The NY-26 Election. Have fun but keep your shirt on.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Or, if we're being honest, fascist.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Compare and contrast janecorwin.com with janecorwin.org. It's subtle at first.

[Meeker]

Compare and contrast janecorwin.com with janecorwin.org. It's subtle at first.

Brilliant.

[HST1948]

Compare and contrast janecorwin.com with janecorwin.org. It's subtle at first.

Absolutely fantastic!

[Niemeyerite]

Compare and contrast janecorwin.com with janecorwin.org. It's subtle at first.

Awesome! www.janecorwin.org, best site ever!

[minionofmidas]

Very funny - but you have an interesting definition of "subtle".

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Very funny - but you have an interesting definition of "subtle".

I mean that if you glance at it, it looks like the same website.

[Tender Branson]

Politico has the scoop on a new internal poll out from the Kathy Hochul campaign which shows the Erie County Democrat in a dead heat for a race in an open Congressional seat against Republican Jane Corwin.

According to the poll, by Global Strategy Group, Corwin has 31 percent of the vote while Hochul grabs 30 percent. Independent candidate Jack Davis has 26 percent.

The race is to replace Christopher Lee, who resigned when half-nude photos of himself that he used to solicit dates onlines surfaced. The district is heavily Republican leaning one, but the presence of Davis has given Democrats an opening.

The poll is an internal one, and so should be taken with a grain of salt but is not different from a Siena poll taken last week which showed Corwin with a five point lead over Hochul.

http://www.observer.com/2011/politics/poll-corwinhochul-dead-heat

[Badger]

Politico has the scoop on a new internal poll out from the Kathy Hochul campaign which shows the Erie County Democrat in a dead heat for a race in an open Congressional seat against Republican Jane Corwin.

According to the poll, by Global Strategy Group, Corwin has 31 percent of the vote while Hochul grabs 30 percent. Independent candidate Jack Davis has 26 percent.

The race is to replace Christopher Lee, who resigned when half-nude photos of himself that he used to solicit dates onlines surfaced. The district is heavily Republican leaning one, but the presence of Davis has given Democrats an opening.

The poll is an internal one, and so should be taken with a grain of salt but is not different from a Siena poll taken last week which showed Corwin with a five point lead over Hochul.

http://www.observer.com/2011/politics/poll-corwinhochul-dead-heat

One can usually still use an internal to gauge the actual status of the race by simply knocking several points off the candidate behind the poll. Adding that grain of salt to a poll showing Hochul one point down tends to coroborate the recent Siena poll.

Close race. Even Davis isn't entirely out of it yet.

[Joe Republic]

I haven't really been following this race.  What ballot lines are each candidate running on?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I haven't really been following this race.  What ballot lines are each candidate running on?

Hochul has D/WF, Corwin has R/Cons/IP, Jack Davis is on his own specially-made "Tea Party" ticket.

[Cincinnatus]

I haven't really been following this race.  What ballot lines are each candidate running on?

Hochul has D/WF, Corwin has R/Cons/IP, Jack Davis is on his own specially-made "Tea Party" ticket.

Jack Davis is a joke here.  Even the tea party has bashed him.  The 26th district is historically conservative and I live but a few miles away from it.  Bunch of towns, rural areas, and a large white population.  That entire Lockport-North Tonawanda area has a large Republican population.  Western New Yorkers are used to scandals in the state so, not sure how much that will play into it.

[Nation]

I haven't really been following this race.  What ballot lines are each candidate running on?

Hochul has D/WF, Corwin has R/Cons/IP, Jack Davis is on his own specially-made "Tea Party" ticket.

Jack Davis is a joke here.  Even the tea party has bashed him.  The 26th district is historically conservative and I live but a few miles away from it.  Bunch of towns, rural areas, and a large white population.  That entire Lockport-North Tonawanda area has a large Republican population.  Western New Yorkers are used to scandals in the state so, not sure how much that will play into it.

Davis' support will go down, he'll get at least 15% on election day, if not closer to 20%. I'm amazed most polls continue to show him...competitive. He really is a joke, but he has this really strange core group of supporters who refuse to abandon him.

If Hochul continues to hammer Corwin, keep the focus on her supporting the Ryan budget/changes to Medicare, it'll be a toss-up come election day. And if not a toss up, then at least give Hochul a 30-40% chance of winning. Davis is the wild card here, and I honestly have no idea where the hell his support is coming from.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I haven't really been following this race.  What ballot lines are each candidate running on?

Hochul has D/WF, Corwin has R/Cons/IP, Jack Davis is on his own specially-made "Tea Party" ticket.

Jack Davis is a joke here.  Even the tea party has bashed him.  The 26th district is historically conservative and I live but a few miles away from it.  Bunch of towns, rural areas, and a large white population.  That entire Lockport-North Tonawanda area has a large Republican population.  Western New Yorkers are used to scandals in the state so, not sure how much that will play into it.

Davis' support will go down, he'll get at least 15% on election day, if not closer to 20%. I'm amazed most polls continue to show him...competitive. He really is a joke, but he has this really strange core group of supporters who refuse to abandon him.

If Hochul continues to hammer Corwin, keep the focus on her supporting the Ryan budget/changes to Medicare, it'll be a toss-up come election day. And if not a toss up, then at least give Hochul a 30-40% chance of winning. Davis is the wild card here, and I honestly have no idea where the hell his support is coming from.

Whoa man. It's awesome to see you back.

[minionofmidas]

Blast from the past, Kev.

Davis' high support may just be indicative of low turnout, no?

[Nation]

Blast from the past, Kev.

Davis' high support may just be indicative of low turnout, no?

That's what I thought, too, but, as someone who's personally met Jack Davis --- I don't know. I think he might be a cult leader.


Don't know how long I'll stick around here, Lewis/BRTD. There seems to be more hacks than there was when I left, and I didn't think that was possible. Also, I'm extremely left-wing now. Probably equal to BRTD. Suck on that, AMERICA

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There seems to be more hacks than there was when I left, and I didn't think that was possible.

Amazing isn't it? Welcome back

[Sam Spade]

Blast from the past, Kev.

Davis' high support may just be indicative of low turnout, no?

That's what I thought, too, but, as someone who's personally met Jack Davis --- I don't know. I think he might be a cult leader.


Don't know how long I'll stick around here, Lewis/BRTD. There seems to be more hacks than there was when I left, and I didn't think that was possible. Also, I'm extremely left-wing now. Probably equal to BRTD. Suck on that, AMERICA

You can be whatever you want to be politically, but if you start making polls on suburbs, expect for me to call for your banishment.

[Nation]

Blast from the past, Kev.

Davis' high support may just be indicative of low turnout, no?

That's what I thought, too, but, as someone who's personally met Jack Davis --- I don't know. I think he might be a cult leader.


Don't know how long I'll stick around here, Lewis/BRTD. There seems to be more hacks than there was when I left, and I didn't think that was possible. Also, I'm extremely left-wing now. Probably equal to BRTD. Suck on that, AMERICA

You can be whatever you want to be politically, but if you start making polls on suburbs, expect for me to call for your banishment.

No, I live in Providence now, so still no suburbs for me either, but my personality hasn't changed.  I'm not sure I ever created a single poll in the 5500 posts or so I racked up.

Also, Mike Grimm has NOTHING on Chris Lee. I refuse to call his sh**tstorm a "scandal" until there are trannies involved.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Blast from the past, Kev.

Davis' high support may just be indicative of low turnout, no?

That's what I thought, too, but, as someone who's personally met Jack Davis --- I don't know. I think he might be a cult leader.


Don't know how long I'll stick around here, Lewis/BRTD. There seems to be more hacks than there was when I left, and I didn't think that was possible. Also, I'm extremely left-wing now. Probably equal to BRTD. Suck on that, AMERICA

You can be whatever you want to be politically, but if you start making polls on suburbs, expect for me to call for your banishment.

No, I live in Providence now, so still no suburbs for me either, but my personality hasn't changed.  I'm not sure I ever created a single poll in the 5500 posts or so I racked up.

Based on the general statistics, you've made 9.

I'm actually not too different from your standard urban liberal now. And I'm sure you're not surprised to know I now live in Minneapolis, near Uptown.

[Nation]

Blast from the past, Kev.

Davis' high support may just be indicative of low turnout, no?

That's what I thought, too, but, as someone who's personally met Jack Davis --- I don't know. I think he might be a cult leader.


Don't know how long I'll stick around here, Lewis/BRTD. There seems to be more hacks than there was when I left, and I didn't think that was possible. Also, I'm extremely left-wing now. Probably equal to BRTD. Suck on that, AMERICA

You can be whatever you want to be politically, but if you start making polls on suburbs, expect for me to call for your banishment.

No, I live in Providence now, so still no suburbs for me either, but my personality hasn't changed.  I'm not sure I ever created a single poll in the 5500 posts or so I racked up.

Based on the general statistics, you've made 9.

I'm actually not too different from your standard urban liberal now. And I'm sure you're not surprised to know I now live in Minneapolis, near Uptown.

OK, less than 1% of my total posts then!

And no, I'm not surprised. I still get hit hard with gas prices for driving down 95 to see my parents at the other end of the state -- so I have some of the same problems as suburbanites. Seriously, I think our President is awesome, but even Tim "Wonderbread" Pawlenty could beat him with $4.09 gas.

[Sam Spade]

Blast from the past, Kev.

Davis' high support may just be indicative of low turnout, no?

That's what I thought, too, but, as someone who's personally met Jack Davis --- I don't know. I think he might be a cult leader.


Don't know how long I'll stick around here, Lewis/BRTD. There seems to be more hacks than there was when I left, and I didn't think that was possible. Also, I'm extremely left-wing now. Probably equal to BRTD. Suck on that, AMERICA

You can be whatever you want to be politically, but if you start making polls on suburbs, expect for me to call for your banishment.

No, I live in Providence now, so still no suburbs for me either, but my personality hasn't changed.  I'm not sure I ever created a single poll in the 5500 posts or so I racked up.

Based on the general statistics, you've made 9.

I'm actually not too different from your standard urban liberal now. And I'm sure you're not surprised to know I now live in Minneapolis, near Uptown.

OK, less than 1% of my total posts then!

And no, I'm not surprised. I still get hit hard with gas prices for driving down 95 to see my parents at the other end of the state -- so I have some of the same problems as suburbanites. Seriously, I think our President is awesome, but even Tim "Wonderbread" Pawlenty could beat him with $4.09 gas.

Tim Pawlenty couldn't win the nomination even with $4.09 gas.

My best guess at this point (and it is a guess at this point) is that Obama is more likely to lose re-election than win it, but it's probably 55-45 against at this point, so I wouldn't consider it an important difference.  I have pretty much always been negative towards Obama since January 2008 (and would have still supported Hillary before then), but this is the rational observation based on the below.

By looking at the economic figures, the numbers suggest that GDP will go negative either 4thQ this year or 1stQ next year with QE2 ending in June.  If the Fed does decide to pump more money to keep this from occurring, it will likely continue to go into commodity speculation, so the game will be to try and keep commodities from shooting the moon without the recession occurring.  Not that this is "easy" to do, but I suspect it will be done because my best guess is that the GOP is more likely than not to nominate someone who is not Fed-friendly (which would be perhaps the first positive thing out of the GOP in quite a while if so).

The simple point, though, is that even when the Fed does this, it is very tricky, and can backfire as it did in 1980.

FWIW, I said that I wouldn't want to win the Presidency in 2008, and quite frankly I wouldn't want to win it in 2012 either.  So there.

[Rowan]

Apparently PPP will be releasing a poll today showing Hochul leading.

[Brittain33]

Apparently PPP will be releasing a poll today showing Hochul leading.

I'm glad this election will give us a test case, however flawed, about PPP's positive numbers for Dems.

[Tender Branson]

Apparently PPP will be releasing a poll today showing Hochul leading.

Says who ?