Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Lief 🗽]

The young showed up in the primaries. Why would they suddenly stop?

Keep telling people that this race is over and that Obama is running away with it. We'll be eternally grateful.

I've never said that

McCain is finished.

lol, I was making fun of JJ.

[J. J.]

The young showed up in the primaries. Why would they suddenly stop?

One obvious reason is living in a different city.  Perhaps 20% graduated and moved on.

[Iosif]

The young showed up in the primaries. Why would they suddenly stop?

One obvious reason is living in a different city.  Perhaps 20% graduated and moved on.

Do you lose your right to vote when you graduate?

[J. J.]

The young showed up in the primaries. Why would they suddenly stop?

One obvious reason is living in a different city.  Perhaps 20% graduated and moved on.

Do you lose your right to vote when you graduate?

You do tend to lose your residence.  In the US, you have to re-register at the new address.

[Lief 🗽]

The young showed up in the primaries. Why would they suddenly stop?

One obvious reason is living in a different city.  Perhaps 20% graduated and moved on.

Do you lose your right to vote when you graduate?

You do tend to lose your residence.  In the US, you have to re-register at the new address.

Yeah, good thing the Obama campaign didn't spend the summer and fall registering millions of voters.

[J. J.]

The young showed up in the primaries. Why would they suddenly stop?

One obvious reason is living in a different city.  Perhaps 20% graduated and moved on.

Do you lose your right to vote when you graduate?

You do tend to lose your residence.  In the US, you have to re-register at the new address.

Yeah, good thing the Obama campaign didn't spend the summer and fall registering millions of voters.

Some of those younger people registered at home, and forgot to file for an absentee ballot; some get the application and forget to file it on time because they have a term paper due.  Some graduate, move on, and don't re-register.  Some move to different apartment in another precinct and forget to re-register.  Those little things may have an effect, just maybe a few 1000 here and there, but it makes a difference.

[Lief 🗽]

The young showed up in the primaries. Why would they suddenly stop?

One obvious reason is living in a different city.  Perhaps 20% graduated and moved on.

Do you lose your right to vote when you graduate?

You do tend to lose your residence.  In the US, you have to re-register at the new address.

Yeah, good thing the Obama campaign didn't spend the summer and fall registering millions of voters.

Some of those younger people registered at home, and forgot to file for an absentee ballot; some get the application and forget to file it on time because they have a term paper due.  Some graduate, move on, and don't re-register.  Some move to different apartment in another precinct and forget to re-register.  Those little things may have an effect, just maybe a few 1000 here and there, but it makes a difference.

Those things can happen to non-young people also. 20-year-olds aren't lazier or stupider than the rest of the population.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The young showed up in the primaries. Why would they suddenly stop?

One obvious reason is living in a different city.  Perhaps 20% graduated and moved on.

Do you lose your right to vote when you graduate?

You do tend to lose your residence.  In the US, you have to re-register at the new address.

Yeah, good thing the Obama campaign didn't spend the summer and fall registering millions of voters.

Some of those younger people registered at home, and forgot to file for an absentee ballot; some get the application and forget to file it on time because they have a term paper due.  Some graduate, move on, and don't re-register.  Some move to different apartment in another precinct and forget to re-register.  Those little things may have an effect, just maybe a few 1000 here and there, but it makes a difference.

Those things can happen to non-young people also. 20-year-olds aren't lazier or stupider than the rest of the population.

When it comes to voting, history tells us they are certainly lazier than the rest of the population. Of course, we know history has never stopped you from making outlandish assertions.

[Lief 🗽]

And recent history, this year in fact, shows us that young people can and do vote.

[Dan the Roman]

On the topic of young voters, the biggest determinant is the amount of effort required. Many are probably already disenfranchised in many states by failing to register. Many will not want to face long lines.

The places I would expect the biggest push would be campuses in states with both early voting and same day registration. The combination makes it incredibly easy to vote, and given that at most liberals arts schools or universities Obama is drawing 75%+ support, its simply a matter of getting them to vote.

This is one reason why I never bought Maine's second district being competitive. It has a large student population, same-day registration, and early voting.

[J. J.]

The young showed up in the primaries. Why would they suddenly stop?

One obvious reason is living in a different city.  Perhaps 20% graduated and moved on.

Do you lose your right to vote when you graduate?

You do tend to lose your residence.  In the US, you have to re-register at the new address.

Yeah, good thing the Obama campaign didn't spend the summer and fall registering millions of voters.

Some of those younger people registered at home, and forgot to file for an absentee ballot; some get the application and forget to file it on time because they have a term paper due.  Some graduate, move on, and don't re-register.  Some move to different apartment in another precinct and forget to re-register.  Those little things may have an effect, just maybe a few 1000 here and there, but it makes a difference.

Those things can happen to non-young people also. 20-year-olds aren't lazier or stupider than the rest of the population.

When did I say going to college makes 20 year olds are "lazier or stupider than the rest of the population?"  I think this makes the argument that they are not.

Most 30 year olds, however, don't move from year to year.  He is my personal pattern.

Age         Number of moves

18                 1

19                 1

20                 2

21                 1

22                 2

23                 1

24-29            0

30                 1

31-35            0

36-46            0

[Nym90]

The young showed up in the primaries. Why would they suddenly stop?

One obvious reason is living in a different city.  Perhaps 20% graduated and moved on.

Do you lose your right to vote when you graduate?

You do tend to lose your residence.  In the US, you have to re-register at the new address.

A lot of them would've had the same problem in the primaries, though.

Heck, look at how high the youth turnout was in the Iowa caucus, which was held during winter break for the universities. The timing of the caucus during college vacation was something that I remember the media mentioning might doom Obama there.

[Nym90]

The young showed up in the primaries. Why would they suddenly stop?

One obvious reason is living in a different city.  Perhaps 20% graduated and moved on.

Do you lose your right to vote when you graduate?

You do tend to lose your residence.  In the US, you have to re-register at the new address.

Yeah, good thing the Obama campaign didn't spend the summer and fall registering millions of voters.

Some of those younger people registered at home, and forgot to file for an absentee ballot; some get the application and forget to file it on time because they have a term paper due.  Some graduate, move on, and don't re-register.  Some move to different apartment in another precinct and forget to re-register.  Those little things may have an effect, just maybe a few 1000 here and there, but it makes a difference.

True. And these are all good arguments as to why registration deadlines should be much closer to election day (ideally same day registration, which works beautifully in the states in which it is used).

[J. J.]

The young showed up in the primaries. Why would they suddenly stop?

One obvious reason is living in a different city.  Perhaps 20% graduated and moved on.

Do you lose your right to vote when you graduate?

You do tend to lose your residence.  In the US, you have to re-register at the new address.

A lot of them would've had the same problem in the primaries, though.

Heck, look at how high the youth turnout was in the Iowa caucus, which was held during winter break for the universities. The timing of the caucus during college vacation was something that I remember the media mentioning might doom Obama there.

Nym, in general, what time of the year to people graduate from college?

[Nym90]

The young showed up in the primaries. Why would they suddenly stop?

One obvious reason is living in a different city.  Perhaps 20% graduated and moved on.

Do you lose your right to vote when you graduate?

You do tend to lose your residence.  In the US, you have to re-register at the new address.

A lot of them would've had the same problem in the primaries, though.

Heck, look at how high the youth turnout was in the Iowa caucus, which was held during winter break for the universities. The timing of the caucus during college vacation was something that I remember the media mentioning might doom Obama there.

Nym, in general, what time of the year to people graduate from college?

May of course. Which is why I said a lot, as opposed to most.

Though I'd wager that the gap between May and December graduations is less than it once was as the percentage of students who take say 4 and a half years to graduate as opposed to 4 has probably gone up a bit through the years.

Would be interesting to see if youth turnout dropped significantly as a percentage of the electorate in the May and June primaries vs. the earlier ones as a way of testing your hypothesis.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's a good thing for Republicans that people who graduate college and earn B. A.s are too stupid to know how to re-register.

[Keystone Phil]

It's a good thing for Republicans that people who graduate college and earn B. A.s are too stupid to know how to re-register.

The point is that many people don't bother/become "too busy" to remember!

[J. J.]

The young showed up in the primaries. Why would they suddenly stop?

One obvious reason is living in a different city.  Perhaps 20% graduated and moved on.

Do you lose your right to vote when you graduate?

You do tend to lose your residence.  In the US, you have to re-register at the new address.

A lot of them would've had the same problem in the primaries, though.

Heck, look at how high the youth turnout was in the Iowa caucus, which was held during winter break for the universities. The timing of the caucus during college vacation was something that I remember the media mentioning might doom Obama there.

Nym, in general, what time of the year to people graduate from college?

May of course. Which is why I said a lot, as opposed to most.

Though I'd wager that the gap between May and December graduations is less than it once was as the percentage of students who take say 4 and a half years to graduate as opposed to 4 has probably gone up a bit through the years.

Would be interesting to see if youth turnout dropped significantly as a percentage of the electorate in the May and June primaries vs. the earlier ones as a way of testing your hypothesis.

That's why I said 20%, but some are June.

It's a good thing for Republicans that people who graduate college and earn B. A.s are too stupid to know how to re-register.

Many simply forget or move after the registration deadline.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'd bet any sum of money that does not equal 20% of Obama's young primary voters.

[J. J.]

I'd bet any sum of money that does not equal 20% of Obama's young primary voters.

I'll bet 20% of Obama's young (18-22) primary voters are not in the same precinct that were in last time.

[Ronnie]

Obama: 50 (nc)
McCain: 42 (-1)

[Lunar]

I'd bet any sum of money that does not equal 20% of Obama's young primary voters.

I'll bet 20% of Obama's young (18-22) primary voters are not in the same precinct that were in last time.

That's retarded.  20% of his primary voters have not switched apartments since summer, that's a bet you would be certain to lose.  Anyway, it's impossible to convince J.J. anything ever, so let's just go back to Gallup.

[Tender Branson]

Obama: 50 (nc)
McCain: 42 (-1)

[Rowan]

Gallup
RV’s
Obama 50%(nc)
McCain 42%(-1)

LV’s Trad.
Obama 49%(nc)
McCain 47%(nc)

LV’s Expanded
Obama 51%(nc)
McCain 45%(nc

No change the past three days among the likely voter polls.

[Eraserhead]

Did Gallup release numbers from the other models today?