Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Meeker]

I'm having trouble wrapping my head around the NDP representing that much of rural Alberta. How could so many people who have been voting for right-wing parties for decades suddenly start supporting such an established left-wing brand?

We'll find out Tuesday, but the so called "rural Alberta" includes a lot of mid sized cities (Lethbridge, Reed Deer, Medicine Hat, Grande Prairie) that will end up voting quite differently than the true rural ridings.

Ah, good point. I had just been clicking around the really rural constituencies in the north.

Even the North isn't rural. It's usually called "remote". Cities and towns linked through totally empty forests. There is no farming there.

Gotcha, makes sense.

Regardless, the suddenness of this all still gives me pause. They've been polling above 20% for only about five weeks. But I guess nothing should surprise me after the 2011 federal election.

[DL]

The NDP has routinely won Moose Jaw and Prince Albert and The Battlefords in Saskatchewan and Brandon in Manitoba  How different are those towns from Medicine Hat, Lethbridge! Grande Prairie or Red Deer?

[cp]

Carter says his PC sources are saying they're still confident of a majority. Globe's Justin Giovanetti says same, Edmonton Journal's Graham Thomson hints.

I'm really perplexed about this. Do they know something we don't (the polls really *are* completely wrong; their GOTV is insanely good) or is it just whistling past the graveyard?

This being Alberta I can't shake the feeling that the NDP will end up coming up short. However, if they end up pulling it off the meltdown in the PC HQ will be something to behold.

[morgieb]

If the NDP get up (as looks likely), this is the equivalent of Labor winning the North Shore, right?

[RogueBeaver]

Pollster Bruce Cameron of ROI predicts a PC win, either small majority or minority. Would Jean and Notley try an Accord in a PC minority situation, or let them peter out for a year before moving non-confidence?

Forum: 42/24/21.

[Thomas D]

What time do the polls close?  I've seen 7:30 Alberta time, is that correct?

[RogueBeaver]

Elections Alberta says 8 PM.

[Thomas D]

Hmmm....These elections this week are going to wreak havoc on my sleep schedule.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Pollster Bruce Cameron of ROI predicts a PC win, either small majority or minority. Would Jean and Notley try an Accord in a PC minority situation, or let them peter out for a year before moving non-confidence?

Forum: 42/24/21.

I still have a hard time seeing how the NDP doesn't at the very least get a minority government, as for the PCs or Wildrose to win at this point the polls would have to be off by something like 25-30%, which would make even the worst of all previous polling failures look like margin of error movement. Also by this point in 2012, the polls were starting to close somewhat, but the NDP is only expanding their lead now.

[Talleyrand]

If the NDP get up (as looks likely), this is the equivalent of Labor winning the North Shore, right?

Basically, at least in the historical shock value.

[Boston Bread]

I had been worrying that Canada would be without an NDP provincial government in any province.

Even if the NDP lose in Alberta there's still a decent chance the Yukon could elect the NDP before the MB election occurs, so there is a second chance to prevent the NDP from being locked out. The last Yukon poll which was a long time ago had 40% Yukon Party, 39% NDP I believe.

[Hatman 🍁]

Pollster Bruce Cameron of ROI predicts a PC win, either small majority or minority. Would Jean and Notley try an Accord in a PC minority situation, or let them peter out for a year before moving non-confidence?

Forum: 42/24/21.

Last year Forum put out a poll on the Sunday and the Monday before election day, so maybe they'll have one tomorrow too?

I believe that we will have a poll out tomorrow too, but don't quote me on that.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are the Forum tables: http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Alberta%20Horserace%20News%20Release%20%282015%2005%2002%29%20Forum%20Research.pdf

NDP continue to lead among younger Albertans, and the wealthy (bizarrely, so, but nothing new in this campaign). No real difference between the genders, which is also bizarre, but nothing new.

What is new I think is that the NDP now leads among 2012 PC voters (40-35)!

[Boston Bread]

Putting the Forum results in my model gives
61 NDP, 23 WR, 2 PC, 1 AB

Whereas Forum's seat projection gives
69 NDP, 16 WR, 2 PC

In both models the Liberals get wiped out. But most notably is the efficiency (or lack of) in the PC vote. If the PCs are over 30% they are very efficient. But below 25% their wide but thin pattern of support causes them to absolutely collapse in the seat count.

[Hatman 🍁]

This is why the election outcome is not certain yet. We know there may be a last minute swing to the PCs. If it's big enough, it could be the difference between nearly being wiped out or a sizable official opposition.

[Bacon King]

Isn't it already the last minute though?

[Hatman 🍁]

Isn't it already the last minute though?

No. Look at last election's polling. Forum detected a large swing between their Sunday poll and their Monday poll. If you extrapolate to election day, the there was another large swing.

We'll see from tomorrow's polls if there is any momentum to the Tories.

[136or142]

Don't count out the NDP in Manitoba by any means.

[DC Al Fine]

Here are the Forum tables: http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Alberta%20Horserace%20News%20Release%20%282015%2005%2002%29%20Forum%20Research.pdf

NDP continue to lead among younger Albertans, and the wealthy (bizarrely, so, but nothing new in this campaign). No real difference between the genders, which is also bizarre, but nothing new.

It shouldn't be that surprising. It's not like they are running TNF and there are plenty of better off civil servants out there.

[136or142]

What is TNF?

[DC Al Fine]

What is TNF?

TNF is a Marxist poster here who talks about guillotining the rich every few posts. Point is, there's not a lot about Notley to scare away the well off, and I say this as someone who really dislikes the NDP.

[136or142]

Thanks!

[RogueBeaver]

Den Tandt, Mason, Braid have good pieces.

Speaking of EKOS: Graves isn't finished yet but his current raw data says 43/26/22. Forum and DL said Tories would be Campbelled with those numbers.

Gerson says she's hearing that Prentice's own Calgary-Foothills is endangered... Dippers well ahead. Also noted that the same was said of Redford 3 years ago.

[Hatman 🍁]

I take it an NDP government isn't going to try to bring in PR? 43% sounds amazing, but PC+WRP is higher. Alberta is still a centre right province.

[Holmes]

Prentice in danger of losing his seat to the NDP? I can't exactly say that I believe it. Then again, it's still hard to wrap my head around the fact that Alberta will be a different place after the election on Tuesday, and it looks to be the NDP that is going to lead that change.