EP elections 2014 - Results Thread

[Diouf]

The vote in the EP on Juncker will be on the 16th July, and the European Council will have an informal dinner that evening to decide on the remaining posts if Juncker is accepted. These are the President of the European Council, the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, and perhaps a permanent leader of the Eurogroup and other importants posts in the Commission.

[EPG]

Childersing would involve quitting after your party stops being omniopposition omnipopular rockstars. This case is extremely unseemly haste.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/12/why-good-europeans-despair-jean-claude-juncker-commission

[Velasco]

Jean-Claude Juncker has been confirmed president of the Commission, winning 422 votes out of 751 in the EP. He collected votes from the EPP (including Orbán), the S&D (except Labour and PSOE), most of ALDE and even some Greens. The Spanish socialists voted against Juncker by petition of Pedro Sánchez, the new PSOE leader elected on Sunday in a primary held amongst the militancy. Some veterans MEPs like Ramón Jáuregui -who stated that "it wasn't an easy decision"- were restless because they say they didn't want to vote in the same way as Marine Le Pen, but they obeyed the new leadership.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

the militancy.

Technically the correct word would be 'activists', but I always love this particular mistranslation into English.

[Velasco]

the militancy.

Technically the correct word would be 'activists', but I always love this particular mistranslation into English.

I'm afraid I was deceived by a false friend (indeed, 'militancia' and 'miltancy' are not exactly the same thing). I guess 'membership' is correct too. Anyway, the PSOE 'activists' elected a new leader called Pedro Sánchez Castejón (42), who defeated Eduardo Madina (38) and other candidate from the left faction . He's economist, skillful in political marketing and has been an unknown backbencher to date. It's possible that he's a man of the Andalusia premier, Susana Díaz. He received huge support in that region and also other regional leaders backed his candidacy. Sánchez claims that his models are Felipe González and Matteo Renzi.   

[You kip if you want to...]

the militancy.

Technically the correct word would be 'activists', but I always love this particular mistranslation into English.

I'm afraid I was deceived by a false friend (indeed, 'militancia' and 'miltancy' are not exactly the same thing). I guess 'membership' is correct too. Anyway, the PSOE 'activists' elected a new leader called Pedro Sánchez Castejón (42), who defeated Eduardo Madina (38) and other candidate from the left faction . He's economist, skillful in political marketing and has been an unknown backbencher to date. It's possible that he's a man of the Andalusia premier, Susana Díaz. He received huge support in that region and also other regional leaders backed his candidacy. Sánchez claims that his models are Felipe González and Matteo Renzi.    

Definitely OT, but tell me about this Podemos. Are they a bit like Syriza? What effect are they having on the PSOE and the PP?

[Velasco]

Oh yes, they have many programmatic coincidences with Syriza. The Economist defines Podemos as the "internet-savvy" equivalent in Spain of the Greek 'radical' left, which The Very Serious paper says it's far-left. Others define Podemos as "left-wing anti-austerity" or a "left-wing party with a far-left base" The effect caused by Podemos I'd say is something like a conmotion and  last polls indicate the party is at a popularity peak. PP and the right have chosen frontal attack, criticising the "far-left populism" and some Pablo Iglesias statements on ETA (he said terrorism has a political motivation and the right says that's a justification). Also, they claim that Podemos and Iglesias have been financed by Venezuela (the EP campaign was cheap and financed by internet crowfunding, according to Podemos). I think PP hopes that the fear of Podemos might mobilise abstentionists in the right, which damaged seriously the ruling party on May 25. The PSOE was directly affected by Podemos, but I wouldn't be good for them using the same tactic. Pedro Sánchez, the new leader-elect, has stated that Podemos is a "respectable force" but criticising the "populistic" economic proposals, because he considers "they might lead Spain to the Crash of 1929" and destroy the economy. I guess that gives an idea of how PSOE will approach the problem. Podemos calls the two ruling parties "La Casta" (The Caste). One of the first effects caused by the surge of Podemos, aside Rubalcaba retirement for the bad result, is the enforcement of primaries and other sorts of 'direct democracy' inside PSOE and IU. The last party disdained open primaries because the IU leadership considered them "an American invention", but they have changed their minds and gave more power to young deputy Alberto Garzón in order to approach Podemos.

It's not sure if there will be a left-wing coalition between IU, Podemos and other parties in the forthcoming elections. On the other hand, such coalition might not have the same result achieved in the EP elections separately; some of Podemos voters might not like it. One of the possible explanations of the Podemos' success is the so-called 'volatile left', a concept coined in 2007 by sociologist César Molinas (link below). According to him, there's a wide and heterogeneous group of left-wing voters disenchanted and uncomfortable with the 'institutional left' (PSOE and IU) which oscillates between both parties and abstention. The 'volatile left' has as common dennominators: a) outright rejection of PP and the right; and b) disdain for PSOE, a party to which they vote occasionally covering their noses. That theory is somewhat controversial for some sociologists, but I think it can explain the mobilisation in favour of Podemos in the last EP elections.

http://elpais.com/diario/2007/11/11/opinion/1194735611_850215.html

It's quite interesting the last CIS survey, which shows that support for Podemos is widespread across social classes, whereas there's a negative correlation between income and support for PSOE. Podemos is particularly strong amongst young, urban and educated people (between 18 and 34), but not only. It also has a good share amongst not so young people (34-54) and little amongst the elder (65+). PP has exactly the opposite age group distribution; extremely weak in the younger and strong in the elder.  According to CIS, amongst Podemos' voters unemployed have a share similar to the current unemployment rate (26.5%), but the new party is very strong amongst precarious workers that perceive that likely they are going to lose their current jobs (23.5%).

[justfollowingtheelections]

Thanks for the info Velasco.  I am definitely a Podemos supporter now.

[minionofmidas]

Re PARTEI

http://www.taz.de/Martin-Sonneborn-ueber-seinen-neuen-Job/!141709/

[Middle-aged Europe]

Re PARTEI

http://www.taz.de/Martin-Sonneborn-ueber-seinen-neuen-Job/!141709/

So, he's breaking his campaign promise of resigning his seat after 30 days in parliament? Just like any party, DIE PARTEI is just after the power and the money!!!

[Velasco]

Re PARTEI

http://www.taz.de/Martin-Sonneborn-ueber-seinen-neuen-Job/!141709/

So, he's breaking his campaign promise of resigning his seat after 30 days in parliament? Just like any party, DIE PARTEI is just after the power and the money!!!

Rebuilt the Wall in Berlin now.

[Velasco]

Thanks for the info Velasco.  I am definitely a Podemos supporter now.

I have mixed feelings and I'm ambivalent about Podemos. Trying to explain why would be definitely off-topic and, in any case, I need some time to clarify my own position.

[swl]

It appears now that the decision to delay the choice for the top-EU posts was quite fortunate, and the Mogherini - Thorning-Schmidt is in danger, at least the first one.

Mogherini was already rejected by a number of countries for being too pro-Russian. After the last events, the opposition is becoming much stronger. Also, Italia wanted the post of Foreigns Affairs and Security to bring the topic of illegal immigration to the fore, and it appears now that the European diplomacy will have to focus instead on the relation with Russia and, to a lesser extent, on the Middle-East. The name of Elisabeth Guigou is circulating and it's quite a plausible option. And since she is a Socialist like Mogherini, Thorning-Schmidt would probably keep the EU council job.

[Tender Branson]

Looks like it will be Tusk/Mogherini after all:

http://kurier.at/politik/eu/eu-gipfel-kreis-wird-enger-bruessel-entscheidet-ueber-top-jobs/82.925.856

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/30/polish-prime-minister-donald-tusk-president-european-council

Helle Thorning-Schmidt has ruled herself out for any EU top-job.

[Јas]

[Velasco]

LOL, glorious news! Cañete has been appointed Commisioner for Climate Action and Energy. Definetely, the EC is a joke. As we say here, que Dios nos coja confesados.

[swl]

I think most of the success of this commission will depend on the vice-presidents. These 'super-commissioners' are a new thing, we will see how it works.

As for Canete, he was the candidate put forward by the Spanish goverment, so Juncker had to chose him, but is he going to be accepted by the European Parliament? They need the socialists to approve as well to get a majority.

[EPG]

I think the vice-presidents could be deceptive. Important, yes, but Moscovici in Economic Affairs and Vestager in Competition are more important. Even Ireland's Phil Hogan will have more influence on the important TTIP than some of the vice-presidents. In contrast, Dombrovskis and Anslip have pretty vague and all-encompassing roles that could command authority over large areas in principle but which aren't yet established.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What was Conete like as an environment minister? I know about the "debating with women" idiocy, but was he a known tool before the gaffe as well?

[Velasco]

I think most of the success of this commission will depend on the vice-presidents. These 'super-commissioners' are a new thing, we will see how it works.

As for Canete, he was the candidate put forward by the Spanish goverment, so Juncker had to chose him, but is he going to be accepted by the European Parliament? They need the socialists to approve as well to get a majority.

Exactly, those country-based power quotas are part of the joke. It seems that Cañete is going to be subordinated to vice-president Alenka Bratusek, from Slovenia. I know nothing about her. As for the approval from the EP, as far as I know the issue was the few women in the EC. At first, I have no reason to think that European socialists are going to reject Cañete. PSOE might oppose him symbolically -previously the party voted against Juncker-, but at the moment I haven't read anything suggesting that. However, PSOE MEP Iratxe García stated that they are going to investigate if there exists conflict of interests, because Cañete is the chairman of the board of directors in two Spanish oil enterprises and owns 2.5% of their capital. That is another part of the joke and it might provoke his rejection, hypothetically. Juncker says that he doesn't consider it. We'll see.

What was Conete like as an environment minister? I know about the "debating with women" idiocy, but was he a known tool before the gaffe as well?

Cañete was minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Environment. He had previous gaffes, but not regarding women. Juncker said that from his first speeches, everybody will know that he's not who people thinks he is. Don't discard another funny stories, just in case.

('Conete' sounds funny in Spanish. If I put a 'ñ', it would be an obscenity)

[Diouf]

I think the vice-presidents could be deceptive. Important, yes, but Moscovici in Economic Affairs and Vestager in Competition are more important. Even Ireland's Phil Hogan will have more influence on the important TTIP than some of the vice-presidents. In contrast, Dombrovskis and Anslip have pretty vague and all-encompassing roles that could command authority over large areas in principle but which aren't yet established.

Well, if you look at the formal powers the vice-presidents have been given, they do seem quite powerful. Moscovici's job is nowhere near the one Olli Rehn had.

From the Financial Times:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4a28b800-3901-11e4-9cce-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3D0i9Z2mf

Currently, it looks like the most threathened commissiner-designates are Miguel Arias Canete, Karmenu Vella, and Jonathan Hill. Canete due to his women-comment, his shares in two oil companies and not being perceived as "green" enough. Vella due to the fact that his role include evaluation of birds and habitats directives, while Malta apparently likes to shoot birds off the sky. Hill due to opposition from the Social Democrats, and the fact that he is a British Conservative, although his exact degree of Euroscepticism is not really known yet, but I guess he will just repeat the renegotiation line. Gianni Pitella from S&D said that "Financial services is too important and sensitive a job to be given to a conservative with a liberal, free-market approach. The financial sector urgently needs better regulation and we will not accept any backward step on this issue. It's a matter of principle. We promise to be very tough with Lord Hill."
I think Hill could scrape through. He will probably have the backing of most of the EPP and ECR, and many from ALDE; he could probably convince a few social democrats to support him as well. Vella's chances probably depend on his comments and attitudes to the Maltese bird problem, but I think he will make it. Canete will have a very hard time indeed; I think it's even doubtful how loyal the centre-right MEPs will be to him. He will really have to perform at the hearings. Other Commissioner-designates could of course quickly find themselves under threat if new informations are published or if they fail at the hearings.


http://www.socialistsanddemocrats.eu/newsroom/gianni-pittella-commission-must-open-new-phase-some-candidates-must-be-scrutinised-very

[EPG]

What is most meaningful is how many staff these people have. DGs Economic Affairs and Competition have big, entrenched bureaucracies that are skilled at what they do. Some of the new vice-presidencies, presumably, don't. In Euro-bureaucracy world, any project officially shared between these offices will be directed by the biggest, richest one.

[swl]

The anti-pro EU dimension (I also called it sovereignty-intergration) on 1d for more visibility:



I further divided the Left-Right dimension in more dimensions, if you wonder what's in it:

[swl]

After a few corrections:



Details of each EP group (one blue dot=one party):