TN-SEN: Return of the Bredi

[IceSpear]

The guy who supported the pedophile is right. Anything that helps Blackburn with RINOs is horrible news for Bredesen.

Just looking more and more likely that Motormouth Marsha sends Bredesen to the Thompson/Bayh/Allen/Lingle/Kerrey/Pawlenty/Strickland retirement home/support group.

[Politician]

The guy who supported the pedophile is right. Anything that helps Blackburn with RINOs is horrible news for Bredesen.

Just looking more and more likely that Motormouth Marsha sends Bredesen to the Thompson/Bayh/Allen/Lingle/Kerrey/Pawlenty/Strickland retirement home/support group.

When did you not believe this?

[IceSpear]

The guy who supported the pedophile is right. Anything that helps Blackburn with RINOs is horrible news for Bredesen.

Just looking more and more likely that Motormouth Marsha sends Bredesen to the Thompson/Bayh/Allen/Lingle/Kerrey/Pawlenty/Strickland retirement home/support group.

When did you not believe this?

Never.

[Calthrina950]

The guy who supported the pedophile is right. Anything that helps Blackburn with RINOs is horrible news for Bredesen.

Just looking more and more likely that Motormouth Marsha sends Bredesen to the Thompson/Bayh/Allen/Lingle/Kerrey/Pawlenty/Strickland retirement home/support group.

When did you not believe this?

Never.

Unfortunate but true. I have always projected Tennessee as Leans Republican, and I've never really thought Bredesen had a chance. Retreas do not do well.

[KingSweden]

The Chamber of rich globalist RINO's? Yeah, going to help Blackburn turn out the rural base.

/s

Don’t see how it hurts her, even if it probably isn’t as massive a help as it would have been a decade ago

[Hindsight was 2020]

Bredesen with a FF ad https://mobile.twitter.com/PhilBredesen/status/1035234323199418368

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Bredesen out and about shilling for the hick vote

https://twitter.com/PhilBredesen/status/1035993511676399616

[Badger]

Bredesen out and about shilling for the hick vote

https://twitter.com/PhilBredesen/status/1035993511676399616

For someone who calls themselves the last of the blue dog Democrats in the cries so-called elitism in the party, you would be well-advised to not conflate the hunter vote with so-called Hicks.

[SnowLabrador]

This is going to be a very close race. Gun to my head, Blackburn narrowly wins.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

This is going to be a very close race. Gun to my head, Blackburn narrowly wins.

Blackburn should win pretty easily unless Dems keep their current highs on the GCB and probably improve on that even further. She is an even safer bet than Cruz.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Blackburn by 8.

[junior chįmp]

MYSTERY POLL UPDATE

https://www.twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1037793339154857984

[Zaybay]

Wow, that is surprising.

[MT Treasurer]

It’s Marist, so I’ll guess Bredesen +8.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

*heavy breathing*

[windjammer]

I think Blackburn will be in the lead, like Blackburn + 5. She probably quite consolidated after the primaries.

[Politician]

Guess: Bredesen +2.

It’s Marist, so I’ll guess Bredesen +8.

What is your problem with them? Walker being down by 13 isn't implausible whatsoever.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Ooh, it will be good to get an update on TN post-primary.

My guess is Blackburn will have made up some ground now that the primary is over, but this will be partially offset by the currently very good national environment for Dems.

I say Blackburn +1

[Tender Branson]

48-46 Bredesen in the head-to-head and 47-47-1 with Indies (if they even poll that one).

[MT Treasurer]

Guess: Bredesen +2.

It’s Marist, so I’ll guess Bredesen +8.

What is your problem with them? Walker being down by 13 isn't implausible whatsoever.

Sure.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Guess: Bredesen +2.

It’s Marist, so I’ll guess Bredesen +8.

What is your problem with them? Walker being down by 13 isn't implausible whatsoever.

Sure.

Regardless of that poll's plausibility (and I also lean toward that margin being implausibly large), it doesn't invalidate Marist's other polls or indicate a bias on their part.  Marist actually has a slight R bias (+0.5) according to 538.  They're a very good pollster, but even very good pollsters will get an occasional sample that yields an outlier result. 

(I'm sure MT Treasurer knows all this, and I suspect he's just trying to be annoying.)

[windjammer]

But seriously I'm surprised so many people think Bredesen is in the lead. Maybe I'm totally wrong, but TN Sen is lean rep according to me.

[MT Treasurer]

Regardless of that poll's plausibility (and I also lean toward that margin being implausibly large), it doesn't invalidate Marist's other polls or indicate a bias on their part.  Marist actually has a slight R bias (+0.5) according to 538.  They're a very good pollster, but even very good pollsters will get an occasional sample that yields an outlier result.  

(I'm sure MT Treasurer knows all this, and I suspect he's just trying to be annoying.)

Feel free to "suspect" whatever you want, but Marist has found very good numbers for Democrats in most races this year, even when factoring in how bad the environment is for the GOP. I’m not dismissing these polls or saying they’re inaccurate (we’ll know for sure in two months, after all), but there’s no reason to believe their TN numbers are going to be any better for Republicans.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

But seriously I'm surprised so many people think Bredesen is in the lead. Maybe I'm totally wrong, but TN Sen is lean rep according to me.

I wouldn't be surprised if Bredesen is narrowly ahead in this poll, but regardless, I think he is more likely than not to lose in the end (unless this and other future polls show him WAY ahead and above or close to 50).

It is possible that Bredesen could lead in all/most of the polls going into election day and then lose by a reasonable amount.

Bredesen has some characteristics of a quasi-incumbent (though not a recent one), and also in very general terms, in red states there is a tendency for Republicans to overperform polls on election day (and a tendency for dems to overperform polls in blue states). Even if other states break towards Dems late, that effect may be more muted or even go the other direction in TN.

[windjammer]

Alright, I was wrong lol.