Canadian federal election - 2015

[DC Al Fine]

He was always the favourite, but yeah this ups his chances. I'm sure the Reds will find someone.

Michael Chong?

While, I would love for Chong to run, he re resigned from cabinet over a non-binding motion. Hardly indicative of leadership ambitions.

[Lotuslander]

...and now Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam is up for grabs/advantage to the NDPs Sarah Norman.

One must first understand Moore's redistributed riding of Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam and its demographics before one can come to a conclusion of the election-day outcome:

1. Port Moody portion - Heritage Mountain, which is high-end, single-family residential that goes wayyy up the mountain;

2. Coquitlam - Westwood Plateau, which is also high-end, single-family residential and also goes wayyyy up the mountain;

3. Coquitlam - Burke Mountain, which is also mostly high-end, single-family residential and massive amount of development continuing to occur there as I post;

4. Port Coquitlam - Citadel Heights, which is also higher-end, single-family residential at its southern end;

5. Coquitlam Town Centre - new condo towers continue to sprout up;

6. Everything in-between  - old "brownfield" sites comprising older houses on larger acreages continue to be redeveloped into new townhouse/single-family residential developments;

IOW, residential growth/population growth continues to favour the CPC in the riding. A major CPC collapse would need to occur, during the height of the campaign, in order for the CPC to lose the seat IMHO.

[RogueBeaver]

At this rate, I'd say Raitt or bust for Reds.

[Boston Bread]

The CPC has already collapsed in BC according to a number polls. My model already shows Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam going NDP with current poll numbers. Admittedly, I think the CPC will recover somewhat in the province, but the NDP will keep growing as it displaces the Liberals as the anti-Harper option, so I'd say it's a tossup at this point.

[Lotuslander]

The CPC has already collapsed in BC according to a number polls. My model already shows Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam going NDP with current poll numbers. Admittedly, I think the CPC will recover somewhat in the province, but the NDP will keep growing as it displaces the Liberals as the anti-Harper option, so I'd say it's a tossup at this point.

Just a note of caution, especially regarding BC. We are now ~4 months out from election day. I only need to harken back to the 2013 BC provincial election (with just over 2 weeks to election day) and this conclusion:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://thetyee.ca/News/2013/04/29/NDP-22-Point-Lead/

And then look what actually happened 2 weeks later.

[Hatman 🍁]

Polling numbers in BC are all over the place right now. It's a very polarised province, so high NDP numbers there might not translate into much.

[136or142]

In regards to Moore, somebody here should add that his situation is sad, and I certainly feel sorry for him, though having a special needs child can be a blessing far more than a curse.

Other than his comment to Sara Norman, and equally bad his attempt to deny that he said it, I generally liked James Moore.  He was a mostly competent cabinet minister and seemed to be a decent person.

If he has any interest getting back into politics, he would be a star recruit for the provincial Liberal Party and in many ways, his Red Toryism would be a much better fit for them than it is for the federal Conservatives, if he has any driving interest in provincial issues. 

It likely would not be impossible for him to balance being an MLA and a father of a special needs child.  The legislature doesn't meet most times of the year, and he could probably afford to take an airplane (harbor air?) between Vancouver Island and the mainland once or twice a week.  These airplanes I believe take only 20 minutes to get from Vancouver Island to the mainland.  To be sure, I don't know where these planes land, but if it's the same place as where the Ferries dock in the lower mainland (Tsawwassen, which is part of Delta) the trip from there to Coquitlam depending on the time of day would probably take close to 2 hours if not longer.  Of course, there's no reason for it to be the same place as where the ferries dock.

He would likely become an obvious candidate to replace Christy Clark as leader as I can't think of any obvious successor in her caucus to her at this point.

[136or142]

...and now Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam is up for grabs/advantage to the NDPs Sarah Norman.

One must first understand Moore's redistributed riding of Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam and its demographics before one can come to a conclusion of the election-day outcome:

1. Port Moody portion - Heritage Mountain, which is high-end, single-family residential that goes wayyy up the mountain;

2. Coquitlam - Westwood Plateau, which is also high-end, single-family residential and also goes wayyyy up the mountain;

3. Coquitlam - Burke Mountain, which is also mostly high-end, single-family residential and massive amount of development continuing to occur there as I post;

4. Port Coquitlam - Citadel Heights, which is also higher-end, single-family residential at its southern end;

5. Coquitlam Town Centre - new condo towers continue to sprout up;

6. Everything in-between  - old "brownfield" sites comprising older houses on larger acreages continue to be redeveloped into new townhouse/single-family residential developments;

IOW, residential growth/population growth continues to favour the CPC in the riding. A major CPC collapse would need to occur, during the height of the campaign, in order for the CPC to lose the seat IMHO.

In the provincial election, both the NDP and the Liberals won 2 of the 4 Coquitlam area ridings.  The NDP handily won the Port Coquitlam area riding and won Coquitlam-Maillardville after the special ballots were counted (or in a recount).  The Liberals narrowly won the Port Moody area riding, though that was likely close only because the NDP candidate was the MLA and popular former mayor Joe Trasolini who had won it in a byelection roughly one year earlier.  The Liberals handily won Coquitlam-Burke Mountain.

[RogueBeaver]

CROP shows NPD still ahead of the BQ here in Quebec, +12 generally and +8 among Francophones. PLC in third.

[politicallefty]

Did anyone notice that the Forum poll had the Conservatives up only 39-35 over the NDP in Alberta? That would be more than historic if it happened. Obviously, that's probably quite a bit closer than it should be. I'd have to imagine at least part of the NDP result in Alberta in the fall will hinge on the popularity of the provincial government. What is the general consensus with how Notley has been performing so far and what can be expected over the next couple months?

The EKOS poll does look a lot more realistic with a 50-29 Conservative lead, but even that is quite extraordinary for the NDP by historical standards (and a historical low for the right). Just for fun, but what do these two polls look if you put them in models separately (despite that the Forum poll looks like it would break any model)?

[DC Al Fine]

Did anyone notice that the Forum poll had the Conservatives up only 39-35 over the NDP in Alberta? That would be more than historic if it happened. Obviously, that's probably quite a bit closer than it should be. I'd have to imagine at least part of the NDP result in Alberta in the fall will hinge on the popularity of the provincial government. What is the general consensus with how Notley has been performing so far and what can be expected over the next couple months?

Too early to tell. She's still in her honeymoon period, although that will probably still be the case come October... Still no polls since the election.

The EKOS poll does look a lot more realistic with a 50-29 Conservative lead, but even that is quite extraordinary for the NDP by historical standards (and a historical low for the right). Just for fun, but what do these two polls look if you put them in models separately (despite that the Forum poll looks like it would break any model)?

According to my model:
Forum
Con: 22
NDP: 9
Lib: 3

The NDP all but sweeps Edmonton, but their surge isn't quite big enough to to break out from there. Instead of winning 55-60% in Edmonton and 35-40% elsewhere, they win more like 40-45% in Edmonton and 25% everywhere else.

EKOS
Con: 30
NDP: 4
Lib: 0

NDP wins the most urban bits of Edmonton, plus Lethbridge and doesn't really come close anywhere else.

[adma]

If he has any interest getting back into politics, he would be a star recruit for the provincial Liberal Party and in many ways, his Red Toryism would be a much better fit for them than it is for the federal Conservatives, if he has any driving interest in provincial issues.

Though, coming from the Canadian Alliance wing, James Moore isn't so much a "Red Tory" as a mainstreamish Con whose "liberal" values are more of an authentically generational trait than anything.  (By comparison, Pierre Poilievre is more of an out-and-out zealot.)

[DC Al Fine]

If he has any interest getting back into politics, he would be a star recruit for the provincial Liberal Party and in many ways, his Red Toryism would be a much better fit for them than it is for the federal Conservatives, if he has any driving interest in provincial issues.

Though, coming from the Canadian Alliance wing, James Moore isn't so much a "Red Tory" as a mainstreamish Con whose "liberal" values are more of an authentically generational trait than anything.  (By comparison, Pierre Poilievre is more of an out-and-out zealot.)

I'm not sure about his economics, but according to Campaign Life Coalition, he's one of the most socially liberal Tory MP's.

[politicallefty]

According to my model:
Forum
Con: 22
NDP: 9
Lib: 3

The NDP all but sweeps Edmonton, but their surge isn't quite big enough to to break out from there. Instead of winning 55-60% in Edmonton and 35-40% elsewhere, they win more like 40-45% in Edmonton and 25% everywhere else.

EKOS
Con: 30
NDP: 4
Lib: 0

NDP wins the most urban bits of Edmonton, plus Lethbridge and doesn't really come close anywhere else.

What's the general order of seats for the NDP based on the models? Obviously, the first two are Edmonton Strathcona and Edmonton Griesbach. Is Edmonton Centre at the top? I only ask because that is the former Liberal top target in the province. In the Forum projection, I'm assuming at least two of those Liberal seats are in Calgary, correct?

[Boston Bread]

These are my model's numbers based on my current polling average.48.1/15.4/29.9 CPC/LPC/NDP are the province wide numbers.

[DC Al Fine]

According to my model:
Forum
Con: 22
NDP: 9
Lib: 3

The NDP all but sweeps Edmonton, but their surge isn't quite big enough to to break out from there. Instead of winning 55-60% in Edmonton and 35-40% elsewhere, they win more like 40-45% in Edmonton and 25% everywhere else.

EKOS
Con: 30
NDP: 4
Lib: 0

NDP wins the most urban bits of Edmonton, plus Lethbridge and doesn't really come close anywhere else.

What's the general order of seats for the NDP based on the models? Obviously, the first two are Edmonton Strathcona and Edmonton Griesbach. Is Edmonton Centre at the top? I only ask because that is the former Liberal top target in the province. In the Forum projection, I'm assuming at least two of those Liberal seats are in Calgary, correct?

Edmonton Centre is #6 in my projection. It his historically one of the best Liberal ridings, so their improvement in Alberta will have more effect there than other places where the Liberals are non-existent and the NDP are the main progressive party.

The Liberal seats were all in Calgary. The party is toxic outside the cities. Even in their 1993 landslide, their best rural result was in the low 20's and in 2011 they polled <5% in most rural areas.

[136or142]

If he has any interest getting back into politics, he would be a star recruit for the provincial Liberal Party and in many ways, his Red Toryism would be a much better fit for them than it is for the federal Conservatives, if he has any driving interest in provincial issues.

Though, coming from the Canadian Alliance wing, James Moore isn't so much a "Red Tory" as a mainstreamish Con whose "liberal" values are more of an authentically generational trait than anything.  (By comparison, Pierre Poilievre is more of an out-and-out zealot.)

I'm not sure about his economics, but according to Campaign Life Coalition, he's one of the most socially liberal Tory MP's.

Based on his time as Industry Minister he seems to fit comfortably into Blue Liberal/Mainstream Conservative thinking:  government investment into high tech, so-called smart regulation and deregulation and pro free trade, especially, in his case, interprovincial free trade.

All of these things are completely compatible with the provincial Liberals. He has since said though that he plans to run again for the Federal Conservatives in short order, so even taking him out of consideration for the federal Conservative leadership may be premature.

[136or142]

Jessie Adcock, Gregor Roberson's Chief Digital Officer won the Liberal nomination yesterday in Port Moody-Coquitlam over another tech sector type, business person Anthony Chohan.

[trebor204]

Gordon Giesbrecht, aka 'Professor Popsicle' has won the Conservative nomination in Winnipeg South
 
http://www.winnipegsun.com/2015/06/20/giesbrecht-wins-conservative-race-in-winnipeg-south

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZuZgSQZJ9g

[DL]

I predict "Professor Popsicle" will melt into a wet puddle...the Tories are likely to lose most if not all of their seats in Winnipeg

[lilTommy]

Project Montréal councillor Peter McQueen is planning to run for the NDP nomination in Notre-Dame-de-Grace—Westmount... against Liberal Marc Garneau

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/peter-mcqueen-ndg-city-councillor-makes-jump-to-federal-politics-1.3122048

[RogueBeaver]

Grits making new policy announcements every week.

More Tory leadership absurdity from Den Tandt.

Premier approval ratings: Wall and Notley only popular ones. Couillard ticking up.

Completely agreed with Maioni.

[136or142]

New B.C Conservative Party candidates.  
I'd say they have some pretty good first time candidates, but other than Dianne Watts, they only have a couple other high profile candidates.

The Conservatives won 21 of the 36 B.C ridings in the last election.  With 6 incumbents retiring (so far) and 6 new ridings that makes for 27 new candidates.  They've nominated 19 of them so far.

Vancouver
1.Vancouver-Granville (new riding), Erinn Broshko, Lawyer, Rand Investments Corp Managing Director/Management Consulting Firm Principal, M.A-Political Science, MBA

2.Vancouver-Kingsway, Francisco (Jojo) Quimpo, Rock Singer and Arts Promotion Firm Owner, Former Paralegal and Law Firm Evidence Management Co-Ordinator

Lower Mainland
1.Burnaby North-Seymour (new riding) Mike Little, Operations Westran Portside Terminals, North Vancouver District Councillor 2005-2014, B.A-Political Science and Government

2.New Westminster-Burnaby, Chloe Ellis,25, General Manager Volume Studio Ltd (Combined Art Gallery and Hair Salon), BBA-Marketing Management, MBA

3.Port Moody-Coquitlam, Tim Laidler, Executive Director Veteran's Armed Forces Transition Network, Retired Canadian Forces Corporal, B.A-Philosophy and Political Science, M.A-Counselling Psychology

4.Steveston-Richmond East (new riding), Kenny Chiu, Firm Senior Software Development Manager, Richmond School Trustee 2011-2014

Fraser Valley
1.Cloverdale-Langley City (new riding), Dean Drysdale, Business Management Professor, Corporate Finance Consultant and Firm Owner (Chartwell Strategies Corp), Canadian Army Reserves Lieutenant Colonel and Former Artillery Officer, C.A Designation, B.A-Economics, MBA, PhD-Organizational Behavior, Langley Township Councillor 1996-2002

2.Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon (new riding), Liv Grewal (son of Nina and Gurmant Grewel), Behavioral Economics Consultant (Good Nudge Consultants), Former Harper PMO Intern, B.A-Political Science, M.Sc-Public Management and Governance (from LSE)

3.South Surrey-White Rock (Conservative Riding - Russ Hiebert), Dianne Watts, Former Credit Manager and Former Architecture Firm Materials Consultant, Surrey City Councillor 1996-2005, Surrey Mayor 2005-2014

4.Surrey Center, Suche Thind, President Mainland Aluminum Co (Aluminum railing design, manufacture and installation), B.A-

5.Surrey-Newton, Harpreet Singh, Joy T.V Harpreet Singh Show Host and Producer (Contemporary Religion Program), Former Journalist, M.A-Journalism

Vancouver Island
1.Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke, Shari Lukens, Former Telus Vancouver Island Sales Manager and Former Project Manager, Former Television News Anchor and Journalist, Former Figure Skater and Head Coach, BCIT Broadcasting Diploma, Colwood City Councillor 2011-2014

2.Nanaimo-Ladysmith, Mark McDonald, Former Managing Editor Nanaimo Daily News, President Invest Northwest Publishing (Publisher of four Monthly Business Examiner Newspapers), Greater Nanaimo Chamber of Commerce Executive and Former President

3.North Island-Powell River (Conservative Riding-John Duncan) (Duncan is sort of relocating to the adjacent Courtney-Alberni riding to replace retiring Conservative (Ind) M.P James Lunney), Laura Smith,45, M.P John Duncan Senior Advisor, Former Operational Forester, Search and Rescue Volunteer, B.Sc-Biology

4.Victoria, John Rizzuti,66, Small Business Owner, Retired Elementary School Principal, Former President B.C Principals and Vice Principals Association, 2014 Greater Victoria School Board Candidate (12,458 votes), B-Ed, M-Ed

Interior
1.Cariboo-Prince George (Conservative riding-Dick Harris), Todd Doherty, Former Prince George Airport Authority Director of Business Development-Aviation Services

2.North Okanagan-Shuswap (Conservative riding-Colin Mayes), Mel Arnold, Owner Complete Marine Detailing (Repair Facility), Past President B.C Wildlife Federation

3.Skeena-Bulkley Valley, Tyler Nesbitt,31, Road Maintenance Company (Nechako Northcoast), Operations and Quality Assurance Coordinator, B.A-Anthropolgy/Archaeology

4.South Okanagan-West Kootenay, Marshall Neufeld, Realtor, Former M.P Stockwell Day Senior Parliamentary Assistant, Former Physiotherapy Assistant, Conservative Party of Canada National Council Member,  Penticton Christian School Board Vice Chair (elected?)  


 

[DC Al Fine]

More Tory leadership absurdity from Den Tandt.

Agreed especially about Wall. Why give up being God-King of Saskatchewan to muck around in federal politics?

[RogueBeaver]

So, my riding is seeing a bunch of local notables lining up for the Dipper nomination. McQueen's another high-profile one.