PA 13

[TeePee4Prez]

Ok, the Bush tax cuts gave me what a night out to dinner.  Ok, they gave your parents probably what half a vacaton to Wildwood.  Yet they gave people that make a lot more than us brand new cars.  Come on.  You will be paying A LOT more for college than I am.  The job market stinks.  You are being very short sighted here.  I should also mention there's what a $7 trilion deficit.  WHo's going to pay for that?  Yeah, inflation has gone up drastically.  Who's getting the interest on this $7 trillion?  NOT US!  If you or your parents knew anything about economic policy, you would not vote Bush or Brown, plain and simple.

First of all it gave us more than a night out at dinner. Second, we don't go to Wildwood I think that you have to realize that some of us middle class Americans did benefit from these tax cuts. Some of us Americans like to get money back from the government. And you have to realize some other things too... 1) Not everyone in NE Philly is the way you think they are. Not all Republicans are Archie Bunker Republicans and the majority of this district isn't full of Joe Hoeffel Dems. Secondly, you have to realize people disagree with you. You said my family must be "warped" and "blind, deaf and dumb." Don't personally attack me or my family, Handzus. I don't care how much you disagree with what me and my family believe, those comments were outrageous.

Of course most people got a tax break.  Difference is who and how much.  Some people got NONE.  Most of those were in the lower-middle brackets.  The sad thing is expenditures had to be cut, but unfortunately the important ones such as education and health care did meanwhile the military went up astronomically.  This is coupled with a $7 trillion deficit.  Like I said who's gonna pay for it?  Money certainly doesn't grow on trees.  And I am not attacking your family Keystone.  I am attacking their thoughts if what you are telling me is true.  I do not know them if I've seen them on the street.  I feel you and them are being very short sighted.  You said you and your family is backing Bush and Brown fully.  I was bringing your family up in a theoretical manner since they come from a middle class rowhome.  It's not personal man.  I do realize not all of PA-13 are Joe Hoeffel Dems or Archie Bunker Republicans.  The point I'm trying to make though is there ARE a lot of one or two issue RINOs in the Northeast though those being abortion and having this notion that the Republicans are somehow going to save Philadelphia.  On the latter, check out the Far Northeast Young Republicans website.  It says it there point blank.  

[Keystone Phil]

Ok, the Bush tax cuts gave me what a night out to dinner.  Ok, they gave your parents probably what half a vacaton to Wildwood.  Yet they gave people that make a lot more than us brand new cars.  Come on.  You will be paying A LOT more for college than I am.  The job market stinks.  You are being very short sighted here.  I should also mention there's what a $7 trilion deficit.  WHo's going to pay for that?  Yeah, inflation has gone up drastically.  Who's getting the interest on this $7 trillion?  NOT US!  If you or your parents knew anything about economic policy, you would not vote Bush or Brown, plain and simple.

First of all it gave us more than a night out at dinner. Second, we don't go to Wildwood I think that you have to realize that some of us middle class Americans did benefit from these tax cuts. Some of us Americans like to get money back from the government. And you have to realize some other things too... 1) Not everyone in NE Philly is the way you think they are. Not all Republicans are Archie Bunker Republicans and the majority of this district isn't full of Joe Hoeffel Dems. Secondly, you have to realize people disagree with you. You said my family must be "warped" and "blind, deaf and dumb." Don't personally attack me or my family, Handzus. I don't care how much you disagree with what me and my family believe, those comments were outrageous.

 

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You weren't attacking them? You weren't making it personal when you said we are "warped" and we are "deaf, dumb and blind" because we disagree with you. Give me a break. If you don't like that there is a middle class family in Northeast Philadelphia who supports Bush and the tax cuts and Melissa Brown, that's just too bad. You might not see as many Bush supporters but you're going to see more and more Brown yard signs pop up and more people supporting the tax cuts because it does help them (and no it's not just a night out at dinner or a vacation though I'd take that anyday over a tax hike.)

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The Republicans would save this city if people actually voted them in. Look what they did in 2003. The people of this city rejected someone who would have really turned this city around because they believed John Street and his attempts to connect Katz and the City Hall bugging. What an embarressment that he was re-elected by 16 points.

[TeePee4Prez]

Melissa Brown yard signs were only from committeepeople.  The reason nayone else would have one is because of the Section 8, not the tax cuts.  I'll admit there will be SOME Kerry/Brown crossovers, but it will be because of that issue.  

[Keystone Phil]

Melissa Brown yard signs were only from committeepeople.  The reason nayone else would have one is because of the Section 8, not the tax cuts.  I'll admit there will be SOME Kerry/Brown crossovers, but it will be because of that issue.  

Handzus, I am saying that you will start seeing more and more of them when October and November role around. And I know for a fact that not every house that has a sign is the house of a committeeperson. (And I'm not saying that they will put them up because of tax cuts but they'll be supporting someone who supports the tax cuts.)

[TeePee4Prez]

Melissa Brown yard signs were only from committeepeople.  The reason nayone else would have one is because of the Section 8, not the tax cuts.  I'll admit there will be SOME Kerry/Brown crossovers, but it will be because of that issue.  

Handzus, I am saying that you will start seeing more and more of them when October and November role around. And I know for a fact that not every house that has a sign is the house of a committeeperson. (And I'm not saying that they will put them up because of tax cuts but they'll be supporting someone who supports the tax cuts.)

Heh, then why will most be supporting Kerry?  We're not going to see as many Melissa Brown signs as Sam Katz... nowhere NEAR that number.  You will be seeing equally as many Schwartz signs as well.  There are even a good number of Republicans that are fishy about the tax cuts as well.  Her pinnacle issue is Section 8 and you know it.  This is a battleground district.  There are many people disenchanted with Bush and Brown will struggle with him.  If I recall, there were a lot of Torsella lawn signs as well.  I also noticed a lot of Schwartz signs in the heavily Jewish neighborhoods.  Taubenberger had Fox Chase pretty strong as well, but naturally they'd go Brown.  There were a lot of Schwartz signs in the suburbs as well as Bard.  

Funny I noticed more Toomey signs than Specter in the Northeast, but where it counted, Specter slaughtered him at least here.  My point, lawn signs are for the desperate.  These people know their neighbors will be questioning Brown along with Bush.  I'm sure many cops will go Brown as they probably did in 2002.  My other point, there was no widespread disenchantment with the Bush Administration in 2002 as there is now and Northeast Philadelphia is no exception.  Bush is getting his @ss handed to him and it will have an effect on Brown no doubt.  Rising health care costs and the fear of job losses will far outweigh the relative pettiness of Section 8.  One advantage for Brown is she had a previous run in 2002, but I do not see her expanding on Hoeffel voters.  This may also serve as a disadvantage because the Dems know her playbook and they have the finances to destroy it unlike other parts of the country where the Republicans have massive cash advantages.  Also note the differences between Katz's 1999 performance and Katz 2003.  Katz was poised to win in 2003 until Ashcroft entered with a probe.  Mind you it didn't affect my vote, but it did to many others and Katz suffered heavily.  He did not have convincing advantages in the Northeast and yes, a lot of Katz supporters are Democrats who will easily switch back to Kerry/Schwartz with Specter cutting in a little more so.  The logisitcs of this do not favor Brown.  Brown's ONLY avenue is Section 8 and she'll have to be stellar on that without ebing too offensive.  She's walking a tightrope and Schwartz's cash will answer her very quickly.            

[TeePee4Prez]

Oh and btw, start worrying about PA-8.  DSCC will be funneling Schrader $$$ and Fitzpatrick was not the best candidate for the GOP.  PA-13 is a loss for the GOP.  The FOP will not carry her over the finish line.

[Keystone Phil]

Oh and btw, start worrying about PA-8.  DSCC will be funneling Schrader $$$ and Fitzpatrick was not the best candidate for the GOP.  PA-13 is a loss for the GOP.  The FOP will not carry her over the finish line.

Right but if the FOP endorsed Schwartz it would have been "Game over! Schwartz wins!" Give me a break. And I won't be worrying about PA 8 anytime soon.

[Keystone Phil]

Melissa Brown yard signs were only from committeepeople.  The reason nayone else would have one is because of the Section 8, not the tax cuts.  I'll admit there will be SOME Kerry/Brown crossovers, but it will be because of that issue.  

Handzus, I am saying that you will start seeing more and more of them when October and November role around. And I know for a fact that not every house that has a sign is the house of a committeeperson. (And I'm not saying that they will put them up because of tax cuts but they'll be supporting someone who supports the tax cuts.)

  My point, lawn signs are for the desperate.  

That is hysterical. Read over what you just said. Lawn signs are for the desperate. Well correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't Schwartz the one with thousands of signs up and down the Boulevard, Grant Avenue and other major roads? And I'm serious when I say thousands. Is she desperate? I guess so. And especially because she is not well known here. Torsella was more well known in the NE during the primary and Brown is well known now. So I guess we'll see thousands of those signs again. Another sign that signs are for the desperate.

[TeePee4Prez]

Oh and btw, start worrying about PA-8.  DSCC will be funneling Schrader $$$ and Fitzpatrick was not the best candidate for the GOP.  PA-13 is a loss for the GOP.  The FOP will not carry her over the finish line.

Right but if the FOP endorsed Schwartz it would have been "Game over! Schwartz wins!" Give me a break. And I won't be worrying about PA 8 anytime soon.

There's no reason to think "Game Over! Brown wins!" either.  Brown has more hurdles to clear with regards to Bush than Schwartz does with Kerry.

[Keystone Phil]

Oh and btw, start worrying about PA-8.  DSCC will be funneling Schrader $$$ and Fitzpatrick was not the best candidate for the GOP.  PA-13 is a loss for the GOP.  The FOP will not carry her over the finish line.

Right but if the FOP endorsed Schwartz it would have been "Game over! Schwartz wins!" Give me a break. And I won't be worrying about PA 8 anytime soon.

There's no reason to think "Game Over! Brown wins!" either.  Brown has more hurdles to clear with regards to Bush than Schwartz does with Kerry.

If Schwartz brings up Bush, maybe Brown will bring up Street. Who knows? If that happens, I say Schwartz will has more hurdles.

[TeePee4Prez]

Bush is a bigger hurdle considering this is a FEDERAL election!  

[Keystone Phil]

Bush is a bigger hurdle considering this is a FEDERAL election!  

The people of this district split their ticket often. If Schwartz's message is to tie Brown to Bush believe me it won't work. Brown focuses on the issues that matter. That is why she receieved 47% (very good showing for someone that is challenging an incumbent like Hoeffel) last time and that is why she'll win this time.

[TeePee4Prez]

I do not think Schwartz will bring Bush into the equation much.  Will she bring up the issues that matter? Absolutely.  Does this tie into Bush? YES.  Brown ties in with the Bush ageneda 100X as much as Schwartz and John Street.  You can not make that argument with John Street.  It's null and void.

[Keystone Phil]

I do not think Schwartz will bring Bush into the equation much.  Will she bring up the issues that matter? Absolutely.  Does this tie into Bush? YES.  Brown ties in with the Bush ageneda 100X as much as Schwartz and John Street.  You can not make that argument with John Street.  It's null and void.

If Schwartz tries to tie Brown to the Bush agenda, Brown can easily tie Schwartz to Street's agenda and especially Section 8. What is more unpopular here: Section 8 or the tax cuts? And remember Brown isn't just talking about Section 8. As Schwartz continues to tie Brown to Bush on tax cuts, Brown will be discussing all kinds of issues (I know you refuse to accept that Brown is discussing other issues but its the truth) and the voters want someone who offers solutions to problems rather than someone who wants to play the connect Melissa Brown to so and so game.

[TeePee4Prez]

Allyson Schwartz is doing more than that trust me.  She founded CHIP in PA and has many solutions for issues such as a Patient's Bill of Rights and Lessening Dependency on foreign oil.  She actually has a small library of postion papers on all kinds of issues.  What does Brown have?  A few paragraphs on the major issues, but has time for Section 8 doesn't she.  

[Keystone Phil]

Allyson Schwartz is doing more than that trust me.  She founded CHIP in PA and has many solutions for issues such as a Patient's Bill of Rights and Lessening Dependency on foreign oil.  She actually has a small library of postion papers on all kinds of issues.  What does Brown have?  A few paragraphs on the major issues, but has time for Section 8 doesn't she.  

Sorry that Brown didn't write you a book on her positions, Handzus. She gets to the point. She says what she wants to do in the House and has been talking to the voters about issues they care about unlike Schwartz who hasn't really addressed one of the main issues ( Section 8 ). Face it, Handzus. Whether you want it to be or not, Section 8 is a major issue here. There's no way around it.

[TeePee4Prez]

Allyson Schwartz is doing more than that trust me.  She founded CHIP in PA and has many solutions for issues such as a Patient's Bill of Rights and Lessening Dependency on foreign oil.  She actually has a small library of postion papers on all kinds of issues.  What does Brown have?  A few paragraphs on the major issues, but has time for Section 8 doesn't she.  

Sorry that Brown didn't write you a book on her positions, Handzus. She gets to the point. She says what she wants to do in the House and has been talking to the voters about issues they care about unlike Schwartz who hasn't really addressed one of the main issues ( Section 8 ). Face it, Handzus. Whether you want it to be or not, Section 8 is a major issue here. There's no way around it.

Well maybe I want someone with a little more complex thought.  it's blantently obvious she's baiting uneducated whtie voters into her.  Montgomery County is going to be somewhat brutal to her.  

[Keystone Phil]

Allyson Schwartz is doing more than that trust me.  She founded CHIP in PA and has many solutions for issues such as a Patient's Bill of Rights and Lessening Dependency on foreign oil.  She actually has a small library of postion papers on all kinds of issues.  What does Brown have?  A few paragraphs on the major issues, but has time for Section 8 doesn't she.  

Sorry that Brown didn't write you a book on her positions, Handzus. She gets to the point. She says what she wants to do in the House and has been talking to the voters about issues they care about unlike Schwartz who hasn't really addressed one of the main issues ( Section 8 ). Face it, Handzus. Whether you want it to be or not, Section 8 is a major issue here. There's no way around it.

 it's blantently obvious she's baiting uneducated whtie voters into her.  

Give it up, Handzus. Really...this arguement that you throw out every single time Section 8 is brought up is getting very old.

[Keystone Phil]

Allyson Schwartz is doing more than that trust me.  She founded CHIP in PA and has many solutions for issues such as a Patient's Bill of Rights and Lessening Dependency on foreign oil.  She actually has a small library of postion papers on all kinds of issues.  What does Brown have?  A few paragraphs on the major issues, but has time for Section 8 doesn't she.  

Sorry that Brown didn't write you a book on her positions, Handzus. She gets to the point. She says what she wants to do in the House and has been talking to the voters about issues they care about unlike Schwartz who hasn't really addressed one of the main issues ( Section 8 ). Face it, Handzus. Whether you want it to be or not, Section 8 is a major issue here. There's no way around it.

Well maybe I want someone with a little more complex thought.  

She doesn't have complex thought, Handzus? I want you to go here http://www.melissabrownforcongress.com/aboutmelissa.htm read up on all she has achieved and then tell me she doesn't have enough complex thought for you.

[TeePee4Prez]

I'm not denying her achievements educationally, but she must think I'm stupid enough to vote for her and that's not going to happen.  She is an insult to mine and the rest of the Northeast's intelligence.  Unfortunately many will fall into her trap and screw them over by not giving a damn.  She cares about one thing only, denying patient's rights to sue and tax cuts for the rich, not the Northeast.  She is a debutante snake and deserves my size 10 1/2 shoe up her @ss.

[Keystone Phil]

She is a debutante snake and deserves my size 10 1/2 shoe up her @ss.

You need to stop and look at what you are saying. Your comments are have gotten so ridiculous. You'd never think that you actually considered voting for her.

[TeePee4Prez]

She is a debutante snake and deserves my size 10 1/2 shoe up her @ss.

You need to stop and look at what you are saying. Your comments are have gotten so ridiculous. You'd never think that you actually considered voting for her.

Boo hiss!  Are you angry at the fact I'm not a neo-conservative like you that doesn't see everything the great white Catholic Northeast Philadelphia way I'm supposed to.  

[Keystone Phil]

She is a debutante snake and deserves my size 10 1/2 shoe up her @ss.

You need to stop and look at what you are saying. Your comments are have gotten so ridiculous. You'd never think that you actually considered voting for her.

Boo hiss!  Are you angry at the fact I'm not a neo-conservative like you that doesn't see everything the great white Catholic Northeast Philadelphia way I'm supposed to.  

Handzus, I could honestly care less what you believe in. And I don't believe there is a  "great white Catholic Northeast Philadelphia" way of thinking. You really need to get that thought out of your head. You're also a very angry person, Handzus. You get very personal with your attacks on elected officials and candidates for office. You should really calm down.

By the way, Inside Politics on CNN is in Philadelphia today. Tune in. They might bring up PA 13.

[jdscott]

I think Melissa ran a very good campaign last time in the Northeast.   Combinded with a strong year nationally for Reps. (I know Rendell won but he had no coatails) she almost beat Hoeffel who was sort of an incumbent (although 2/3s of the people in the NE probably wanted to vote for Borksi).

You have to admit that section 8 turned the election into a local election where many voters in the NE who traditionally go Democratic at least in national elections decided to pull the lever for Brown even when voting for Rendell.   As far as I know going into the last weekend the Rendell campaign was worried Hoeffel was pulling them down in the NE.

And Brown almost pulled it off.  Michael Smerconsih might have decided the race coming out against Brown at the very end denouncing her for race baiting.

However, rematches are a tall order.  And Melissa has tremendous odds in front of her.

Before anything else Hoeffel was slow to respond to the sec. 8 issue.   I doubt Allyson will be so slow to whatever attacks are thrown her way.

Also, I doubt this will be a complete replay of the Street-Katz race anyway.   Unless Melissa can make into a local election it will be about national issues more than local ones.

At the same time I do think Specter will fair well in the NE.  I don't have enough of a handle on the race to know if he will actually beat Hoeffel in all of those wards but he will certainly carry a lot of divisions.   But you can not for one moment compare Brown to Specter.  Specter has been around in Philly politics a long time he was DA and his wife was on city council.  People have long memories for guys like Arlen.

Just some general thoughts

First off in the NE Bush will be lucky to win 25 divisions.  He only won 31 divisions city wide last time, although most were in the NE (I am not sure but a couple were probably in the 8th CD).  So, from the outset the top of the ticket will be weighing her down.   This is the case even in wards, like the 45th, where there is residual anger by the committeepeople at the fact Allyson won the primary.  (although one must admit committeepeople might have a lot of sway when in a primary for common pleas court but not so much in a presidential election year)

Second parts of the NE are actually going to be behind Allyson.  Places like the 58th and the 56th will be supportive.   As far as I remember the Stacks were behind Allyson in the primary and I would be shocked if local 98 isn't at least a bit busy on election day in the 56th.

Third the inner Montco part of the district is far from a sure thing for Melissa either.   Abington/Jenkintown is probably out of her reach at the outset.   She will be able to cut her losses in Springfield, b/c its her hometown but Kerry is going smoke Bush there same thing in Whitemarsh (Gore won Springfield by 16 points and Whitemarsh by 13 points).  The part of UD in the 13th and the Morelands will go for Kerry but Brown should hold even in those areas with Schwartz and run ahead of Bush.

Fourth the outer part of the Montco district may be hard for her as well but for different reasons.   They like'em real conservative in Lower Salford and they don't like Specter. (one of the reasons Hoeffel upset Fox in thier 98 rematch is because that part of Montgomery county did not turn out when pro-choice Specter/Ridge lead the Rep ticket).   Brown needs the Presidential race to stay tight in PA so the Bush campaign is out there in exurbs turning out voters.  And if those Republicans come out they come out they are defintely not voting for Allyson.


In the end I don't want to rain on anyone's parade but unless the dynamics of the national race change I don't think Brown can pull this off.   I don't think she can survive more than a 10 point Kerry win in the district.   (just to let you know Gore won all of Montco by 9 and half points last time and the old 13th probably by over 10, Greenleaf got smoked by Hoeffel that year)

I would like to see if anyone has a different interpretation of the numbers and the politics at play.

[Keystone Phil]

Hey jdscott, welcome to the forum. We may disagree on how this election turns out but it seems like you are willing to have a fair and civilized debate (which, if you look through the thread, you can tell hasn't always been the case here.) Oh and be ready for some big time debates between myself and Handzus26. The arguements are pretty strong since we respresent different beliefs and different candidates in this PA 13 race.

Oh and by the way, I have to disagree with you strongly in one thing you said. I don't care what Smerconish says, Melissa Brown was not and still is not making this into an issue of race.