Ontario 2018 election

[PeteB]

So, if the Liberal vote collapses totally, PCs can get an extra 6 seats here.  Add another 4-5 Scarborough seats and Etobicoke North, and they have a majority.

Unless somehow a 1990-style wave delivers about a dozen or so seats in rural and rurban Ontario to the NDP offsets that.

With the current PC strength, I doubt NDP can win any purely rural PC-held ridings.  What the NDP could viably do is win over from the smaller PC-held urban/suburban ridings that have eluded them (places like Peterborough, Kitchener Centre, Kitchener South-Hespeler, Cambridge, Sarnia Lambton, Brantford, Chatham Kent Leamington, etc.).  However that still leaves the PCs with a solid 50+ seats (assuming the aforementioned Liberal collapse in TO), before all of the TCTCs are considered.  As I said, NDP will need to go 5-6% ahead of PC AND not have any screw-ups, in order to have a chance of a majority or even a minority government. 

Color me sceptical but I simply don't believe that the NDP is disciplined enough to do this.  A few moments ago Andrea Horwath was on TV, railing against her own candidates for not following the party line.  She specifically singled out Joel Harden (Ottawa Centre) who was apparently having his "John Tory" moment and advocating for the integration of Catholic and public school boards!?!

[lilTommy]

I had done a transposition of the mayoral vote a while ago, but never posted it. King of Kensington keeps mentioning Tory Liberal seats, so here are the top John Tory ridings:

1) Don Valley West: 68%
2) Eglinton-Lawrence: 60%
3) Toronto-St. Paul's: 57%
4) Spadina-Fort York: 49%
5) University-Rosedale: 49%
6) Willowdale: 48%
7) Etobicoke-Lakeshore: 47%
8 ) Beaches-East York: 46%
9) Don Valley East: 45%
10) Toronto Centre: 44%
11) Etobicoke Centre: 44%
12) Parkdale-High Park 44%
13) Don Valley North: 43%
14) Toronto-Danforth: 42%

Out of those:

Safe NDP:
Parkdale-High Park
Toronto-Danforth

Safe (as much as they can be) Liberal:
Don Valley West
Toronto-St. Paul's
Spadina-Fort York
University-Rosedale
Toronto Centre

TCTC (Liberal/PC)
Willowdale
Eglinton-Lawrence
Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Don Valley East
Etobicoke Centre
Don Valley North

TCTC (Liberal/NDP) :
Beaches-East York


So, if the Liberal vote collapses totally, PCs can get an extra 6 seats here.  Add another 4-5 Scarborough seats and Etobicoke North, and they have a majority.

I would classify the below as TCTC OLP/NDP, Lean-NDP
Spadina-Fort York
University-Rosedale
Toronto Centre

These are swing progressive ridings, not solid Liberal as detailed on previous pages. The only Solid Liberal area is Rosedale, which represents probably less then 40% of University-Rosedale.

My call for OLP seats:
Don Valley West
Toronto-St. Paul's
Don Valley North
Eglinton-Lawrence
Scarborough-Guildwood
... my TCTC is Willowdale.

[mileslunn]

I've found once a wave starts not much one can do to stop it, the question comes more where it crests so as much as I abhor the idea of an NDP government, I think that is the most likely outcome.  I don't think it will be a blowout either way.  I suspect the difference between the two parties unless polls are massively wrong or something dramatic happens will be fewer than 20 seats.

[PeteB]

I had done a transposition of the mayoral vote a while ago, but never posted it. King of Kensington keeps mentioning Tory Liberal seats, so here are the top John Tory ridings:

1) Don Valley West: 68%
2) Eglinton-Lawrence: 60%
3) Toronto-St. Paul's: 57%
4) Spadina-Fort York: 49%
5) University-Rosedale: 49%
6) Willowdale: 48%
7) Etobicoke-Lakeshore: 47%
8 ) Beaches-East York: 46%
9) Don Valley East: 45%
10) Toronto Centre: 44%
11) Etobicoke Centre: 44%
12) Parkdale-High Park 44%
13) Don Valley North: 43%
14) Toronto-Danforth: 42%

Out of those:

Safe NDP:
Parkdale-High Park
Toronto-Danforth

Safe (as much as they can be) Liberal:
Don Valley West
Toronto-St. Paul's
Spadina-Fort York
University-Rosedale
Toronto Centre

TCTC (Liberal/PC)
Willowdale
Eglinton-Lawrence
Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Don Valley East
Etobicoke Centre
Don Valley North

TCTC (Liberal/NDP) :
Beaches-East York


So, if the Liberal vote collapses totally, PCs can get an extra 6 seats here.  Add another 4-5 Scarborough seats and Etobicoke North, and they have a majority.

I would classify the below as TCTC OLP/NDP, Lean-NDP
Spadina-Fort York
University-Rosedale
Toronto Centre

These are swing progressive ridings, not solid Liberal as detailed on previous pages. The only Solid Liberal area is Rosedale, which represents probably less then 40% of University-Rosedale.

My call for OLP seats:
Don Valley West
Toronto-St. Paul's
Don Valley North
Eglinton-Lawrence
Scarborough-Guildwood
... my TCTC is Willowdale.

The problem with your logic is that if the Liberals manage to hold on to a seat like Don Valley North (which they won with a 20 point difference), they should  much more easily hold on to Toronto Centre, which they won with 40 points.  There is no logical reason for voters to abandon the Liberals for the NDP in the inner-core ridings and NOT abandon them for the PCs in places like Don Valley North, Willowdale or even Don Valley West. As @mileslunn said, a wave is a wave.

[Hatman 🍁]

I had done a transposition of the mayoral vote a while ago, but never posted it. King of Kensington keeps mentioning Tory Liberal seats, so here are the top John Tory ridings:

1) Don Valley West: 68%
2) Eglinton-Lawrence: 60%
3) Toronto-St. Paul's: 57%
4) Spadina-Fort York: 49%
5) University-Rosedale: 49%
6) Willowdale: 48%
7) Etobicoke-Lakeshore: 47%
8 ) Beaches-East York: 46%
9) Don Valley East: 45%
10) Toronto Centre: 44%
11) Etobicoke Centre: 44%
12) Parkdale-High Park 44%
13) Don Valley North: 43%
14) Toronto-Danforth: 42%

Out of those:

Safe NDP:
Parkdale-High Park
Toronto-Danforth

Safe (as much as they can be) Liberal:
Don Valley West
Toronto-St. Paul's
Spadina-Fort York
University-Rosedale
Toronto Centre

TCTC (Liberal/PC)
Willowdale
Eglinton-Lawrence
Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Don Valley East
Etobicoke Centre
Don Valley North

TCTC (Liberal/NDP) :
Beaches-East York


So, if the Liberal vote collapses totally, PCs can get an extra 6 seats here.  Add another 4-5 Scarborough seats and Etobicoke North, and they have a majority.

I would classify the below as TCTC OLP/NDP, Lean-NDP
Spadina-Fort York
University-Rosedale
Toronto Centre

These are swing progressive ridings, not solid Liberal as detailed on previous pages. The only Solid Liberal area is Rosedale, which represents probably less then 40% of University-Rosedale.

My call for OLP seats:
Don Valley West
Toronto-St. Paul's
Don Valley North
Eglinton-Lawrence
Scarborough-Guildwood
... my TCTC is Willowdale.

The problem with your logic is that if the Liberals manage to hold on to a seat like Don Valley North (which they won with a 20 point difference), they should  much more easily hold on to Toronto Centre, which they won with 40 points.  There is no logical reason for voters to abandon the Liberals for the NDP in the inner-core ridings and NOT abandon them for the PCs in places like Don Valley North, Willowdale or even Don Valley West. As @mileslunn said, a wave is a wave.

I'd advise you to look at the 2011 transposition of federal results in Downtown Toronto to see what an 'orange wave' looked like. The NDP almost won Toronto Centre on its current boundaries. And that was only with 26% of the province-wide vote. And they don't have an incumbent either.

Anyway, since our client leaked it, here are the results from our poll:

https://twitter.com/russianbot3001/status/999754392554225669

[PeteB]

I had done a transposition of the mayoral vote a while ago, but never posted it. King of Kensington keeps mentioning Tory Liberal seats, so here are the top John Tory ridings:

1) Don Valley West: 68%
2) Eglinton-Lawrence: 60%
3) Toronto-St. Paul's: 57%
4) Spadina-Fort York: 49%
5) University-Rosedale: 49%
6) Willowdale: 48%
7) Etobicoke-Lakeshore: 47%
8 ) Beaches-East York: 46%
9) Don Valley East: 45%
10) Toronto Centre: 44%
11) Etobicoke Centre: 44%
12) Parkdale-High Park 44%
13) Don Valley North: 43%
14) Toronto-Danforth: 42%

Out of those:

Safe NDP:
Parkdale-High Park
Toronto-Danforth

Safe (as much as they can be) Liberal:
Don Valley West
Toronto-St. Paul's
Spadina-Fort York
University-Rosedale
Toronto Centre

TCTC (Liberal/PC)
Willowdale
Eglinton-Lawrence
Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Don Valley East
Etobicoke Centre
Don Valley North

TCTC (Liberal/NDP) :
Beaches-East York


So, if the Liberal vote collapses totally, PCs can get an extra 6 seats here.  Add another 4-5 Scarborough seats and Etobicoke North, and they have a majority.

I would classify the below as TCTC OLP/NDP, Lean-NDP
Spadina-Fort York
University-Rosedale
Toronto Centre

These are swing progressive ridings, not solid Liberal as detailed on previous pages. The only Solid Liberal area is Rosedale, which represents probably less then 40% of University-Rosedale.

My call for OLP seats:
Don Valley West
Toronto-St. Paul's
Don Valley North
Eglinton-Lawrence
Scarborough-Guildwood
... my TCTC is Willowdale.

The problem with your logic is that if the Liberals manage to hold on to a seat like Don Valley North (which they won with a 20 point difference), they should  much more easily hold on to Toronto Centre, which they won with 40 points.  There is no logical reason for voters to abandon the Liberals for the NDP in the inner-core ridings and NOT abandon them for the PCs in places like Don Valley North, Willowdale or even Don Valley West. As @mileslunn said, a wave is a wave.

I'd advise you to look at the 2011 transposition of federal results in Downtown Toronto to see what an 'orange wave' looked like. The NDP almost won Toronto Centre on its current boundaries. And that was only with 26% of the province-wide vote. And they don't have an incumbent either.

Anyway, since our client leaked it, here are the results from our poll:

https://twitter.com/russianbot3001/status/999754392554225669

Very VERY interesting poll (for those who have not looked showing seat projections as PC-66, NDP - 52 and Lib. - 6). I think that we are essentially saying the same thing - as things stand now PC are about to form a slim majority government. Of course things are too volatile to draw any firm conclusions.

What I am also saying is that a total Liberal collapse would benefit PCs more than NDP! Btw, I never implied that NDP could not win in places like Toronto Centre. With a total Liberal collapse, they absolutely could and may well do so. However, if they do, and if the PCs don't have their own implosion, the Liberals will also lose the outer TO ridings to the PCs!

[King of Kensington]

[With the current PC strength, I doubt NDP can win any purely rural PC-held ridings.  What the NDP could viably do is win over from the smaller PC-held urban/suburban ridings that have eluded them (places like Peterborough, Kitchener Centre, Kitchener South-Hespeler, Cambridge, Sarnia Lambton, Brantford, Chatham Kent Leamington, etc.).  However that still leaves the PCs with a solid 50+ seats (assuming the aforementioned Liberal collapse in TO), before all of the TCTCs are considered.  As I said, NDP will need to go 5-6% ahead of PC AND not have any screw-ups, in order to have a chance of a majority or even a minority government.

Yeah, it's a real stretch to hope these types of seats will put the NDP ahead over the PCs if the PCs are making big gains in the GTA.  Many of the seats you listed above they'd be taking from the Liberals and not the PCs.  

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Can't disagree with what Harden says there.

[King of Kensington]

I've found once a wave starts not much one can do to stop it, the question comes more where it crests so as much as I abhor the idea of an NDP government, I think that is the most likely outcome.  I don't think it will be a blowout either way.  I suspect the difference between the two parties unless polls are massively wrong or something dramatic happens will be fewer than 20 seats.

Unless they're able to concentrate themselves in the "higher professional" constituency like the LibDems have recently, as Filuwaúrdjan has mentioned.  But I don't know if the "too educated to vote Conservative, too bourgeois to vote NDP" vote is enough to keep the Liberals in any riding except St. Paul's.

[PeteB]

[With the current PC strength, I doubt NDP can win any purely rural PC-held ridings.  What the NDP could viably do is win over from the smaller PC-held urban/suburban ridings that have eluded them (places like Peterborough, Kitchener Centre, Kitchener South-Hespeler, Cambridge, Sarnia Lambton, Brantford, Chatham Kent Leamington, etc.).  However that still leaves the PCs with a solid 50+ seats (assuming the aforementioned Liberal collapse in TO), before all of the TCTCs are considered.  As I said, NDP will need to go 5-6% ahead of PC AND not have any screw-ups, in order to have a chance of a majority or even a minority government.

Yeah, it's a real stretch to hope these types of seats will put the NDP ahead over the PCs if the PCs are making big gains in the GTA.  Many of the seats you listed above they'd be taking from the Liberals and not the PCs.  

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Can't disagree with what Harden says there.

Harden may well be right. In fact some would argue that John Tory may have been totally right in his stance on religious schools. But this is simply a point you do NOT bring up 13 days before polling day, in an election where you have a very reasonable chance of winning.

As a result, Andrea Horwath will now have to field numerous questions and provide explanations for this, instead of promoting her platform. That is the lack of discipline that I think will stop the NDP from going all the way (unless of course Doug Ford implodes).

[MaxQue]

To close the 1990 Family Coalition/Confederation of Regions point, here's results on combined PC/COR/FCP votes.

PC gain from NDP
Hastings-Peterborough
Frontenac-Addington
Prince Edward-Lennox-South Hastings
Peterborough
Durham East
Durham-York
Halton North
Huron
Oxford
Middlesex
Lambton

PC gain from Lab
Quinte
Northumberland
Brampton South

Which gives: NDP 64, Lib 33, PC 33 (which is not a majority (but barely), but assuming 100% of both COR and FCP would transfer isn't realistic).

[RogueBeaver]

EKOS showing a 10% Dipper lead right now.

[ON Progressive]

It grinds my gears that every single Canadian poll uses decimals when it is impossible to get accuracy down to the tenth of a percent in a poll. Can anyone explain why Canadian polling companies do this?

[DC Al Fine]

It grinds my gears that every single Canadian poll uses decimals when it is impossible to get accuracy down to the tenth of a percent in a poll. Can anyone explain why Canadian polling companies do this?

Because it gives the illusion of precision.

[136or142]

It grinds my gears that every single Canadian poll uses decimals when it is impossible to get accuracy down to the tenth of a percent in a poll. Can anyone explain why Canadian polling companies do this?

To annoy you?

[PeteB]

It grinds my gears that every single Canadian poll uses decimals when it is impossible to get accuracy down to the tenth of a percent in a poll. Can anyone explain why Canadian polling companies do this?

To annoy you?

Pretty sure this is 99.9% correct

[mileslunn]

Quito Maggi from Mainstreet tweeted despite close numbers, the firm has 67 seats PC, 47 seats NDP, 7 seats Liberals, and 1 seat Greens.  Likewise Advanced Symbolics which is an AI firm that correctly predicted Brexit and Trump's win has popular vote at 37.2% PC, 36.5% NDP, and 21.4% Liberal while seat count at 73 PC, 50 NDP, 1 Liberal and due to the NDP running up the margins that is why PCs would still win a majority.  However there are 14 seats the NDP can pick up but they have to take from Tory voters as taking 5% of current Tory voters would do the trick of 65 NDP to 57 PC while 5% from Liberals would not being 68 PC to 56 NDP.  Off course things can and will change before election date, but I wonder if Doug Ford will like Trump and like in the leadership race lose the popular vote but still win the election.  If that happens I think that will make the NDP argument for changing the electoral system that much stronger when they do form government.

[136or142]

Quito Maggi from Mainstreet tweeted despite close numbers, the firm has 67 seats PC, 47 seats NDP, 7 seats Liberals, and 1 seat Greens.  Likewise Advanced Symbolics which is an AI firm that correctly predicted Brexit and Trump's win has popular vote at 37.2% PC, 36.5% NDP, and 21.4% Liberal while seat count at 73 PC, 50 NDP, 1 Liberal and due to the NDP running up the margins that is why PCs would still win a majority.  However there are 14 seats the NDP can pick up but they have to take from Tory voters as taking 5% of current Tory voters would do the trick of 65 NDP to 57 PC while 5% from Liberals would not being 68 PC to 56 NDP.  Off course things can and will change before election date, but I wonder if Doug Ford will like Trump and like in the leadership race lose the popular vote but still win the election.  If that happens I think that will make the NDP argument for changing the electoral system that much stronger when they do form government.

1 Liberal ?  !!!!!

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Quito Maggi from Mainstreet tweeted despite close numbers, the firm has 67 seats PC, 47 seats NDP, 7 seats Liberals, and 1 seat Greens.  Likewise Advanced Symbolics which is an AI firm that correctly predicted Brexit and Trump's win has popular vote at 37.2% PC, 36.5% NDP, and 21.4% Liberal while seat count at 73 PC, 50 NDP, 1 Liberal and due to the NDP running up the margins that is why PCs would still win a majority.  However there are 14 seats the NDP can pick up but they have to take from Tory voters as taking 5% of current Tory voters would do the trick of 65 NDP to 57 PC while 5% from Liberals would not being 68 PC to 56 NDP.  Off course things can and will change before election date, but I wonder if Doug Ford will like Trump and like in the leadership race lose the popular vote but still win the election.  If that happens I think that will make the NDP argument for changing the electoral system that much stronger when they do form government.

1 Liberal ?  !!!!!

No he said 7 liberals and one Green Party member.

[136or142]

Quito Maggi from Mainstreet tweeted despite close numbers, the firm has 67 seats PC, 47 seats NDP, 7 seats Liberals, and 1 seat Greens.  Likewise Advanced Symbolics which is an AI firm that correctly predicted Brexit and Trump's win has popular vote at 37.2% PC, 36.5% NDP, and 21.4% Liberal while seat count at 73 PC, 50 NDP, 1 Liberal and due to the NDP running up the margins that is why PCs would still win a majority.  However there are 14 seats the NDP can pick up but they have to take from Tory voters as taking 5% of current Tory voters would do the trick of 65 NDP to 57 PC while 5% from Liberals would not being 68 PC to 56 NDP.  Off course things can and will change before election date, but I wonder if Doug Ford will like Trump and like in the leadership race lose the popular vote but still win the election.  If that happens I think that will make the NDP argument for changing the electoral system that much stronger when they do form government.

1 Liberal ?  !!!!!

No he said 7 liberals and one Green Party member.

No, the AI calculation was for 1 Liberal seat.

[mileslunn]

Quito Maggi from Mainstreet tweeted despite close numbers, the firm has 67 seats PC, 47 seats NDP, 7 seats Liberals, and 1 seat Greens.  Likewise Advanced Symbolics which is an AI firm that correctly predicted Brexit and Trump's win has popular vote at 37.2% PC, 36.5% NDP, and 21.4% Liberal while seat count at 73 PC, 50 NDP, 1 Liberal and due to the NDP running up the margins that is why PCs would still win a majority.  However there are 14 seats the NDP can pick up but they have to take from Tory voters as taking 5% of current Tory voters would do the trick of 65 NDP to 57 PC while 5% from Liberals would not being 68 PC to 56 NDP.  Off course things can and will change before election date, but I wonder if Doug Ford will like Trump and like in the leadership race lose the popular vote but still win the election.  If that happens I think that will make the NDP argument for changing the electoral system that much stronger when they do form government.

1 Liberal ?  !!!!!

No he said 7 liberals and one Green Party member.

No, the AI calculation was for 1 Liberal seat.

And they said Toronto Centre.  My understanding from the polling and what I am hearing is PCs still fairly strong in GTA so in good shape to pick up many seats there, but outside the GTA is where NDP is surging and could put a few PC ridings especially in Southwestern Ontario in danger.

[MaxQue]

Quito Maggi from Mainstreet tweeted despite close numbers, the firm has 67 seats PC, 47 seats NDP, 7 seats Liberals, and 1 seat Greens.  Likewise Advanced Symbolics which is an AI firm that correctly predicted Brexit and Trump's win has popular vote at 37.2% PC, 36.5% NDP, and 21.4% Liberal while seat count at 73 PC, 50 NDP, 1 Liberal and due to the NDP running up the margins that is why PCs would still win a majority.  However there are 14 seats the NDP can pick up but they have to take from Tory voters as taking 5% of current Tory voters would do the trick of 65 NDP to 57 PC while 5% from Liberals would not being 68 PC to 56 NDP.  Off course things can and will change before election date, but I wonder if Doug Ford will like Trump and like in the leadership race lose the popular vote but still win the election.  If that happens I think that will make the NDP argument for changing the electoral system that much stronger when they do form government.

1 Liberal ?  !!!!!

I don't see the surprise of a sub-20 Liberal party having only one seat.

[136or142]

Quito Maggi from Mainstreet tweeted despite close numbers, the firm has 67 seats PC, 47 seats NDP, 7 seats Liberals, and 1 seat Greens.  Likewise Advanced Symbolics which is an AI firm that correctly predicted Brexit and Trump's win has popular vote at 37.2% PC, 36.5% NDP, and 21.4% Liberal while seat count at 73 PC, 50 NDP, 1 Liberal and due to the NDP running up the margins that is why PCs would still win a majority.  However there are 14 seats the NDP can pick up but they have to take from Tory voters as taking 5% of current Tory voters would do the trick of 65 NDP to 57 PC while 5% from Liberals would not being 68 PC to 56 NDP.  Off course things can and will change before election date, but I wonder if Doug Ford will like Trump and like in the leadership race lose the popular vote but still win the election.  If that happens I think that will make the NDP argument for changing the electoral system that much stronger when they do form government.

1 Liberal ?  !!!!!

I don't see the surprise of a sub-20 Liberal party having only one seat.

It's unprecedented (for the Liberals in Ontario.)  One more to Hatfield level.  (Of course, this is just a projection, but if accurate this is the real McCoy.)

[adma]

Big news: Hazel McCallion endorses Doug Ford.  Not sure that will make a big difference provincewide but could definitely help in Mississauga where she was very popular.  Definitely a good catch and helps deflect from the bad news.

She owes her life to the Fords, remember

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2013/08/16/rob_ford_saves_hazel_mccallion_and_helps_her_land_a_big_fish.html

[adma]

Very cool! You'd have a good on the ground feel. Looks like in 2014, Ingersoll went really strong for the NDP, Woodstock looks mixed and Tillsonburg is leaning PC. Whats the likely hood of the NDP increasing in Woodstock?, looks like North of Dundas Street was mostly PC/OLP, some NDP strength. And in Tillsonburg?, most PC support was west of Hwy 15.
As mentioned, this could be an urban/small town and Rural divide. With Woodstock/Ingersoll/Tilsonburg making up about 70000 of the population. The NDP would need some rural polls, more then the 3 or so they won in 2014.

For a model for what might happen, look to how Wayne Gates did in Niagara Falls in 2014.

I can see Woodstock, Ingersoll, and much of Tillsonburg swept, as well as smaller centres like Beachville and Thamesford, maybe even an impression in Norwich and Tavistock and other small communities.

As for Tillsonburg's west-of-15 Tory support, much of that is due to the Hickory Hills retirement community.

[adma]

I heard through the NDP grapevine that they are shockingly finding themselves in contention in Elgin-Middlesex-London

Look at it this way: as high as Conservatives are in much of rural Ontario, let's remember that the NDP hasn't fared that badly in such seats in recent times.  And I think a lot of this modern tendency really started when Jack Layton took over the federal party--one could see in the 2004 federal election that they had a surprising "presence" (signage et al) in hitherto fallow ground like Northumberland and Quinte, which showed in 15%+ ballot-box results.  Like there was a nerve to be tapped there, and a nerve worth tapping.  As for E-M-L, under Layton the NDP grew to be good for a quarter of the vote--even if the Tories still dominated, with such figures one'd be a fool to discount NDP "potential" despite all conventional wisdom et al.  So, maybe that's what's happening now--the "potential" bearing fruit...