Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Missouri

[ElectionsGuy]

Two votes. One for a rating (Safe D, Lean R, Toss-Up, etc.) and one for a prediction of who will win (Clinton, Trump, or Other).

Note: If you think Johnson/Other will win a state, just vote 'Other' and don't vote for a rating.

Update/vote in these threads if you haven't already! There's no time limit and you can still affect the overall result:

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Ratings

Arizona: Lean R --> Toss-Up

Safe Clinton: 126
Likely Clinton: 17
Lean Clinton: 9
Toss-Up: 46
Lean Trump: 16
Likely Trump: 14
Safe Trump: 47

Clinton: 152
Trump: 77
Toss-Up: 46

Predictions

Clinton: 187
Trump: 88

Missouri: Lean R, 50-46 Trump. I would also like to encourage more votes in the Mississippi thread if needed.

[dspNY]

Tilt R, close to true tossup status

Trump 48
Clinton 46
Johnson 5
Stein 1

[Gass3268]

Toss Up, there have been too many close polls to not call it this.

50-47-3 (Trump-Clinton-Others)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I have it as tilt R, but this one is a sleeper

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Lol, Likely R.

Trump 53.5%
Clinton 43.5%
Others 3%

This confidence about MO, given its demos is frankly, silly.

[Lief 🗽]

If Florida is a toss up (lol), then Missouri which is closer should be too.

[Xing]

A year ago, I would've been quick to say Safe R, since it seems like Missouri has trended sharply to the right. However, it's looking like Hillary will win by a decent margin, and Trump might really struggle in the suburbs. If Hillary can really get out the vote in Kansas City and St. Louis, and flip some suburban counties, things could actually get interesting here.

For now, Lean R, Trump wins 51-46.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Contrary to the Atlas position du jour, Hillary is not going to win in a rout, and she would be lucky to win at all, so Missouri is Safe R- nothing to see.

[Gass3268]

Contrary to the Atlas position du jour, Hillary is not going to win in a rout, and she would be lucky to win at all, so Missouri is Safe R- nothing to see.

Ummm, almost every aggregate polling model has the chance of Hillary winning between 90-75%.

[Arbitrage1980]

538.com forecast currently gives Hillary a 34.5% chance of winning Missouri.  It's lean R but definitely not a safe state for Trump. If Hillary wins the popular vote by say 8+ points, she definitely wins GA and AZ and most likely MO. 

Even Obama 2008 lost MO (granted by just 0.13%).  MO is culturally pretty conservative with the exception of STL and Kansas City. And Hillary just doesn't resonate in that state, unlike her husband.

[Xing]

Contrary to the Atlas position du jour, Hillary is not going to win in a rout, and she would be lucky to win at all, so Missouri is Safe R- nothing to see.

Ummm, almost every aggregate polling model has the chance of Hillary winning between 90-75%.

...

...

Says who?

[evergreenarbor]

Lean R.

Trump: 48
Clinton: 44
Johnson: 7
Other: 1

[Erc]

Tossup, but I think Trump ekes it out, like in 2008.

[heatcharger]

When do you plan on making Colorado Likely D in your map?

[Andy Hine]

Tossup; lol at the broseph who said that Missouri was Safe R a few posts above.

[Mehmentum]

Would you look at that, Arizona flipped to a tossup!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC is more likely to flip but with Trump anything can happen.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Tossup. I voted Clinton, but that might have been my optimism speaking. The margin will be less than 2% either way.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Toss up. Hillary may win by a squeaker, probably something like by 0.2%

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Lean R; I'd say anything from D+2 to ~R+8 wouldn't shock me. I do think that the race will be tighter than 2012, though, given Trump's polling weakness with suburban Midwesterners.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Safe R, the state is moving towards becoming another Arkansas, not another NC.

Trump 54
Clinton 43
Other 3

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Toss-Up, Clinton 50-48-2

[Maxwell]

Lean R, Trump wins by at least 4.

[tinman64]

Likely R. Rural vote outpaces KC-St.L. city vote.

Trump 52
Clinton 46
Others 2

[Figueira]

Lean R, emphasis on the Lean.