German federal election (September 18, 2005)

[minionofmidas]

Why is Schroeder so insistant about not forming a coalition with the Greens again? Have there been problems over the past four years within the Red-Green government?

Hu? You what, mate?

[minionofmidas]

Lewis, Old Europe and other Germans: why?? why is the German people about to create a mess for themselves??

Yeah, I don't get it either. 80% to vote for parties with hopelessly outdated neoliberal ideologies that will drive this country to the wall.

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I do need to point it out one more time. No such thing as a massive advantage for Merkel ever, at any point in the campaign. That willingness to vote among SPD supporters would pick up during the campaign was always plain for everybody to know and see, the only thing in doubt was the extent (and more could have been hoped for.)
I know lots of CDU voters - but I don't know anybody even contemplating a CDU vote this time that didn't vote CDU or FDP three years ago.

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Uninspiring? Definitely. Unimpressive? Not sure what you mean.

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Nah, not gonna happen.


One more time, for everybody. Effective taxation in Germany is actually below the OECD average. And most of it is payroll taxes. What Germany needs - desperately needs - is more corporate and self-employed taxation, not less. And higher wages. Look at stats of wage developments over the past few years in different countries. Wages are rising by several percentage points a year in places like Austria, the Netherlands and the UK that have "defeated unemployment". They're stagnant in Germany.

[Middle-aged Europe]

(Btw - if the CDU and FDP really were to try that, they wouldn't force new elections. In all likelihood, they'd force a red-red-green coalition instead.)

Or it means that the CDU doesn't actually believe in the possibility of a SPD/Left Party/Green coalition and uses it only as a scare tactic for election purposes.

Lewis, Old Europe and other Germans: why?? why is the German people about to create a mess for themselves??

What mess? Polls are showing that a relatively large part of the electorate actually prefers a grand coalition. It's only so that it isn't a very popular option among the political elite of the country.

My alternative scenario is that, everybody just trying to create a majority government, splits to CDU/CSU and SPD, just abandoning Greens, FDP and Left Party (maybe just one of them entering the Bundestag). That would be interesting.

What Lewis said... that's not going to happen.

Why is Schroeder so insistant about not forming a coalition with the Greens again? Have there been problems over the past four years within the Red-Green government?

It isn't so much a question of not wanting, but not being able to anymore. SPD and Greens are polling together somewhere between 39% and 41%... far from being sufficient for a majority.

What he doesn't want is to govern together with the Left Party (meaning: Lafontaine). He would perhaps like to govern together with the Greens and the FDP, but the FDP (and probably the Greens too) wouldn't do this. He would probably also like to govern in a grand coalition as long as he stays Chancellor, but in order to manage this, the SPD would have to become the larger of the two parties in the Bundestag again. In other words: He ran out of options.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, let's see...

the CDU has ruled out a coalition with the SPD,

the FDP has ruled out a coalition with the SPD and the Greens,

the SPD and the Greens have ruled out a coalition with the Left Party,

the Left Party has ruled out a coalition with the SPD and the Greens.
 

So, in the case that CDU/CSU and FDP won't have a majority this sunday anarchy will either become our new official form of government or someone will have to break his/her promise concerning possible coalitions in order to maintain a working government. So, who's gonna be the "liar"?

You forgot the one possible combination not ruled out above...

...CDU/CSU + FDP + Left Party...
*ducks*

Well, to put it the other way...

CDU/CSU: Ruled out a coalition with any party, except for the FDP.

FDP: Ruled out a coalition with any party, except for the CDU/CSU.

SPD: Ruled out a coalition with no party, except for the Left.PDS. However, all coalitions other than with the Greens (CDU/CSU, FDP, and even Left Party) remain controversial within the party, with supporters and opponents for each option.

Greens: Ruled out a coalition with any party, except for the SPD.

Left Party: Ruled out a coalition with really any party, no exceptions.

[Storebought]

Hmmm, if the 3 smaller parties manage to regularly reach the requirements for proportional seats and a subsequent necessary grand coalition becomes a regular necessity, this could start a new discussion about the whole election system.

Btw, a really odd rumour has come up now... according to a newspaper report Merkel allegedly plans to hold another election in the case that CDU/CSU and FDP won't win a majority on this sunday. Either some journalists are taking some really good drugs or Merkel is starting to lose her mind. I'll wait for a confirmation or denial from the CDU. Boy, is this election f***ed up.

"Starting"?

Angela Merkel is a disappointment in many ways, but in no sense is she *crazy*, unless your definition of "sane" includes the press releases of Oskar Lafontaine and his merry band of east German marxists.

Anyway, what is the big deal about holding another parliamentary election if a majority is not reached? The British used to run one general election after another, sometimes only weeks apart, until one party/faction gained an upper hand. Yes, the German system is not quite so flexible, but nothing in the Constitution rules it out -- the maximum duration of a term is set to five years, but there is no minimum duration.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In case anyone is interested, 1974 was the last time that happend; Heath lost his majority in the Febuary election (which he had stupidly called to win another mandate just three and a bit years after first becoming PM) resulting in a minority Labour government under Wilson, who called another election in October which he won a narrow majority in.

I can't see any parallels with the current situation in Germany at all

The peak of that sort of thing in the 20th century was in the '20's; 1922 (after the collapse of the Lloyd George government), 1923 (Baldwin tried, and failed, to get a majority for Protectionism. Resulted in the first ever Labour government, albeit a minority on) and 1924 (influenced by a forged letter published in the Daily Mail inferring that Labour had links to the Soviet regime).

The three elections in three years may have done for the Liberals who were pretty much bankrupted as a result.

[2952-0-0]

This will be close, like the New Zealand vote. I predict CSU/CDU and FDP to get more than Red/Green. Whether they can form a coalition remains to be seen.

EDIT: The most disappointing result would be the NPD entering Bundestag no matter who gets to govern.

A reminder that the polls close at 6 PM Berlin time (12 PM on NAEDT).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Looks like the German left is stupidly shooting themselves in the foot, like the Greek left, and of course the American left with the lemmings who followed Nader the fool.

Hopefully they can deny CDU/FDP a majority, and then decide to get their act together. This infighting is ridiculous.

[Platypus]

*holds breath*

I'll be listening to Deautsche Weller tonight...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Anyway, what is the big deal about holding another parliamentary election if a majority is not reached? The British used to run one general election after another, sometimes only weeks apart, until one party/faction gained an upper hand. Yes, the German system is not quite so flexible, but nothing in the Constitution rules it out -- the maximum duration of a term is set to five years, but there is no minimum duration.

Actually, it's still four years. And Germany isn't comparable to the UK to this extent. Because of the experiences with Weimar, early elections are only to be held under extreme circumstances. That's the reason why there was a relatively high threshold (compared to other European countries) set in the constitution for calling early elections.  As a matter of fact, this is only the third time after WWII (the 1972 and 1982 elections being the first two) a election is held before the end of the term. In the UK however, elections are held before the end of the maximum term of five years on a regular basis. So, an early election is a very rare occassion in Germany. Two early elections within a few months would be totally unusual.

And there's another difference to the United Kingdom: In the UK, there are no coalitions, but only one-party governments. Either Labour has a majority or the Tories have a majority. In Germany, the CDU/CSU won't have a majority on its own anyway, no matter how many times we would vote. So, the only question is with whom the CDU/CSU will enter a governing coalition. And you can't simply dissolve the Bundestag and call for early elections again because you don't like the range of potential coalitions partners available.

In the Saxony state election last year and in the Schleswig-Holstein state election this January, CDU and FDP also failed to win a majority together. As a result the CDU entered a coalition with the SPD both times. Would we repeat the election every time CDU/FDP (or SPD/Greens) fail to win a majority, we would certainly have hell of a lot more elections here.

I predict CSU/CDU and FDP to get more than Red/Green.

Now, there's no question about THAT.

EDIT: The most disappointing result would be the NPD entering Bundestag no matter who gets to govern.

I can fully assure you that isn't going to happen. The NPD is polling so low that the party doesn't even appear in the poll results separately, but is included under "Other parties".  This time, the protest votes will go to the Left Party anyway, so there will be only the hard core of the real neo-Nazis left to vote for the NPD.

[minionofmidas]

...but that may be larger than you'd want it to...

Some news from the polling station...
Turnout is okay (good for the left) but not great (good for the right). New citizen (Turkish, Afghan, Russian, you name it) turnout is very high (good for the left; doubly good because there's a theory they're undersampled in the polls) - in the precinct I sat in from 8am to 1pm, safe to say a minority of voters under 50 were ethnic German (on the other hand, that shows young German turnout was very bad - good for the right. The pensioners are voting). No more than a third, I'd say, even. But hey - would you entrust your vote to a polling station manned by a longhaired bearded hippie, a Turk, a lecherous septagenarian and a beautiful 19 year old girl?

[jaichind]

As of 10:33 EST turnout is lower than it was in 2002.  This is bad news for SPD. 

[Umengus]

No majority for CDU-CSU-FDP say first exit-polls (said a reporter of "le monde" on tv5)

[jaichind]

Exit polls N24

SPD 33.5
Left 8.5
FDP 10.5
Greens 8.5
CDU/CSU 36

[jaichind]

Exit poll ARD

SPD 34
CDU/CSU 35.5
Greens 8.5
FDP 10.5
Left 7.5

[jaichind]

Exit poll ZDF

Left 8
Greens 8
FDP 10.5
CDU/CSU 37
SPD 33

[Umengus]

FDP is the big surprise. CDU-CSU too

[skybridge]

Die ersten Prognosen sehen aber gar nicht gut aus

Naja, wir wollen aber noch kein Glas aufmachen

[freek]

FDP is the big surprise. CDU-CSU too

Yeah. The CDU-CSU result is crap. I think a lot of traditional CDU-voters gave their first vote to the CDU-candidate and their second vote to the FDP-list. To show their support of a black-yellow coalition.

[jaichind]

FDP result is a surprise.  Looks like a lot of CDU/CSU supporters voted for them.  Even though Left party did not do as well as expected this election is good news for them.  A CDU/CSU-SPD coalition will leave them as the real opposition.  The can look forward to picking up more protest votes next election.

[Michael Z]

The SPD are at roughly 34% and CDU at 35%... now that's a HUGE surprise. Thing is, who's going to form the next government? CDU and FDP don't have enough combined votes for an absolute majority, the FDP have said they won't enter a coalition with Schroder's SPD and the Green Party, SPD and Left Party hate each other's guts, and even a grand coalition seems unlikely. Quo Vadis?

[CO-OWL]

Well, I'm very surprised and very disappointed

FDP is the big surprise. CDU-CSU too

Yeah. The CDU-CSU result is crap. I think a lot of traditional CDU-voters gave their first vote to the CDU-candidate and their second vote to the FDP-list. To show their support of a black-yellow coalition.

True. They've just shown a poll stating that 41% of FDP voters like the CDU/CSU best.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

What is the Left Party?  Why shouldn't this result mean a SPD/Green/Left coalition?

[ThePrezMex]

I was just reading that they are looking to form the Jamaican Coalition (Black-Yellow-Green).
In that sense, the Green Party would need to recant from their initial opposition to forming a coalition with CDU/CSU

It's surprising that the SPD is getting considerably closer to the Union as the results keep coming.

[Emsworth]

What is the Left Party?  Why shouldn't this result mean a SPD/Green/Left coalition?

The Left Party is basically a communist party, and it has ruled out a coalition with the SDP. IIRC, the Greens have ruled out a coalition as well. Thus, the only possible coalition is SDP/CDU.