BidenSandersWarrenVote here in the previous polls if you haven't already!FebruaryIA NH NV SC Super TuesdayAL AS AR CA CO DA ME MA MN NC OK TN TX UT VT VA March 10thID MI MS MO NDMichigan is still very close.
Special thanks to
Hades for the map of the territories!
On to my home state, Washington. In the past, Washington had a caucus with delegates at stake, and then a primary several weeks or even months later with no delegates at stake. This time around, there will only be a primary that does have delegates at stake. While obviously my analysis is going to be anecdotal, I'd say that Washington is definitely Warren country. Seattle is the kind of city tailor-made for Warren. It's relatively white, very well-educated, and very progressive. From my own experience, not only is Warren winning a lot of Sanders 2016 voters, she's also getting a lot of voters who have issues with Sanders and supported Clinton in 2016. There are also a lot of Asians in the Seattle area, and while I can't claim to be sure how Asian voters are going in the primary, I suspect that Warren is doing better among them than among black voters. The suburbs of Seattle are also largely well-educated, and Warren will probably play well there as well. While Eastern Washington is conservative as a whole, Democrats who live there are often quite liberal, with Spokane being a good example of that.
The only parts of the state that I think Biden would do well in would be Pierce (Tacoma is far less educated than other cities in the area, and somewhat more working class as well), and the Southwestern part of the state, in counties like Grays Harbor and Cowlitz. He could also win a few rural counties here and there. My guess for the county map would be something like this:
Of course, if Warren loses ground, Sanders may have a chance here, but assuming Warren holds her current position, she should win Washington pretty easily. Obviously her margin will be nothing like the margins Obama and Sanders got in the caucuses, but I could see her winning by about 15%.
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