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|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter, TJ in Wisco)
| | |-+  absentee/early vote thread, part 2
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Author Topic: absentee/early vote thread, part 2  (Read 71232 times)
JimSharp
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« Reply #975 on: November 05, 2016, 02:15:38 am »
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Here are the current statewide numbers (which will change very slightly when the few remaining rural counties report Fri numbers):

Dems: 323,466 (42.2%)
Reps: 277,417 (36.1%)
Other: 166,532 (21.7%)
TOTAL: 767,415 (equal to 8.8% increase over 2012 EV)

So Dems have the exact same 42-36 = 6% edge over Reps that they had in 2012.




 


Interesting thing - if the "others" break by the 54-27 that CNN poll had them breaking the race is bascially tie right now... (Not saying they will, that's a weird number historically and demographically for NV, but it's an odd math quirk that that split will bring it back close.)
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #976 on: November 05, 2016, 02:28:18 am »
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Here are the current statewide numbers (which will change very slightly when the few remaining rural counties report Fri numbers):

Dems: 323,466 (42.2%)
Reps: 277,417 (36.1%)
Other: 166,532 (21.7%)
TOTAL: 767,415 (equal to 8.8% increase over 2012 EV)

So Dems have the exact same 42-36 = 6% edge over Reps that they had in 2012.




 


Interesting thing - if the "others" break by the 54-27 that CNN poll had them breaking the race is bascially tie right now... (Not saying they will, that's a weird number historically and demographically for NV, but it's an odd math quirk that that split will bring it back close.)

I think you're confusing self-identified independents and actual registered "Others", who tend to be younger and less white than the average electorate in most states, which is why most polls generally have "Others" trending Democratic by 10-20 points.
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« Reply #977 on: November 05, 2016, 02:40:57 am »
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<3 Nevada!
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« Reply #978 on: November 05, 2016, 02:51:39 am »
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What are the chances these states being called early?
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« Reply #979 on: November 05, 2016, 02:56:51 am »
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What are the chances these states being called early?

Nevada wasn't called early in 08 when Obama won by double-digits and Florida will never be called 'early' because of its centrality to the outcome and 2000 flashbacks. Having said that, of the two, I think FL has the better chance of being called early.
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« Reply #980 on: November 05, 2016, 06:25:16 am »
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More low Propensity voters are voting than expected, which would not make it through the LV screen of most polls. Is there a possible flaw with the LV screen?



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So far, 63% of the people with a >98% chance of voting have turned out. Our model doesn't seem like it has a great grasp on 20 v 50%

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« Reply #981 on: November 05, 2016, 06:28:07 am »
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It's a fundamental flaw with the LV screens. We saw it in 2012, and I think we're going to see it especially this year.
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« Reply #982 on: November 05, 2016, 06:45:26 am »
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It's a fundamental flaw with the LV screens. We saw it in 2012, and I think we're going to see it especially this year.

Good news for Clinton in all the states, not just those with early voting!

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« Reply #983 on: November 05, 2016, 06:55:25 am »
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More Floridians will vote early in 2016 than by mail. Many in GOP circles thought the opposite would happen
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QE
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« Reply #984 on: November 05, 2016, 07:07:41 am »
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Steve Schale:

Some Florida numbers thru Fri 5.731m total votes 464k yesterday alone. 368k in-person early. D: 39.55% R: 39.45% NPA: 21 1/


Can't crunch numbers for few hours, but NPA share went from 20.55% to 21 in one day, which suggests another strong Hispanic day 2/

Keep in mind these numbers often change a bit in morning & with many big counties had record turnout yesterday, these prob will too. 3/

Palm Beach County had its best day yesterday, but it is still a place that needs good weekend to catch up 4/

The Dade numbers, in the words of a very smart friend of mine, can only be described as "insane" 5/

Dade (D) & Lee (R) are in a daily battle for county most over-performing its projected turnout. I suspect Dade will grab #1 spot today. 6/
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« Reply #985 on: November 05, 2016, 07:46:10 am »
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CNN are painting a bright picture for Trump here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVpSksvTea8&feature=youtu.be
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« Reply #986 on: November 05, 2016, 07:56:23 am »
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CNN are painting a bright picture for Trump here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVpSksvTea8&feature=youtu.be

You've read enough to know the reality.
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« Reply #987 on: November 05, 2016, 08:08:57 am »
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Republicans up 17 among whites! Cheesy And bear in mind CNN is by no means pro-Trump.
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« Reply #988 on: November 05, 2016, 08:12:43 am »
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Republicans up 17 among whites! Cheesy And bear in mind CNN is by no means pro-Trump.

Read up - that's a BAD number for Trumpykins...
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« Reply #989 on: November 05, 2016, 08:13:17 am »
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Republicans up 17 among whites! Cheesy And bear in mind CNN is by no means pro-Trump.

Romney won whites by 20 nationwide and lost to Obama.
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« Reply #990 on: November 05, 2016, 08:15:56 am »
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Republicans up 17 among whites! Cheesy And bear in mind CNN is by no means pro-Trump.

That's a terrible number for Florida (the state they were referring to. Romney won Florida whites by 24
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« Reply #991 on: November 05, 2016, 08:16:33 am »
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Democrats retook the lead in Florida to the tune of 8k votes out of 5.7 million today.
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« Reply #992 on: November 05, 2016, 08:17:00 am »
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Republicans up 17 among whites! Cheesy And bear in mind CNN is by no means pro-Trump.

That's a terrible number for Florida (the state they were referring to. Romney won Florida whites by 24
Yeah, that's, um, a disaster for Republicans. Points towards a high single digit Clinton win in the state.
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Kalimantan
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« Reply #993 on: November 05, 2016, 08:18:55 am »
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Republicans up 17 among whites! Cheesy And bear in mind CNN is by no means pro-Trump.

Read up - that's a BAD number for Trumpykins...

Is it a bad number for early voting, as election day voting may skews republican?
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« Reply #994 on: November 05, 2016, 08:21:44 am »
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Republicans up 17 among whites! Cheesy And bear in mind CNN is by no means pro-Trump.

Read up - that's a BAD number for Trumpykins...

Is it a bad number for early voting, as election day voting may skews republican?

Considering how much of the vote of will be banked, the GOP would need a seriously remarkable election day outcome to make that up.
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alomas
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« Reply #995 on: November 05, 2016, 08:23:40 am »
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Romney won whites by 20 nationwide and lost to Obama.
It is only early voting though Smiley
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Brittain33
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« Reply #996 on: November 05, 2016, 08:29:32 am »
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Romney won whites by 20 nationwide and lost to Obama.
It is only early voting though Smiley

Ok, so you're banking on very large turnout on Election Day of white voters who vote more pro-Trump than the white voters (disproportionately elderly) who have shown up in large numbers so far.

I'm sorry, but that's a recipe for disappointment.
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alomas
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« Reply #997 on: November 05, 2016, 08:34:34 am »
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Republicans are doing better on Election Day. 17 points is only three points behind Romney's gap when the Florida was under 1 point.
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« Reply #998 on: November 05, 2016, 08:36:13 am »
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Republicans are doing better on Election Day. 17 points is only three points behind Romney's gap when the Florida was under 1 point.

No, Romney won whites by 24 in Florida...
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« Reply #999 on: November 05, 2016, 08:36:40 am »
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Per Election Project, we have now crossed the 39m vote line with many states left to update from yesterday, 85% of 2012's EV.
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