Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Nebraska 1st CD

[ElectionsGuy]

Two votes. One for a rating (Safe D, Lean R, Toss-Up, etc.) and one for a prediction of who will win (Clinton, Trump, or Other).

Note: If you think Johnson/Other will win a state, just vote 'Other' and don't vote for a rating.

Update/vote in these threads if you haven't already! There's no time limit and you can still affect the overall result:

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine ME-01 ME-02 Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska

Ratings

Florida: Toss-Up --> Undecided --> Lean D

Safe Clinton: 126
Likely Clinton: 17
Lean Clinton: 38
Toss-Up: 17
Lean Trump: 26
Likely Trump: 17
Safe Trump: 49

Clinton: 181
Trump: 92
Toss-Up: 17

Predictions

Clinton: 187
Trump: 103



Previous Results

2008: 54.3% McCain, 44.2% Obama
2012: 57.4% Romney, 40.8% Obama

NE-01: Likely R, 52-43 Trump. Only Likely R because the district is based in Lincoln, almost certainly a bad area for Trump, but the rest of the district is rural Republican that should deliver for him.

Florida is Lean D by one vote, while Colorado and ME-02 are two votes away from moving to Likely D and Lean D respectively. Also, give the Nebraska thread some love if you haven't already, it got buried in a mountain of threads if you know what I mean.

[MT Treasurer]

Safe R, Trump.

Trump 55%
Clinton 40%
Other 5%

[AGA]

Safe R

Trump: 55%
Clinton: 40%

[Senator-elect Spark]

Safe R.

Trump 57
Clinton 43

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Safe Republican

[Xing]

Likely R, Trump wins 53-43. Seems like a bad area for Trump, but it would take an enormous win on Hillary's part to really make this close.

[Heisenberg]

Safe R, Trump.

Trump 55%
Clinton 40%
Other 5%

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Likely R, Trump+10 or so. Should swing pretty significantly towards Clinton, but her ceiling here (outside of a landslide) is probably Trump+5 or so. Still, interesting to watch on Election Day, along with NE-2.

[evergreenarbor]

Likely R.

Trump: 50%
Clinton: 41%
Johnson: 8%
Stein: 1%

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Safe R, Trump 54-42

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

LOL... I love how Clinton has two votes when there's 1 tossup and no D votes

[DoctorWinstonOBoogie]

Nebraska 1st is a pipe-dream. She would win Missouri before she wins NE 1st. Safe Republican.

[Tiger front]

Safe R.
Trump 55 %
Clinton 40 %
Other 5 %

[AGA]

Why are there so many votes for Likely R? Clinton would need to win by about 20 points nationally to flip this district.

[Xing]

Why are there so many votes for Likely R? Clinton would need to win by about 20 points nationally to flip this district.

I'm not sure it would take a 20-point win, but some have differing ideas about what "safe" means. I highly doubt Trump has any kind of chance in Michigan or Minnesota, but I rated them Likely D out of caution.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Why are there so many votes for Likely R? Clinton would need to win by about 20 points nationally to flip this district.

Obama came within 10 in 2008, and judging by Trump's massive weakness in Kansas, NE-01 being slightly less than safe isn't out of the question.

[AGA]

Why are there so many votes for Likely R? Clinton would need to win by about 20 points nationally to flip this district.

I'm not sure it would take a 20-point win, but some have differing ideas about what "safe" means. I highly doubt Trump had any kind of chance in Michigan or Minnesota, but I rated them Likely D out of caution.

I agree that it depends on what "safe" means, but it seems strange that people still voted Minnesota as Safe D despite it being more competitive than NE-01 in past elections, even if Trump is a bad fit for the state.

[AGA]

Colorado is now rated as Likely D instead of Lean D.

[peterthlee]

Lean R
Trump 50-46-4
(Trump ought to get an absolute majority)