Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[Mr. Morden]

http://thepage.time.com/

Gun owners — Clinton 58, Obama 42; College degree — Obama 54, Clinton 46; Made unfair attacks — Clinton 67, Obama 49.

[Verily]

Well, if the Ohio exit polls paradigm holds, Clinton wins by seven points, which was my prediction.

I will now accept my accolades. Or is that not subtle enough?

[Franzl]

http://thepage.time.com/

Gun owners — Clinton 58, Obama 42; College degree — Obama 54, Clinton 46; Made unfair attacks — Clinton 67, Obama 49.

67-49....ummm.....a little more than 100

[Eraserhead]

Well, if the Ohio exit polls paradigm holds, Clinton wins by seven points, which was my prediction.

I will now accept my accolades. Or is that not subtle enough?

Hey! I predicted the same!

[Alcon]

http://thepage.time.com/

Gun owners — Clinton 58, Obama 42

I wish they had a break-down on what they're pointing the gun at - crack dealers vs. deer. 

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

These Drudge early numbers always favor Obama. It's actually not good that he's 4% behind this early. Wasn't he tied in Ohio with her early on?

Foxnews has Obama doing a bit worse among highly educated voters, but a little better among gun owners than expected.

[Alcon]

http://thepage.time.com/

Gun owners — Clinton 58, Obama 42; College degree — Obama 54, Clinton 46; Made unfair attacks — Clinton 67, Obama 49.

67-49....ummm.....a little more than 100

It's a yes/no question for both candidates.

[Verily]

Ohio: (C | O)

College: 49 | 49
Attacked Unfairly: 54 | 37 (Ouch, this one went way up for both in PA.)

Doesn't appear to have been anything on guns in Ohio.

[Eraserhead]

Shouldn't Obama be doing a little better among college educated voters?

[ChrisFromNJ]

Black: 92 - 8 Obama
65 or older voters - 61-38 Hillary
White men: 55-45 Hillary

Does not look good for Obama.

That comes out to a near even race per my math, assuming white women went 60-40 for Hillary.

I have the women vote as 65-35 and Hillary winning by 4 (52-48)

Looks like Matt Drudge did your math too.

This is looking not especially unlike Ohio (before the polls close, at least).

Apparently so. This is my math

White women: 46% of electorate - 65-35 Hillary
White men: 35% of electorate - 55-45 Hillary
Blacks: 14% of electorate - 92-8 Obama
Other: 5% of the electorate - 50-50

Obama can do a bit better than this if black turnout is up.

[Verily]

Shouldn't Obama be doing a little better among college educated voters?

As I just posted, they tied among college-educated in Ohio. It's the post-graduates where Obama pulls away when Clinton leads by 10%.

[Alcon]

Shouldn't Obama be doing a little better among college educated voters?

Eh, that's about par.

College voters don't vote remarkably differently, for the most part.  Postgrads do.

Obama is on TV and he looks sad and just mentioned a ten-point loss.  Downplaying expectations?

Edit: Damn Verily

[Hash]

At what time will the results start to come in?

[Verily]

At what time will the results start to come in?

Polls close at 8 EDT, so maybe 8:20.

[Verily]

Shouldn't Obama be doing a little better among college educated voters?

Eh, that's about par.

College voters don't vote remarkably differently, for the most part.  Postgrads do.

Obama is on TV and he looks sad and just mentioned a ten-point loss.  Downplaying expectations?

Edit: Damn Verily

Victory is mine.

But I'm still waiting on the beer drinkers.

[Mr. Morden]

Drudge:

Women
Clinton 55%
Obama 44

Men
Clinton 47%
Obama 53

[Gustaf]

Right now it's 6 PM EDT, right?

[Verily]

Right now it's 6 PM EDT, right?

Yes.

[Torie]

Here is a post from our own Alcon on March 4 as to early exit poll results from Ohio:

Ohio exit poll:

Clinton 51.1%
Obama 47.9%

[Sam Spade]

I doubt that, in PA, other is 50-50, but I also doubt that we have sufficient numbers to measure this through any exit poll, so that is useless.

[Mr. Morden]

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/story?id=4703379&page=1

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[Lief 🗽]

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Well, that's a bit of welcome news even if Obama loses.

[ChrisFromNJ]

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Well, that's a bit of welcome news even if Obama loses.

Yup. Any time you see more liberals than moderates in these polls, it makes me very happy.

[Alcon]

Exit poll information ("FROM ACTUAL VOTERS!!!!!!")

Who will get the Democratic nomination?  Obama 54%, Clinton 43%

32% only satisfied if Clinton wins, 25% only if Obama wins, 38% would be fine with either.

Both numbers don't sound particularly good for Obama, honestly.

[Sam Spade]

Hmmm...  Is everything as it seems, or is everything not as it seems.  That is the question.