Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Pollster]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/22/democrats-georgia-governors-race-trump-351259?lo=ap_f1

Once again, some Dem primary polling would be great around now.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Former Atlanta Mayoral candidate Vincent Fort is eyeing a run for Lt. Governor.

He was endorsed by Bernie Sanders/Our Revolution during the Mayor's Race.

https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics-blog/vincent-fort-eyes-bid-for-georgia-lieutenant-governor/sksX13gyHAbdIpq7ZApLcO/

Also would like to add, he's not exactly a fan of Stacey Abrams.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Stacey Evans got a little criticism for a "tone deaf" ad she released that showed her at the historic Ebenezer Baptist Church celebration on MLK Day:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Evans campaign stated that this was a ploy by Abrams to distort the meaning of the video:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics-blog/georgia-2018-evans-faces-criticism-for-tone-deaf-mlk-video/MweviuJ4gC9P1k9Wtih5bP/

Ebenezer Baptist Church asked her to take it down:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics-blog/mlk-church-georgia-gov-candidate-wasn-authorized-film-building/zMxV3SvcrPqtZ1AUXPkOIO/

Here's the ad:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7J-hMWnYbZM&feature=youtu.be

I'm not really sure why they blamed the Abrams campaign

[KingSweden]

Remarkably tone deaf

[Cold War Liberal]

No one on the Evans campaign thought "hey maybe digital MLK blackface isn't a good thing to do?"

Evans campaign stated that this was a ploy by Abrams to distort the meaning of the video:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'm not really sure why they blamed the Abrams campaign

Did Evans seriously just try to pull the "god why do you people have to make everything about race" card?

[Pollster]

Evans should consider dropping out and running for AG instead. There are no Dem candidates declared yet, and her career as an attorney is much more impressive than her career as a legislator. After her MLK Day gaffe, it may be better for her in the long-run to seek out a lower-profile office first where she can carve out a more prominent political reputation before going for higher office.

Or, she can probably make a decent run for GA-6. Not sure if she lives within the district lines but her House district does overlap, and she'd probably be a more decent fit there rather than statewide.

[Rookie Yinzer]

She is definitely not exiting this race. There was just a reception for her last night at the residence of Governor Barnes. He is not throwing his weight behind someone only for them to drop out.

Abrams is going to have to fight for the nomination. There are a lot of Democrats who just DO NOT like her and would rather chew glass than have her be the standard-bearer of the party.

[Cold War Liberal]

She won't, but:

Evans should consider dropping out and running for AG instead.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Why is Jason Carter sitting this cycle out? I would've thought that he'd run for a row office.

Yeah he really made a bad choice. National Democrats might be excited for Abrams, but no one in the state that’s actually heard of her, likes her. And Evans is just so bland, we’re blowing a winnable race.

[QAnonKelly]

Yeah, the gov’s race isn’t exactly shaking out the way I thought it would  either. I’m still nominally behind Evans but I’ve more or less decided if Abrams is ahead come May, I’ll just vote for her in the primary. I don’t want it to go to a run off. Someone also needs to jump into the AG Race on the D side bc that is a wide open race that is very winnable.

[Pollster]

Yeah, the gov’s race isn’t exactly shaking out the way I thought it would  either. I’m still nominally behind Evans but I’ve more or less decided if Abrams is ahead come May, I’ll just vote for her in the primary. I don’t want it to go to a run off. Someone also needs to jump into the AG Race on the D side bc that is a wide open race that is very winnable.

Do you think the race between Abrams and Evans will be close enough that write-in votes will send it to a run-off?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Vincent Fort was at the reception for Evans that I mentioned a few posts up. Since Evans is dead set on wrangling up Trump voters, Fort would be a good candidate to rally votes in the black Democratic base of Atlanta, DeKalb County, and the other major cities.

My ideal Lt. Governor candidate if Abrams won the nomination would be a charismatic, popular white male legislator from Southwest Georgia. If one exists, I hope he throws his hat in the race soon. There are a lot of Democratic votes out there and that's probably the most fertile area for persuading white rural votes in the entire state.

Someone also needs to jump into the AG Race on the D side bc that is a wide open race that is very winnable.

Seriously! We should be leaving no race uncontested. Teresa Tomlinson would probably do it if she weren't prepping a 2020 Senate run. I think she should go ahead and just wait until 2022 so she can be recognizable statewide.

Do you think the race between Abrams and Evans will be close enough that write-in votes will send it to a run-off?

I don't think so. Both of these women are capable, and I haven't seen much of anyone saying they were disillusioned by both choices. They pretty much are avatars for the two Democratic identities in the state.

In my opinion, it will either be a convincing Abrams win (7-10 point lead) or a bare Evans win (1-3 points). I am ready to see these fundraising numbers so we can see what Evans has in her arsenal. She has a name recognition gap to make up for and FAST.

[QAnonKelly]

Yeah, the gov’s race isn’t exactly shaking out the way I thought it would  either. I’m still nominally behind Evans but I’ve more or less decided if Abrams is ahead come May, I’ll just vote for her in the primary. I don’t want it to go to a run off. Someone also needs to jump into the AG Race on the D side bc that is a wide open race that is very winnable.

Do you think the race between Abrams and Evans will be close enough that write-in votes will send it to a run-off?

I don’t think so but the GOP race is bound to go to a runoff at this point and all of them but Cagle are crazy so I say let them fight it out by themselves while whichever Stacey wins lays low and clean.
 

And yes I think we’re seeing people sit out this cycle waiting on the senate seat in 2020. They see that as a big opportunity. Perdue is super vulnerable and keeps writing his own attack ads. If Trump is on the ticket, it’ll be easy for the D presidential nominee to drag Tomilson/Carter/Whomever over the finish line.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I might just vote in the GOP primary to help out Casey Cagle. Would be nice to have non batsh**t insane insurance in case one of the Stacey's don't win in November. I don't really have much of a preference between the two Stacey's right now.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Can we crossover in the run off? I want Cagle's character to be damaged with the "Trump-ey voters" but I want him to be the nominee.

[QAnonKelly]

Can we crossover in the run off? I want Cagle's character to be damaged with the "Trump-ey voters" but I want him to be the nominee.

That’s what I would probably do tbh.

[PragmaticPopulist]

It actually does make more sense for Evans if she ran for Attorney General than Governor; she has a lawyer's background, and AG races aren't as partisan as gubernatorial races. Add to it that there's no incumbent, and this would seem to be the best chance a Democrat has to pick up the seat. Evans would still be my choice in the primary though.

[QAnonKelly]

As said above, someone would be really smart to jump into the AG race this year bc it’s wide ope and use that as a springboard for the 2022 senate seat. It’ll likely be an open seat too (if Isakson can make it that far given how sick he is). If this is really the year GA starts to be competive, the AG position should be the easiest pick up. Especially because we’re two months out from the deadline and no one has filed yet

[QAnonKelly]

Unsurprisingly, the teachers’ union backed Evans today

https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics-blog/georgia-2018-teachers-group-backs-evans-race-for-governor/Wzdkpj5KzjEppNW1ImiqOM/

[Adam Griffin]

To anybody who thinks Cagle would be "sane", you're mistaken. He may be the "establishment" choice by virtue of incumbency, but he is not going to be the most reasonable one in the primary if elected (that distinction will go to Kemp, who is pretending to be hard right for expediency).

I will say this, though...Cagle will be a lot weaker in a top-ticket contest than many people realize. Not to oversimplify it, but he is David Vitter 2.0 in wait.

Also, GA has open primaries so you can vote in whichever primary you prefer - but in the event of a primary run-off, you have to cast a ballot in the same party primary as you did in the primary general (no voting in DEM primary and GOP primary run-off, or vice-versa).

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams raised $1.7 million since the last fundraising disclosure. Can't wait to see how much she has on hand, and what percentage are Georgia donors in comparison to Evans.

http://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/georgia-2018-abrams-raises-nearly-more-gov-run/GvtLR3bHWQvzHwNGvaX3pN/

[Del Tachi]

To anybody who thinks Cagle would be "sane", you're mistaken. He may be the "establishment" choice by virtue of incumbency, but he is not going to be the most reasonable one in the primary if elected (that distinction will go to Kemp, who is pretending to be hard right for expediency).

I will say this, though...Cagle will be a lot weaker in a top-ticket contest than many people realize. Not to oversimplify it, but he is David Vitter 2.0 in wait.

Also, GA has open primaries so you can vote in whichever primary you prefer - but in the event of a primary run-off, you have to cast a ballot in the same party primary as you did in the primary general (no voting in DEM primary and GOP primary run-off, or vice-versa).

Yep, exactly.  The business and agricultural communities have been lining-up behind Brian Kemp and he'd be a much more competent governor than Cagle.  Cagle has led early primary polls because of higher name recognition than Kemp, but Kemp's campaign is much more well-funded and organized.  By the time May 22 second rolls around, I think we'll be heading to a Kemp/Cagle runoff (or maybe even an outright Kemp win) and that runoff probably comes down to a battle of ITP vs OTP Republicans (which Kemp will win as athe OTP Republican).

[QAnonKelly]

I don’t see how Kemp gets passed wiping an election server and the state not defending him in court.

[KingSweden]

Pardon... ITP and OTP?

[Del Tachi]

Pardon... ITP and OTP?

Outside of the Perimeter and Inside of the Perimeter - probably the biggest cultural and political division in the state of Georgia.

The Perimeter referring to Interstate 485 - the circumferential highway around Atlanta

ITP is dominated by the city of Atlanta and its more liberal environs, both Black (SW Atlanta) and White (Midtown, Decatur).  It also includes Buckhead, Druid Hills and other areas that are historically Metro Atlanta's "old money" Republican areas.  Cagle is a good fit here because he's perceived as more socially moderate and has an ITP political pedigree.

OTP Atlanta is mostly newer suburbs and exurbs which, while becoming increasingly racially and politically diverse, still maintain a more fundamentally rural character and tend to see the city of Atlanta as a potential drain on regional resources.  Brian Kemp will do well here because the more rural nature of his campaign, and his more overt socially conservative and pro-Trump messaging.

The distinction is probably more temporal than physical than this point (Alpharetta and a lot of Cobb County look and feel a lot more like Buckhead than Lawrenceville, for example), but my point was that Cagle will probably do better with well-of Republican suburbanites whereas Kemp is playing for the more rural and exurban Republican vote.  A few other GOP nominating contests have shaped up this way.  Cagle will need to post very large margins in Fulton, Cobb, DeKalb and has a strong showing in Gwinnet if he's going to have any chance of substantially biting into Kemp's number in rural Georgia - especially South Georgia.