Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yeah, I now think this will be a LA-GOV 2015 redux. People (especially Republicans, but some "concerned" Democrats as well) will ignore the polls because "the state is just too red", but in the end the Democrat wins by a surprisingly wide margin. Jones +8-12 would be my guess for now, his support among White women is going to collapse bigly.

Quoting so you can't deny this later

Wulf, I strongly advise against comparing your record of accurate predictions against Treasurer's.

There's no comparison of overall accuracy here. I will note that my record, in terms of final predictions, is actually a lot better than most of Atlas seems to believe, outside of course 2016 President, which basically everyone on Atlas got wrong. My intention is simply to preserve MT's prediction, in the case that he does not amend it by election day, so that he can be acknowledged for the correctness or incorrectness of his prediction.

[Crumpets]

I posted this in the General Discussion thread. Posting it here. Terrible interview by Moore with Hannity, as close to a non-denial as it gets. Wouldn't be surprised if he cracks under pressure & admits the next time.


[snip]

Crooked Roy Moore !!!

Compare: https://youtu.be/jP_PrnCOi8w?t=7m24s

[Ebsy]

Amazing that the usual suspects are still defending Moore after the yearbook.

[Skye]

I wonder if he'll become the next Todd Akin if he doesn't drop out of the race.

[Gass3268]

Looks like Breitbart is jumping off the Moore train:

[Santander]

Bannon is not an idiot. He will stand and fight only if he sees a chance for victory. Breitbart turning on Moore says more about Moore's chances than the polls do.

[Blair]

Leave his ass on the ballot. It would have been bloody murder if Democrats called for moving the goal posts to get out of electing or losing with a problematic candidate. Either vote for the pedophile or don’t. Own it.

The Democrats did it in New Jersey in 2002.  A crook was replaced after the withdrawal period had passed.  What is good for the goose is good for the gander.   It might not work out, but is worth a try from a Republican point of view

As they said on Pod Save America, if New Jersey Democrats are the new moral standard we're ed.

That aside; didn't the polling actually show a Strange WI effort with Moore on the ballot actually doesn't make a big difference?

[Hindsight was 2020]

If 'Bama still elects him they need to be kicked out of the country

[EnglishPete]

Amazing that the usual suspects are still defending Moore after the yearbook.

My goodness, she had his signature, well that proves it! And she had a drawing of herself! That proves it even more. Her transparently fake acting yesterday can therefore be ignored.

The impression I get from everything that has been said, both in the WaPo article and things he has said himself, is that Moore was an unusually prim and proper young man who adhered closely to the Christian ideal of Chastity before marriage and who therefore never groped, fondled or had sexual intercourse with anyone, of any age, before he married at the age of 38 to his then 24 year old bride and that he has been entirely faithful to her since then.

[Oryxslayer]

Cook moves the race to tossup - http://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/alabama-senate/alabama-senate-one-hot-mess-moves-toss

They call this presently the most uncertain race since Mel Carnahan died 3 weeks before the 2000 Missouri senate election.

[BundouYMB]

EnglishPete would happily watch his own daughter get raped as long as the rapist was white. Just put him on ignore guys.

[RogueBeaver]

State party probably won't pull endorsement because it would cause a yuge civil war not seen since Dems in 1986. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alabama_gubernatorial_election,_1986

[Gass3268]

Paul Ryan joins everyone else in calling for Moore to step down:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Also Drudge is not being nice to Moore either.

[Mr. Morden]

What does "dropping out of the race" even mean?  It's too late to get his name off the ballot, or to have it replaced by another name, right?  So even if Moore was playing ball on this, what would he do?  Promise to resign on day 1, in the event that he's actually elected, and endorse the write in candidacy of another Republican?

[Torie]

What does "dropping out of the race" even mean?  It's too late to get his name off the ballot, or to have it replaced by another name, right?  So even if Moore was playing ball on this, what would he do?  Promise to resign on day 1, in the event that he's actually elected, and endorse the write in candidacy of another Republican?

Urging all of his supporters to write in Strange's name.

[Pyro]

Bannon is not an idiot. He will stand and fight only if he sees a chance for victory. Breitbart turning on Moore says more about Moore's chances than the polls do.

Looks like the  D E E P  S T A T E  won this one, lads. Thanks, Mitch.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

There's no comparison of overall accuracy here. I will note that my record, in terms of final predictions, is actually a lot better than most of Atlas seems to believe, outside of course 2016 President, which basically everyone on Atlas got wrong. My intention is simply to preserve MT's prediction, in the case that he does not amend it by election day, so that he can be acknowledged for the correctness or incorrectness of his prediction.

Okay, Senator Strange. I really don't care if I'm wrong or not, and this isn't even my final prediction, so go ahead and do whatever you want with that comment. I'm not sure if someone who believes Republicans have the same or even a better chance of winning a Senate race in ME, NJ and VA than in MT (even after last week's election results) is really in a good position to ridicule other posters' predictions, but I digress.

Unfortunately the forum predictions don't differentiate between Lean and Likely, but I have NJ, ME, and VA as Likely D and MT as Lean D. Also, I publicly reversed my Strange prediction before the runoff.

[McGovernForPrez]

If Breitbart is bailing on Moore this is probably over. Seems like things only go down hill from here for him.

[Baki]

Jones was supposed to Washington (I think) last night for a fundraiser with Kamala Harris, Cory Booker and alike... but it was canceled.

In my opinion, the Jones campaign is handling this Moore disgrace pretty good.

[Santander]

Jones was supposed to Washington (I think) last night for a fundraiser with Kamala Harris, Cory Booker and alike... but it was canceled.

In my opinion, the Jones campaign is handling this Moore disgrace pretty good.

The last place Jones should be spotted right now is at a fundraiser with Kamala Harris of all people.

[Baki]

Jones was supposed to Washington (I think) last night for a fundraiser with Kamala Harris, Cory Booker and alike... but it was canceled.

In my opinion, the Jones campaign is handling this Moore disgrace pretty good.

The last place Jones should be spotted right now is at a fundraiser with Kamala Harris of all people.

That's what I was trying to say as well.
I guess I failed.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Jones was supposed to Washington (I think) last night for a fundraiser with Kamala Harris, Cory Booker and alike... but it was canceled.

In my opinion, the Jones campaign is handling this Moore disgrace pretty good.

Jones is really doing the best he can to win this.

[Devout Centrist]

Do they know they’re dealing with Roy Moore? He’s not going to withdraw or step down.

[Arkansas Yankee]

State party probably won't pull endorsement because it would cause a yuge civil war not seen since Dems in 1986. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alabama_gubernatorial_election,_1986

What does "dropping out of the race" even mean?  It's too late to get his name off the ballot, or to have it replaced by another name, right?  So even if Moore was playing ball on this, what would he do?  Promise to resign on day 1, in the event that he's actually elected, and endorse the write in candidacy of another Republican?

What does "dropping out of the race" even mean?  It's too late to get his name off the ballot, or to have it replaced by another name, right?  So even if Moore was playing ball on this, what would he do?  Promise to resign on day 1, in the event that he's actually elected, and endorse the write in candidacy of another Republican?

Urging all of his supporters to write in Strange's name.

Agreed the state Party would probably not decertify Moore due to the brouhaha it would cause.  

If he stepped down voluntarily and still won the vote, it seems that the election would be voided.  Jones would not be elected.

If he stepped down I am sure a strategic decision would have to be made whether a write in campaign should be waged, whether there was time to ask the court to add a new nominee on the ballot, or voting for Moore seeking to void the election.  

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

If Jones wins, on what date is he seated?