Australia - 7 September 2013

[morgieb]

Looking at the internals, I'm surprised the Coalition isn't up by more.

[Hifly]

Ghost has the latest Newspoll: 54/46 2PP.

Confirms the results of the Morgan poll. At this stage I simply cannot understand how Platypus's optimistic prediction is anywhere near reality.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The internals of the Morgan were plain wacky... but I do think Hugh is on the more optimistic side of things.

[Hifly]

but I do think Hugh is on the more optimistic side of things.

Master of understatement

[RogueBeaver]

I'm curious to see if the primary vote and approvals continue dropping this week. Paul Murray projects 89/58 in seats. That'll depend on whether national or marginals polls are closer to the mark IMO.

[Platypus]

Meh. Maybe in Victoria. Maybe with Greenway. Otherwise I'm keeping it til the final prediction.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New South Wales - Coalition & Other

Note that I'm not bothering with Coalition seats with margins over 6% without very good reason.

Macquarie - named for a man who loved to name things after himself, this strange jumble of unalike places at the point at which raw physical geography halts the western sprawl of Sydney ought to be pretty safe given the general dynamics of the election (as it was during the Howard years), yet has been mentioned as a potential against-the-grain gain. I tend to think that's unlikely, but this is certainly worth keeping half an eye on just in case.

Macarthur - is, amusingly enough, named for one of Macquaries enemies. It's a big slice of exurban horror and will record a large swing to the Coalition.

Bennelong - see Lindsay, but here I expect the incumbent to ho

Hughes - will presumably see a large swing to the Coalition.

Gilmore - the Liberal margin here is greatly inflated by the (retiring) incumbent's personal vote. Were it not for the general atmosphere of the election I'd be calling a Labor gain here (it was that rarest of things last time: a Coalition seat where Labor polled more votes in the Senate elections), as it is a Liberal hold with a 'surprisingly' unimpressive swing seems likely.

Paterson - a comfortable Liberal hold is a dead cert.

Lyne - a straightforward gain for the Nationals.

New England - see Lyne. Note that until Windsor's victory in 2001, New England had always voted for the Nationals/Country Party/Whatever since the emergence of that straw-chewing political movement in 1919.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The thing I'd note about Newspoll and Morgan ... both have the major parties below 80% of the vote collectively. Morgan has 23% of the vote split between Greens and 'others' and while Newspoll is not much better. Another thing is that the LNP primary went backwards too.

Newspoll's capacity for big week-to-week swings continues and frankly, continues to alarm me. I mean 7% movement in the ALP primary in a period of a week? (34-37% then 37-33%) ... there is quite a bit going on under the surface of this and I don't think the final story of this election is written yet.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Tweet from Bernard Keane...

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[RogueBeaver]

Another 54/46 or are we back into Gillardite double-digit territory?

[RogueBeaver]

52/48 2PP is a Labor collapse? LOL.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Apparently lol - again, the size of the 'other' vote worries me. It makes it really hard to figure out a lot.

I still think the final result will be closer to 52-48 than 54-46...

[Platypus]

I believe undecideds will break pretty evenly this time, which makes me think the real figure is more 51-49 to 53-47 than it is 53-47 to 55-45.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I believe undecideds will break pretty evenly this time, which makes me think the real figure is more 51-49 to 53-47 than it is 53-47 to 55-45.

I think we're in agreement on this...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Hugh, what are you thinking about my continual bug-bear in relation to the size of the 'other' vote?

[RogueBeaver]

Another LOL moment: some DJ asked Rudd "if you could ever marry someone like Tony Abbott if you were in a same-sex relationship?" Rudd took a pass. Also, a recap of Rudd's relationship with Murdoch.

[Platypus]

I think all polling is given wayyyy to much value in general, including on here. You're always better off looking at the demographics of a seat and the general trends in different groups than on polling.

But, the high other vote is essentially inflated because of the significant distaste in the electorate for both Labor and Abbott (note, not Rudd and Abbott or Labor and Coalition).

I'd say that ultimately the breakdown will be closer to

48% Coalition
38% Labor
9% Green
5% Other (which is still very high, really)

leading to a TPP of about 52-48.

But I think that this election won't have a real national trend. I see the Coalition massacring Labor in Sydney, but nationally it'll be pretty even. The Coalition will win Australia excluding Sydney about 51-49, but if the rural vote for Labor increases as expected, and WA, QLD and SA are better than I expect for Labor (which seems to be your view?) it could even be 50-50. But Sydney will be 54-46 Coalition, which considering even in 2004 it was the opposite, is pretty indicative of where the issue is. Labor have destroyed themselves in Sydney, both at state and federal level, and while the media there has played a part ultimately it's Labor's own fault.

Interestingly enough, Alan Jones gets something like 28% of the listening audience in his timeslot. Similar right-wing talkback shows get about 10% in the other capitals, except Melbourne, where they struggle to break 4%. Melbourne's influenced by Neil Mitchell though, who sucks up a lot of the right wing but isn't as ridiculous as Jones.

My figures are all from memory, btw

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I do think one of the perverse elements of this election will be the fact that it will likely be a lot closer than the media/public expect... and will take a bit of the shine off the coalition victory.

Rudd has been in Darwin/Palmerston (Solomon), Townsville (Herbert) and Caboolture (Longman) over the past three days... all LNP seats under 2.5%

Hugh and I will be closer in our predictions than many who are predicting an all-over blood-bath, but at that seat-by-seat level, it's hard to find evidence of a genuine blood-bath in the offing.

[Platypus]

Exactly. There are, at an absolute maximum, 18 seats I have as Labor that could go coalition - Lingiari, Blair, Brisbane, Forde, Moreton, Bass, Lyons, Chisholm, Deakin, LaTrobe, McEwen, Barton, Eden-Monaro, Greenway, Kingsford Smith, Page, Parramatta, Werriwa. If they get them all, that's a bloodbath. If they get ten of them, it's a landslide. But I'm confident in my predictions, and there's only eight that could go to the coalition in my final prediction if this week is particularly bad for Labor - Brisbane, Forde, Bass, Deakin, LaTrobe, Greenway, Parramatta, and Werriwa.

Oh, and Melbourne could be Greens.

88 is a strong win, and probably about the point at which it's unrecoverable for Labor at the next election - but a 13 seat changeover is certainly within the realms of real possibility, and that's the max cushion the coalition can have.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Greenway is giving me all kinds of stife... I can't quite figure out what to do with it... will the fact that Diaz is a terrible candidate counter what could be the anti-Labor wave in W.Sydney, I honestly don't know.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Greenway is giving me all kinds of stife... I can't quite figure out what to do with it... will the fact that Diaz is a terrible candidate counter what could be the anti-Labor wave in W.Sydney, I honestly don't know.

I have Greenway as a pure tossup at the moment, if I HAD to give it to either side, I'd give it to the Liberals.

Still extremely disappointed they preselected Jaymes Diaz again...

[morgieb]

Exactly. There are, at an absolute maximum, 18 seats I have as Labor that could go coalition - Lingiari, Blair, Brisbane, Forde, Moreton, Bass, Lyons, Chisholm, Deakin, LaTrobe, McEwen, Barton, Eden-Monaro, Greenway, Kingsford Smith, Page, Parramatta, Werriwa. If they get them all, that's a bloodbath. If they get ten of them, it's a landslide. But I'm confident in my predictions, and there's only eight that could go to the coalition in my final prediction if this week is particularly bad for Labor - Brisbane, Forde, Bass, Deakin, LaTrobe, Greenway, Parramatta, and Werriwa.

Oh, and Melbourne could be Greens.

88 is a strong win, and probably about the point at which it's unrecoverable for Labor at the next election - but a 13 seat changeover is certainly within the realms of real possibility, and that's the max cushion the coalition can have.

I'd probably add McMahon to your list of "Labor seats that could go Coalition too".

Good points overall though.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Nielsen will be out tonight - I'm thinking we'll start to see any incumbent swing that might exist

[Ebowed]

We got the Palmer DVD (in Granydler of all places) last week but chucked it out.

[morgieb]

We got the Palmer DVD (in Granydler of all places) last week but chucked it out.

I live in Grayndler but I didn't get a Palmer DVD