Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Adam Griffin]

According to Georgia Votes, an additional 156,521 valid votes were cast yesterday (Monday); the accepted ballot total stands at 1,345,223 votes: 52.74% of total 2014 turnout. By comparison, around 83,000 people voted on this day in 2014.

Early vote totals are 156% higher than at this point in 2014 (down from 169% Sunday).

The white electorate dropped 0.2 points compared to Sunday. The electorate that voted Monday was 57% white, 31% black and 12% other (was 32/51/17 on Sunday). Monday's electorate was 56% female, compared to 60% on Sunday. 

Currently, 16.4% of voters are under the age of 40 (up from 16.1% on Sunday). On Monday, 20% of all voters were under 40.

Code:

White	785773	58.4% (-0.2)
Black	403636	30.0% (+0.1)
Latino	17800         1.3% (0.0)
Asian	17193         1.3% (0.0)
Other	120821       9.0% (+0.1)

Female	731195	54.4% (+0.3)
Male		580704 	43.2% (-0.2)
Unknown	33324        2.5% (+0.1)

18-29	100916	7.5%   (+0.1)
30-39	120384	8.9%   (+0.2)
40-49       188178	14.0%  (+0.2)
50-64       436481	32.4%  (-0.2)
65+         466963      34.7%  (-0.6)
Unknown	 32301       2.4%   (0.0)

[Rookie Yinzer]

Voted for Kemp today!  He will be a great Governor for all Georgians!  I see him getting about 50.5% on election day and avoiding the runoff!

No he won't. He has no plans for healthcare and has every intention on signing a RFRA bill and turning back every criminal justice reform Nathan Deal championed. Fortunately it will be Abrams getting that 50.5% on Election Night.

[Adam Griffin]

Not a ton of movement along racial lines, but better for Democrats than what could have been - especially given how many people voted today. The gender gap continues to grow just like in 2014 and the average voter age continues to decline as well. If there's going to be a non-white surge along the lines of 2014, it should be apparent by Wednesday.

[Gass3268]

I love it! Everyday the electorate gets younger, more female and less white.

[Adam Griffin]

Of those to vote so far...

65% of those who voted on Election Day in 2014 are white (27.8% of voters)
61% of those who voted early in 2014 are white (38.6% of voters)
51% of those who didn't vote in 2014 are white (33.6% of voters)

[Florida Man for Crime]

Of those to vote so far...

65% of those who voted on Election Day in 2014 are white (27.8% of voters)
61% of those who voted early in 2014 are white (38.6% of voters)
51% of those who didn't vote in 2014 are white (33.6% of voters)

So white cannibalization as compared to relatively more new non-white voters. Good.

Well, except now that I think of it, there is probably a higher % of Other (who are actually White) among those who didn't vote in 2014?

If so, then probably not quite as good as that would seem at first glance.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You can always count on IceSpear to come out in defense of the real victims here, rich people.

I like how you didn't respond to the actual point. Rich white men mostly want "illegals" in the country to exploit them for cheap labor. Kemp, like Trump, rails against them to cater to the actual Republican base in Georgia, the Racist GA Hicks.

Well you didn't respond to my point in the other thread, so that's two of us.

Anyway, this doesn't even need to be stated if you're not completely obtuse but there's a pretty big difference between catering to a group with campaign slogans and actually governing on their behalf when the election is over.

[Adam Griffin]

Of those to vote so far...

65% of those who voted on Election Day in 2014 are white (27.8% of voters)
61% of those who voted early in 2014 are white (38.6% of voters)
51% of those who didn't vote in 2014 are white (33.6% of voters)

So white cannibalization as compared to relatively more new non-white voters. Good.

Well, except now that I think of it, there is probably a higher % of Other (who are actually White) among those who didn't vote in 2014?

If so, then probably not quite as good as that would seem at first glance.

In reality, those numbers are probably more like 67/63/58, respectively - but the same dynamic (though with a smaller overall 'other' share) existed in 2014. Regardless, the electorate is considerably less white at this point than it was 4 years ago.

[Adam Griffin]

I got lazy and didn't update this for a week, but...not much in terms of meaningful change. I did notice that some of the more rural, whiter areas seemed to have improved for Democrats in terms of declining white share, while some of the blacker areas have become whiter (WTF Calhoun County?).

Anyway, over the past 7 days:

• Wilkinson & Jefferson go from white to black
• Chatham & Calhoun go from black to white

[Adam Griffin]

Now that we're getting closer to E-Day and are getting a fuller picture of how voting is shaping up, I'm considering the parameters that need to be in place for an Abrams win. In short, here's what I think needs to be the case before Election Day:

• The (formal) white share of the EV electorate needs to be 56% or under
• Abrams needs win EV by 8 points or more (currently, it's probably 4-6 points in her favor)
• The early vote needs to comprise two-thirds of all votes cast

Of course, we're only going to know 1 of these variables for sure prior to the votes being counted. Hitting all 3 of those benchmarks exactly would put Abrams 1.5 points ahead of Kemp; Libertarians tend to do a bit better in GA (meaning she'd be below 50), but Metz is very unimpressive and I think the competitive nature of the race is going to minimize third-party voting.

There is wiggle room on all of these (over-perform in one and you get some slack in the other 2), but I've considered what would be necessary in what is likely the worst-case scenario: a situation where Kemp wins Election Day votes by the same margin as Deal in 2014 (11 points). I'm actually thinking that - given the likely share of the electorate that'll be EV and the fact that the GOP is cannibalizing more of its 2014 ED vote via EV - the gap could be smaller this go-around, but there are no guarantees. However, I don't think any Kemp win among ED voters could produce a larger margin than Deal's from 4 years ago.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Did Carter lead in any poll the last week of the 2014 election?

[libertpaulian]

Did Carter lead in any poll the last week of the 2014 election?

Carter led by 2% in a CNN poll conducted from October 19-22, 2014.  Other than that, Deal led all of the October polls, and there were a TON of them conducted in Georgia.

[Gass3268]

I got lazy and didn't update this for a week, but...not much in terms of meaningful change. I did notice that some of the more rural, whiter areas seemed to have improved for Democrats in terms of declining white share, while some of the blacker areas have become whiter (WTF Calhoun County?).

Anyway, over the past 7 days:

• Wilkinson & Jefferson go from white to black
• Chatham & Calhoun go from black to white

Does anything change if you do white vs everything else?

[Alabama_Indy10]

Do you Abrams people think she has a better chance to win outright on Election Day or in a runoff?

[OneJ]

Do you Abrams people think she has a better chance to win outright on Election Day or in a runoff?

Tough to say, but I’ll go with Election Day rather than the runoff due to the difficulty of pushing a lot of low-propensity voters.

[Adam Griffin]

I got lazy and didn't update this for a week, but...not much in terms of meaningful change. I did notice that some of the more rural, whiter areas seemed to have improved for Democrats in terms of declining white share, while some of the blacker areas have become whiter (WTF Calhoun County?).

Anyway, over the past 7 days:

• Wilkinson & Jefferson go from white to black
• Chatham & Calhoun go from black to white

Does anything change if you do white vs everything else?

I've been lazily discarding the data collected by county each day (because of course I have), but yes: Fulton, Gwinnett and Chatham are some examples where white < others.

[Adam Griffin]

In ATL earlier:

https://twitter.com/MrGordian/status/1057409525953818626

[libertpaulian]

In ATL earlier:

https://twitter.com/MrGordian/status/1057409525953818626

DANG.

[GeorgiaModerate]

On the flip side, my wife voted in Forsyth County on her way to work this morning, about 8:15.  There were zero other voters present.

[Bidenworth2020]

On the flip side, my wife voted in Forsyth County on her way to work this morning, about 8:15.  There were zero other voters present.

interesting. What is her take on the races on the ballot?

[GeorgiaModerate]

On the flip side, my wife voted in Forsyth County on her way to work this morning, about 8:15.  There were zero other voters present.

interesting. What is her take on the races on the ballot?

She's usually not too political, but despises Trump.  Hated Kemp's shotgun ads. I'm pretty sure she voted straight D.

[Adam Griffin]

According to Georgia Votes, an additional 161,287 valid votes were cast yesterday (Tuesday); the accepted ballot total stands at 1,506,510 votes: 59.06% of total 2014 turnout. By comparison, around 85,000 people voted on this day in 2014.

Early vote totals are 147% higher than at this point in 2014 (down from 156% Monday).

No racial shifts of significance in total figures Tuesday. The electorate that voted Tuesday was 58% white, 29% black and 13% other (was 57/31/12 on Monday). Tuesday's electorate was 56% female, compared to 56% on Monday.  

Currently, 17.0% of voters are under the age of 40 (up from 16.4% on Monday). On Tuesday, 21% of all voters were under 40 (compared to 20% on Monday).

Code:

White	879488	58.4% (0.0)
Black	450986	29.9% (-0.1)
Latino	20221         1.3% (0.0)
Asian	19392         1.3% (0.0)
Other	136423       9.1% (+0.1)

Female	821969	54.6% (+0.2)
Male		646477 	42.9% (-0.3)
Unknown	38064        2.5% (0.0)

18-29	115635	7.7%   (+0.2)
30-39	139479	9.3%   (+0.4)
40-49       214852	14.3%  (+0.3)
50-64       487480	32.4%  (0.0)
65+         511866      34.0%  (-0.7)
Unknown	 36928       2.5%   (+0.1)

[Gass3268]

How many early vote days are left?

[Adam Griffin]

How many early vote days are left?

3 days guaranteed statewide, but I'm pretty sure most metro/urban counties will also still have Saturday and Sunday voting this weekend. There'll of course still be mail ballots coming in over the weekend as well.

We're on track for 2m+ early votes at the current rate...we might even break the presidential EV totals.

[Gass3268]

How many early vote days are left?

3 days guaranteed statewide, but I'm pretty sure most metro/urban counties will also still have Saturday and Sunday voting this weekend. There'll of course still be mail ballots coming in over the weekend as well.

We're on track for 2m+ early votes at the current rate...we might even break the presidential EV totals.

Thanks! Given that the more urban counties have 5 days, taking that last 2.4% off the white vote doesn't seem impossible, especially with what I imagine will be one final "souls to the polls."