OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is damning. Kucinich should drop out.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/the-latest-kucinich-paid-20k-by-pro-syria-government-group/2018/04/17/7a264768-4288-11e8-b2dc-b0a403e4720a_story.html

What is it with Democrat "anti-establishment" types and having an affinity for Assad?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is damning. Kucinich should drop out.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/the-latest-kucinich-paid-20k-by-pro-syria-government-group/2018/04/17/7a264768-4288-11e8-b2dc-b0a403e4720a_story.html

It gets worse:
https://twitter.com/im_PULSE/status/986372134703419393

[Ohioguy29]

Moms Demand Action has given Cordray the "gun sense candidate" distinction. Don't really understand why, if I'm being honest, but hopefully that helps him in the primary.

[Canis]

https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/985956002330763265
Gabbard Endorses Kucinich

[YE]

https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/985956002330763265
Gabbard Endorses Kucinich

Totally shocked.

[BuckeyeNut]

Moms Demand Action has given Cordray the "gun sense candidate" distinction. Don't really understand why, if I'm being honest, but hopefully that helps him in the primary.

Yeah, I've basically come around to voting for Cordray in the primary -- though I still like Joe better -- and he really doesn't deserve Moms Demand Action's (non-)endorsement.

ION: Democrats have a 25,000 vote lead in primary votes thus far. For those curious, in 2006, when Strickland beat Blackwell by nearly two-to-one, there were 800,000 votes in the contested D primary and 825,000 votes in the contested R primary; in 2010, when both Strickland and Kasich went unchallenged in the primary, there were 630,000 votes in the D primary, and 745,000 votes in the R primary; and in 2014, where Kasich was uncontested and FitzGerald faced only token opposition, there were 440,000 votes in the D primary and 560,000 votes in the R primary.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/985956002330763265
Gabbard Endorses Kucinich

Of course she does.

[Oryxslayer]

Moms Demand Action has given Cordray the "gun sense candidate" distinction. Don't really understand why, if I'm being honest, but hopefully that helps him in the primary.

Yeah, I've basically come around to voting for Cordray in the primary -- though I still like Joe better -- and he really doesn't deserve Moms Demand Action's (non-)endorsement.

ION: Democrats have a 25,000 vote lead in primary votes thus far. For those curious, in 2006, when Strickland beat Blackwell by nearly two-to-one, there were 800,000 votes in the contested D primary and 825,000 votes in the contested R primary; in 2010, when both Strickland and Kasich went unchallenged in the primary, there were 630,000 votes in the D primary, and 745,000 votes in the R primary; and in 2014, where Kasich was uncontested and FitzGerald faced only token opposition, there were 440,000 votes in the D primary and 560,000 votes in the R primary.

I'm doing a nice post on my twitter - and probably here as well tomorrow, which includes a Town-by-town map of the 2010 race between Corday and DeWine which took forever to create because Ohio never participated in the pre-2010 tigerline project and lack precinct shapefiles for the race. The fact that Rs tend to always have a primary advantage is something I have discovered as a trend - the last time Dems won was 2008 with the competative obama v clinton race.

[Canis]

Moms Demand Action has given Cordray the "gun sense candidate" distinction. Don't really understand why, if I'm being honest, but hopefully that helps him in the primary.

Yeah, I've basically come around to voting for Cordray in the primary -- though I still like Joe better -- and he really doesn't deserve Moms Demand Action's (non-)endorsement.

ION: Democrats have a 25,000 vote lead in primary votes thus far. For those curious, in 2006, when Strickland beat Blackwell by nearly two-to-one, there were 800,000 votes in the contested D primary and 825,000 votes in the contested R primary; in 2010, when both Strickland and Kasich went unchallenged in the primary, there were 630,000 votes in the D primary, and 745,000 votes in the R primary; and in 2014, where Kasich was uncontested and FitzGerald faced only token opposition, there were 440,000 votes in the D primary and 560,000 votes in the R primary.

I'm doing a nice post on my twitter - and probably here as well tomorrow, which includes a Town-by-town map of the 2010 race between Corday and DeWine which took forever to create because Ohio never participated in the pre-2010 tigerline project and lack precinct shapefiles for the race. The fact that Rs tend to always have a primary advantage is something I have discovered as a trend - the last time Dems won was 2008 with the competative obama v clinton race.

Link your twitter if you don't mind

[Oryxslayer]

Moms Demand Action has given Cordray the "gun sense candidate" distinction. Don't really understand why, if I'm being honest, but hopefully that helps him in the primary.

Yeah, I've basically come around to voting for Cordray in the primary -- though I still like Joe better -- and he really doesn't deserve Moms Demand Action's (non-)endorsement.

ION: Democrats have a 25,000 vote lead in primary votes thus far. For those curious, in 2006, when Strickland beat Blackwell by nearly two-to-one, there were 800,000 votes in the contested D primary and 825,000 votes in the contested R primary; in 2010, when both Strickland and Kasich went unchallenged in the primary, there were 630,000 votes in the D primary, and 745,000 votes in the R primary; and in 2014, where Kasich was uncontested and FitzGerald faced only token opposition, there were 440,000 votes in the D primary and 560,000 votes in the R primary.

I'm doing a nice post on my twitter - and probably here as well tomorrow, which includes a Town-by-town map of the 2010 race between Corday and DeWine which took forever to create because Ohio never participated in the pre-2010 tigerline project and lack precinct shapefiles for the race. The fact that Rs tend to always have a primary advantage is something I have discovered as a trend - the last time Dems won was 2008 with the competative obama v clinton race.

Link your twitter if you don't mind

Now in sig

[BuckeyeNut]

Moms Demand Action has given Cordray the "gun sense candidate" distinction. Don't really understand why, if I'm being honest, but hopefully that helps him in the primary.

Yeah, I've basically come around to voting for Cordray in the primary -- though I still like Joe better -- and he really doesn't deserve Moms Demand Action's (non-)endorsement.

ION: Democrats have a 25,000 vote lead in primary votes thus far. For those curious, in 2006, when Strickland beat Blackwell by nearly two-to-one, there were 800,000 votes in the contested D primary and 825,000 votes in the contested R primary; in 2010, when both Strickland and Kasich went unchallenged in the primary, there were 630,000 votes in the D primary, and 745,000 votes in the R primary; and in 2014, where Kasich was uncontested and FitzGerald faced only token opposition, there were 440,000 votes in the D primary and 560,000 votes in the R primary.

I'm doing a nice post on my twitter - and probably here as well tomorrow, which includes a Town-by-town map of the 2010 race between Corday and DeWine which took forever to create because Ohio never participated in the pre-2010 tigerline project and lack precinct shapefiles for the race. The fact that Rs tend to always have a primary advantage is something I have discovered as a trend - the last time Dems won was 2008 with the competative obama v clinton race.

Please do cross post!

Of note: Ohio didn't release the partisan request of early votes until 2016, so we really don't know what the 25,000 vote lead means thus far. You are right about the general primary advantage, though. If we're not too far behind or leading by end of voting May 8th, I will be very pleased.

[BuckeyeNut]

Cruz has endorsed Taylor. lol

[Oryxslayer]

You didn't want a cross post, so I (obviously) won't post the whole 20 map story. However, the capstone is very relevant to November - the 2010 Attorney General Race by township.

[Badger]

You didn't want a cross post, so I (obviously) won't post the whole 20 map story. However, the capstone is very relevant to November - the 2010 Attorney General Race by township.

On its surface that would appear to be a pretty good map for a Democrat. Tough to analyze on its face where cordray went wrong, even acknowledging that it was a razor tight race. Completely bombed in the Southwest outside Cincy and Dayton perhaps?

[Oryxslayer]

Cordray did really well that year, especially when compared to other candidates. Strickland didn't come close in Hamilton, and tied in Franklin. Cordray crushed in the latter, matching obama, and tied in the former. Where he failed is his inability to keep the many Strickland voters in the SE from voting for DeWine - even though he did nice there for a dem.

[Ohioguy29]

On its surface that would appear to be a pretty good map for a Democrat. Tough to analyze on its face where cordray went wrong, even acknowledging that it was a razor tight race. Completely bombed in the Southwest outside Cincy and Dayton perhaps?

That's typical in Southwest, especially back then (Hamilton County is bluer than it used to be.) Southwest is the most Republican region of Ohio.

[BuckeyeNut]

You didn't want a cross post, so I (obviously) won't post the whole 20 map story.

On the contrary, I did ask for a cross post!

[BuckeyeNut]

On its surface that would appear to be a pretty good map for a Democrat. Tough to analyze on its face where cordray went wrong, even acknowledging that it was a razor tight race. Completely bombed in the Southwest outside Cincy and Dayton perhaps?

That's typical in Southwest, especially back then (Hamilton County is bluer than it used to be.) Southwest is the most Republican region of Ohio.

That, and it's DeWine's home region. If Cordray had won some Democratic precincts in Xenia and/or done a little better around Springfield, he would have had a narrow victory. Husted has played this election like a fiddle in joining DeWine's ticket, and they will be very strong in the Dayton metro.

Would love to see more of Oryxslayer's maps, but my guess would be that Cordray will need to 1: continue to overperform the Columbus exurbs, 2: make back gains in Appalachia, and 3: perform stronger than he historically has in NEOH. Strickland always underperformed that region, and it is where Ohio Democrats have always needed to maximize turnout. Hopefully, with Ted not on the ticket and a local on the ticket, Cordray pulls it off.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

On its surface that would appear to be a pretty good map for a Democrat. Tough to analyze on its face where cordray went wrong, even acknowledging that it was a razor tight race. Completely bombed in the Southwest outside Cincy and Dayton perhaps?

That's typical in Southwest, especially back then (Hamilton County is bluer than it used to be.) Southwest is the most Republican region of Ohio.

That, and it's DeWine's home region. If Cordray had won some Democratic precincts in Xenia and/or done a little better around Springfield, he would have had a narrow victory. Husted has played this election like a fiddle in joining DeWine's ticket, and they will be very strong in the Dayton metro.

Would love to see more of Oryxslayer's maps, but my guess would be that Cordray will need to 1: continue to overperform the Columbus exurbs, 2: make back gains in Appalachia, and 3: perform stronger than he historically has in NEOH. Strickland always underperformed that region, and it is where Ohio Democrats have always needed to maximize turnout. Hopefully, with Ted not on the ticket and a local on the ticket, Cordray pulls it off.

#1 is basically a given sincr Republicans are likely in for a NoVA in 2017-level historic beatdown in almost all of Franklin County regardless of the race (and Cordrey has a strong personal brand in the southwestern part of the county).

[BuckeyeNut]

On its surface that would appear to be a pretty good map for a Democrat. Tough to analyze on its face where cordray went wrong, even acknowledging that it was a razor tight race. Completely bombed in the Southwest outside Cincy and Dayton perhaps?

That's typical in Southwest, especially back then (Hamilton County is bluer than it used to be.) Southwest is the most Republican region of Ohio.

That, and it's DeWine's home region. If Cordray had won some Democratic precincts in Xenia and/or done a little better around Springfield, he would have had a narrow victory. Husted has played this election like a fiddle in joining DeWine's ticket, and they will be very strong in the Dayton metro.

Would love to see more of Oryxslayer's maps, but my guess would be that Cordray will need to 1: continue to overperform the Columbus exurbs, 2: make back gains in Appalachia, and 3: perform stronger than he historically has in NEOH. Strickland always underperformed that region, and it is where Ohio Democrats have always needed to maximize turnout. Hopefully, with Ted not on the ticket and a local on the ticket, Cordray pulls it off.

#1 is basically a given sincr Republicans are likely in for a NoVA in 2017-level historic beatdown in almost all of Franklin County regardless of the race (and Cordrey has a strong personal brand in the southwestern part of the county).

Right. And those are among the most conservative parts of the County. (Though I’d argue his strength is more southern, period. Grove City is more Southeastern than Southwestern.) He really needs to keep pace with — if not exceed — past performances in Fairfield, Licking, and Delaware. That shouldn’t be hard in Delaware, but Licking, and Fairfield in partocular, could be a problem.

[Oryxslayer]

One of the things that I took away from my map analysis was how much Cordray has a base in Franklin and the greater Columbus metro, not just the south county. His average race saw Franklin match Cuyahoga in margins at a time when dems were struggling to win the county. And if we compare to Obama (who did better then most of the Ohio 2010 dems) Cordray barely looses the county and crushes Obama's margins in the surrounding counties. I don't think Delaware is going to become a Dem county anytime soon, but Cordray's appeal to the metro + Clinton margins in the county could flip it in a dem victory scenario.

[Ohioguy29]

Update on the Rick Perales scandal. These texts indicate that he was planning to meet up with her in person, which contradicts his claim that the affair was texting only. Then again, they may have not followed through on the plans, so he could be telling the truth.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

This is damning. Kucinich should drop out.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/the-latest-kucinich-paid-20k-by-pro-syria-government-group/2018/04/17/7a264768-4288-11e8-b2dc-b0a403e4720a_story.html

It gets worse:
https://twitter.com/im_PULSE/status/986372134703419393

Not to engage in whataboutism (I’m tepidly pro Cordray) but I eagerly await everyone jumping on the establishment’s connections to the Saudi, Qatari, and Emirati royal/noble families, or to the Mubarak regime back in the day and no doubt the Sisi regime in the future with the zeal we’re all jumping on Kucinich for association with Assad.

We’re the imperial hegemon atm (or at least we were, and are a great power now). Really unpleasant people the world over want our politicians’ support. I should hope that we’re all not so naive as to judge Kucinich for merely backing a loser in the lobbying game of “Get Washington To Forgive Your Atrocities.”

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

This only makes me support Kucinich even more.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This is damning. Kucinich should drop out.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/the-latest-kucinich-paid-20k-by-pro-syria-government-group/2018/04/17/7a264768-4288-11e8-b2dc-b0a403e4720a_story.html

It gets worse:
https://twitter.com/im_PULSE/status/986372134703419393

Not to engage in whataboutism (I’m tepidly pro Cordray) but I eagerly await everyone jumping on the establishment’s connections to the Saudi, Qatari, and Emirati royal/noble families, or to the Mubarak regime back in the day and no doubt the Sisi regime in the future with the zeal we’re all jumping on Kucinich for association with Assad.

We’re the imperial hegemon atm (or at least we were, and are a great power now). Really unpleasant people the world over want our politicians’ support. I should hope that we’re all not so naive as to judge Kucinich for merely backing a loser in the lobbying game of “Get Washington To Forgive Your Atrocities.”

That’s a fair point, but there are plenty of other issues with Kucinich.