral et al do not vote the same way, shockingly enough).

Watson - successive boundary and demographic changes have all been rather kind to Labor here, something not dented by the large swing last time round.

Fowler - grim banlieue upon grim banlieue and solidly Labor even in the 2011 state election nightmare. A huge swing (nearly 14pts) last time was mostly down to bizarre selection drama that reflected poorly on the ALP.

McMahon - this ought to be a safe Labor seat and will probably continue to be (and consider that my prediction), but if you were to pick a safe Sydney seat to be lost in an upset this would - given particularly grim 2011 results and the comparatively (but only comparatively!) low swing last time - perhaps be topping your list.

Richmond - a new age dawned nearly a decade ago in the most New Age of divisions. Labor hold.

Barton - ought to be secure enough. Labor hold.

Werriwa - this has been floated around as a possible upset, but it's worth noting that the large swing here last time was to a large extent due to the same absurdity that caused an even larger swing in Fowler. Notably, Labor won't have been far behind here even in the catastrophic state election. Ought to be a hold, then.

Kingsford Smith - demographic changes and a large swing last time means that this looks at least halfway vulnerable for the first time since more or less ever. Still think Labor will hold.

Dobell - circumstances are beyond atrocious and a hold seems extremely unlikely. Of course (and mentioned just because) this was also true of neighbouring Robertson last time.

Parramatta - I would give a very slight edge towards a hold here, but would not be surprised at either outcome.

Eden-Monaro - can rural incumbent strength cancel out a general swing? Again? I think so, maybe. Just about.

Page - as Eden-Monaro, but with even less confidence.

Reid - the name of Reid has traditionally (ironically) gone to safe Labor seats, but the last redistribution changed that. Still, the swing was so large last time and the division so neatly polarised that it might not be as horribly vulnerable as it looks? Nonetheless, I suspect a loss, but a hold wouldn't come as a total shock.

Banks - looks horrifically vulnerable, but is perhaps a little less so than it looks: is there really much more room for swing? The Liberals won everything here in the Great Electoral Fiasco of 2011 (of course) but not by massive margins, something that ought to cause at least a little pause. Genuinely unsure about this one.

Lindsay - too much has been written about Lindsay over the years, so I'll just predict defe...

Robertson - asking for lightening to strike twice is probably asking for a little much.

Greenway - Liberal candidate woes have turned a probable gain into something quite messy and unpredictable. Sufficiently so that I shall not predict.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

New South Wales - Labor seats

Grayndler - even if the Greens manage to stay ahead of the Liberals, the change to Liberal preferencing policy pretty much completely rules out the prospect of an upset that wasn't looking likely anyway.

Sydney - a very safe seat and will doubtless remain so, with even the vague prospect of a Green upset (which was never very likely) removed. I do have vague worries that demographic changes will eventually catch up with Labor here, but perhaps the current sweet spot can be maintained indefinitely.

Cunningham - Labor stronghold based around Wollongong and only ever lost in a freakish by-election during the Crean leadership (and even then not to the forces of darkness).

Shortland - safe seat in the Hunter.

Charlton - another safe seat in the Hunter, though an open seat. But with a disgraced Liberal candidate.

Hunter - another safe seat in the Hunter, this one includes a lot of natural Nationals territory that's more than counterbalanced by the inclusion of Cessnock.

Newcastle - this is, shockingly enough, yet another safe seat in the Hunter, though one that has occasionally produced a semi-wobbly margin in recent decades. It's an open seat, but defeat is basically unthinkable.

Chifley - as solidly Labor as it is solidly proletarian and will remain so even if there is another exaggerated swing in Sydney. Which, given its name, is exactly as things should be.

Blaxland - a rather ironically named division (Gregory Blaxland was a wealthy landowner and this is one of the poorest parts of Sydney) that was once the electoral fief of a man of fine cultural tastes and a charmingly foul wit. Labor hold.

Throsby - this is actually safer than its margin implies because it's rather polarised (Port Kembla and Bowral et al do not vote the same way, shockingly enough).

Watson - successive boundary and demographic changes have all been rather kind to Labor here, something not dented by the large swing last time round.

Fowler - grim banlieue upon grim banlieue and solidly Labor even in the 2011 state election nightmare. A huge swing (nearly 14pts) last time was mostly down to bizarre selection drama that reflected poorly on the ALP.

McMahon - this ought to be a safe Labor seat and will probably continue to be (and consider that my prediction), but if you were to pick a safe Sydney seat to be lost in an upset this would - given particularly grim 2011 results and the comparatively (but only comparatively!) low swing last time - perhaps be topping your list.

Richmond - a new age dawned nearly a decade ago in the most New Age of divisions. Labor hold.

Barton - ought to be secure enough. Labor hold.

Werriwa - this has been floated around as a possible upset, but it's worth noting that the large swing here last time was to a large extent due to the same absurdity that caused an even larger swing in Fowler. Notably, Labor won't have been far behind here even in the catastrophic state election. Ought to be a hold, then.

Kingsford Smith - demographic changes and a large swing last time means that this looks at least halfway vulnerable for the first time since more or less ever. Still think Labor will hold.

Dobell - circumstances are beyond atrocious and a hold seems extremely unlikely. Of course (and mentioned just because) this was also true of neighbouring Robertson last time.

Parramatta - I would give a very slight edge towards a hold here, but would not be surprised at either outcome.

Eden-Monaro - can rural incumbent strength cancel out a general swing? Again? I think so, maybe. Just about.

Page - as Eden-Monaro, but with even less confidence.

Reid - the name of Reid has traditionally (ironically) gone to safe Labor seats, but the last redistribution changed that. Still, the swing was so large last time and the division so neatly polarised that it might not be as horribly vulnerable as it looks? Nonetheless, I suspect a loss, but a hold wouldn't come as a total shock.

Banks - looks horrifically vulnerable, but is perhaps a little less so than it looks: is there really much more room for swing? The Liberals won everything here in the Great Electoral Fiasco of 2011 (of course) but not by massive margins, something that ought to cause at least a little pause. Genuinely unsure about this one.

Lindsay - too much has been written about Lindsay over the years, so I'll just predict defe...

Robertson - asking for lightening to strike twice is probably asking for a little much.

Greenway - Liberal candidate woes have turned a probable gain into something quite messy and unpredictable. Sufficiently so that I shall not predict.

Fairly close to my predictions, Sibboleth, and good work, especially for someone who doesn't live in Australia! I'll post my final predictions here the day before the election.