Australia 2013 - Results thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's because the 'calls' aren't really calls. Quite a lot can still move around the edges as counting progresses.

[Mr. Morden]

Interesting that a libertarian will be in the senate. What's PUP all about?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palmer_United_Party

[Platypus]

E-M booths not counted are both in Queanbeyan.

In 2010, the Queanbeyan PPVC had 57% TPP for Kelly, out of 3,683 votes.

Divisional office only has 363 votes, but 60% Kelly.

Hospital voters in the hundreds, and basically matched the electorate, slight advantage Kelly compared to seat percentage.

So, he'll pull back ahead until we get to absentee:

He did 3% better on them than the seat as a whole, and there were 2302.

A handful of provisionals, where he thumped it.

At this point I'd put him reasonably comfortably ahead, until...

Postal votes. Last time, 5231 of them, and he got just a smidgeon under 50%. Expect that to follow the swing in the seat and say he'll get about 47%, and the seat is right back on a knife's edge. Give them a stronger coalition advantage, as some suggest is necessary, and he loses.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Don Farrell made a big mistake allowing Penny Wong to take his number one spot on Labor's senate ticket. What a shame.

Considering she's a voice for progress - no doubt you'd hate her.

[Hash]

How wonderfully depressing.

(Voters are idiots, example #657,879)

[Vosem]

Well, whether you can call them 'calls' or not, McEwen has been uncalled for the ALP, though they still have an 0.4% advantage there. This means there are 4 Coalition/ALP marginals yet to be called at this moment, with the ALP ahead in Lingiari and McEwen, while the Liberals are ahead in Barton and Reid (though it is a 0.0% advantage in both seats; they are the narrowest in all of Australia).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It can be undone in two-terms, if the ALP gets its arse in gear.

[YL]

ABC currently showing the Australian Sports Party, whoever they are, getting a seat in the Senate from WA with 0.22% of the first preference vote.  Even if it doesn't stay like that, it really makes this above the line system look ridiculous, and I say that as someone who likes the basic idea of STV.

[Vosem]

Maybe 10 seats were just uncalled I ing give up what the

[Bacon King]

I have no idea what the "Australian Motoring Enthusiasts Party" or "Australian Sports Party" are but I'm very amused that they're both possibly winning Senate seats

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

ABC currently showing the Australian Sports Party, whoever they are, getting a seat in the Senate from WA with 0.22% of the first preference vote.  Even if it doesn't stay like that, it really makes this above the line system look ridiculous, and I say that as someone who likes the basic idea of STV.

Maybe more people voted below the line this election? I know I did.

[Bacon King]

I did some research and these minor party Senate wins might be explained by the fact that there's this new alliance of thirty minor parties to share preferences with each other

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The scale is basically just designed to show us what we need to know (i.e. where is close and where is super close) rather than the full picture in All Its Questionable Glory. Because there's no point doing the latter for a while yet.

[YL]

According to their website the Australian Sports Party support "Healthy Living Through Sport" and say

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I suspect that if we had this system in the UK we'd have a decent chance of a Raving Loony Senator...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Results in the Hunter are interesting: decent (given everything) Labor results in three seats out of four, the exception being Hunter. Which has since the 1980s been a very rural seat with a lot of natural Nationals territory, but personal votes eventually made that look to be not so.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

My CNN app on my phone alerted me about three hours ago that Abbott won a "landslide victory." I can't find exact results anywhere, but I watched Abbott's victory speech. Coalition has 88 seats to Labors 57, with the Greens only having one, if I recall correctly. I won't pretend to know anything about the politics of Australia, but didn't the Greens underperform by about 2-3%? I saw polling that had them up to 12% in some cases.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No, this wasn't a landslide. Solid victory though.

Detailed results can be found in various places, but http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/ and http://www.aec.gov.au/results are your best bets.

[Platypus]

I think I said earlier that 88 is the point at which Labor could potentially win the next election. Including Indi and Fairxfax on the Coalition side for the sake of the argument, it looks like it'll be 89-91ish.

It's a landslide, but nobody got killed

Also, just a reminder that thirty votes here or there can change the order of elimination in the senate, which has flow on effects for round after round after round. While it's pretty clear that the Coalition will be much happier with the Senate results than Labor, the actual numbers aren't even close to apparent yet, and won't be for days. The 6th senator in a couple of states might even be weeks.

But considering that they don't take their seats for 10 months, plenty of time to count

[Kitteh]

My CNN app on my phone alerted me about three hours ago that Abbott won a "landslide victory." I can't find exact results anywhere, but I watched Abbott's victory speech. Coalition has 88 seats to Labors 57, with the Greens only having one, if I recall correctly. I won't pretend to know anything about the politics of Australia, but didn't the Greens underperform by about 2-3%? I saw polling that had them up to 12% in some cases.

Not really, this is about what most polls had them at, which is sort of an overperformance because typically the Greens poll higher than they actually get. Most important for them is that they held onto Melbourne relatively easily, which is a mild upset given that a lot were predicting they'd lose it on the Liberals switching prefs to Labor over them. Still an overall decline from the last election though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One interesting result wrt the Greens is that they seem to be out of even potential contention in the division of Sydney: down to 17% on primaries, which is 13pts behind the Liberals. This is the lowest they've been for over a decade. They lost ground in Grayndler as well (and dropped back to third) but not as much.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mallee currently looks like: Nat 39.6, Lib 26.8, ALP 17.3

I think that would mean a hold for the straw-chewers?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

You better run, you better take cover!

[Kitteh]

One interesting result wrt the Greens is that they seem to be out of even potential contention in the division of Sydney: down to 17% on primaries, which is 13pts behind the Liberals. This is the lowest they've been for over a decade. They lost ground in Grayndler as well (and dropped back to third) but not as much.

They won a seat in the last NSW state elections, no? Which division is that in? (or am I misremembering?)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One interesting result wrt the Greens is that they seem to be out of even potential contention in the division of Sydney: down to 17% on primaries, which is 13pts behind the Liberals. This is the lowest they've been for over a decade. They lost ground in Grayndler as well (and dropped back to third) but not as much.

They won a seat in the last NSW state elections, no? Which division is that in? (or am I misremembering?)

They - just about - managed to win Balmain, which is split between Grayndler and Sydney in federal terms. But that was only because NSW Labor imploded.

[Mr. Morden]

According to their website the Australian Sports Party support "Healthy Living Through Sport" and say

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Since no party has anywhere close to a Senate majority, these parties winning just one seat will control the balance of power.  Isn't democracy fun?