UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May

[Silent Hunter]

Don't forget the paedophile.

[beesley]

 

Final declarations/estimate - add a few MPs to each candidate for an accurate reading. 15 mins we'll see how right we were!

[Silent Hunter]

First ballot result (eliminated candidates in italics)

Michael Gove: 37

Matt Hancock: 20

Mark Harper: 10

Jeremy Hunt: 43

Sajid Javid: 23

Boris Johnson: 114

Andrea Leadsom: 11

Esther McVey: 9

Dominic Raab: 27

Rory Stewart: 19

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

So, is anyone likely to overtake Hunt to join Johnson on the postal ballot?

[Tintrlvr]

So, is anyone likely to overtake Hunt to join Johnson on the postal ballot?

I think the consensus is that the others will generally transfer to each other and not to him, so yes, but it seems to me like he should get good transfers from some, like Hancock.

Johnson feels almost certain to win at this point.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If the Brexit wing really wants to cover their bases, they could easily afford some defections from the BoJo camp in favour of Raab to ensure that the public vote would be between two hard brexiteers (not that the Tory membership would vote for Hunt, but still). Raab may also be bolstered from the McVey/Leadsom voters.

[YL]

Can't the Tory leadership stuff stay in its own thread?

In other news, Change UK is changing its name again.  They now want to be "The Independent Group for Change"; this is apparently because of confusion with change.org but you suspect also that they are no longer so keen on their name being abbreviated to ChUK since Umunna left the party.

[CumbrianLefty]

Sorry to stay on the Tory stuff - but that (non) vote for McVey is just delicious isn't it?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Umunna has apparently joined the LibDems.

[Silent Hunter]

Don't know why he didn't do that directly...

[DaWN]

Umunna has apparently joined the LibDems.

And thus a potentially encouraging career comes to its sad and inevitable conclusion

[CumbrianLefty]

Umunna has apparently joined the LibDems.

Says he is "delighted" to make the move - not all of his new party is as pleased though.

[YL]

Umunna has apparently joined the LibDems.

Says he is "delighted" to make the move - not all of his new party is as pleased though.

Three parties (plus a brief stint as an Independent) in just under four months.  I would be quite wary of him were I a Lib Dem.

I wonder whether any of the others will follow.  There may be some tricky negotiations as the Lib Dems had already selected candidates in most of their seats; the Streatham one has apparently stepped down.

[Blair]

Most Lib Dems I've seen are fine about it- they get someone who's an experienced media performer, and who's lead the cross party campaigning on Brexit.

Besides, he's the same basic profile as 90% of the people who've joined the Lib Dems since 2016...

[DaWN]

Anyone know if the LDs carried Streatham in the Euros last month? They carried Lambeth fairly comfortably but that well could have been running up the score in my seat.

[Silent Hunter]

Streatham isn't a London borough - the results only go down that far.

[YL]

Anyone know if the LDs carried Streatham in the Euros last month? They carried Lambeth fairly comfortably but that well could have been running up the score in my seat.

Hanretty estimates
Lib Dem 10936
Lab 6935
Green 6199
Brexit Party 2992
Change UK 2675
Con 1391
Other 930

... so would have to be quite badly wrong for the Lib Dems not to have carried it.

(Link for Hanretty's estimates)

[DaWN]

Anyone know if the LDs carried Streatham in the Euros last month? They carried Lambeth fairly comfortably but that well could have been running up the score in my seat.

Hanretty estimates
Lib Dem 10936
Lab 6935
Green 6199
Brexit Party 2992
Change UK 2675
Con 1391
Other 930

... so would have to be quite badly wrong for the Lib Dems not to have carried it.

(Link for Hanretty's estimates)

Thanks, precisely what I was looking for. Looks like he'd have a half decent chance of holding on even when general election patterns reestablish themselves under those numbers.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think that is considerably overstating it.

[YL]

Most Lib Dems I've seen are fine about it- they get someone who's an experienced media performer, and who's lead the cross party campaigning on Brexit.

Besides, he's the same basic profile as 90% of the people who've joined the Lib Dems since 2016...

Yes, I haven't seen anyone expressing doubts in public, but I feel I'd have some concerns about the level of his commitment to the party.

It's also true that it seems like a lot of Labour people (and CumbrianLeftie may say more here) had rather little time for him even before his defection.  No doubt this had something to do with the horrible rampant factionalism in the party, but he did get singled out.

As for whether he has a chance of holding Streatham in his new colours, it was close in 2010, but it looks unlikely barring a Labour meltdown in certain types of urban seats.

[CumbrianLefty]

2010 was when the LibDems still had a significant left of (New) Labour vote to call on, of course.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Can't the Tory leadership stuff stay in its own thread?

In other news, Change UK is changing its name again.  They now want to be "The Independent Group for Change"; this is apparently because of confusion with change.org but you suspect also that they are no longer so keen on their name being abbreviated to ChUK since Umunna left the party.

These clowns are a gift that keeps on giving

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Can't the Tory leadership stuff stay in its own thread?

In other news, Change UK is changing its name again.  They now want to be "The Independent Group for Change"; this is apparently because of confusion with change.org but you suspect also that they are no longer so keen on their name being abbreviated to ChUK since Umunna left the party.

These clowns are a gift that keeps on giving

If only there was a way they wouldn't need to exist. If only they were a reaction to something specific that they repeatedly warned people about. IF ONLY.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Can't the Tory leadership stuff stay in its own thread?

In other news, Change UK is changing its name again.  They now want to be "The Independent Group for Change"; this is apparently because of confusion with change.org but you suspect also that they are no longer so keen on their name being abbreviated to ChUK since Umunna left the party.

These clowns are a gift that keeps on giving

If only there was a way they wouldn't need to exist. If only they were a reaction to something specific that they repeatedly warned people about. IF ONLY.

Taking the Labour Party's antisemitism problem seriously and observing that TIG/ChUK/TIGC/whatever are clowns (I would add: with two or three individual exceptions) are not mutually exclusive.

[DaWN]

Can't the Tory leadership stuff stay in its own thread?

In other news, Change UK is changing its name again.  They now want to be "The Independent Group for Change"; this is apparently because of confusion with change.org but you suspect also that they are no longer so keen on their name being abbreviated to ChUK since Umunna left the party.

These clowns are a gift that keeps on giving

If only there was a way they wouldn't need to exist. If only they were a reaction to something specific that they repeatedly warned people about. IF ONLY.

Taking the Labour Party's antisemitism problem seriously and observing that TIG/ChUK/TIGC/whatever are clowns (I would add: with two or three individual exceptions) are not mutually exclusive.

British politics unfortunately became a zero sum game a long time ago and nowhere is that more true when discussing Corbyn's Labour