Australia - 7 September 2013

[ag]

The main issue with Abbott is not policy. The main issue is that he is a dick. And not in a way that has any saving grace - he is merely a highly personally unpleasant dick. If you have a dick for a head, what are you? Right, a putzhead. That's exactly why the Libs now have a problem.

[RogueBeaver]

Here's Peter Brent's take on the honeymoon thing.

Polnut: This is just our running "primary cause of Lab's problems and its electoral effect" disagreement. We're in agreement on everything else. We'll find out on E-Day, I guess.

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd plans to scrap the carbon tax and move directly to ETS. To do that he'd need to recall Parliament, unless he wants it as a manifesto promise.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Rudd plans to scrap the carbon tax and move directly to ETS. To do that he'd need to recall Parliament, unless he wants it as a manifesto promise.

I was just about to post that, who does Mr. Rudd think he is kidding?

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd plans to scrap the carbon tax and move directly to ETS. To do that he'd need to recall Parliament, unless he wants it as a manifesto promise.

I was just about to post that, who does Mr. Rudd think he is kidding?

Just another gimmick in the Gimmick Premiership.

[Knives]

Lol, you libs are getting nervous.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well.. the CPRS was his policy and the policy the ALP and the Libs took to the 2007 election. As Prime Minister, he's entitled to restore his policy as it was when  he was removed from office.

The Libs are very nervous (and I know this for a fact), the issue was already neutralising but this is the new tactic... just wait for the Ads with Malcolm Turnbull advocating for an ETS.

Oh and the first Nielsen since the leadership change will be out later tonight.

A reminder on the last results...

Primary
ALP: 29%
Coalition: 47%

Two Party Preferred
ALP: 43%
Coalition: 57%

Preferred PM
Gillard: 41%
Abbott: 50%

What will be interesting will be to see if the Rudd hypothetical results in that poll come to pass...

Primary
ALP: 40%
Coalition: 42%

Two Party Preferred
ALP: 50%
Coalition: 50%

[morgieb]

And it's not like he's removing a carbon tax. He's just merely pushing the time Australia goes from a fixed price to a variable price forward.

Whether it'll pass the Senate though is another matter.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The Greens are struggling for breath... I was reflecting on how much of this political drama over the last 3-4 years is down to the Greens not voting for the CPRS package in 2009...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Nielsen is out...

Primary vote
ALP: 39% (+10%)
Coalition: 44% (-3%)
Greens: 9% (-2%)

TPP
ALP: 50% (+7)
Coalition: 50% (-7)

Preferred PM
Rudd: 55% (+14% on Gillard)
Abbott: 41% (-9% ... where Gillard was at the last poll)

Approval
Rudd: 51% (+15% on Gillard)
Abbott: 41% (-3%)

Disapproval
Rudd: 43% (-18% on Gillard)
Abbott: 56% (+3%)

... interesting thing to note, this is the first time a leader has had a net positive approval rating since Feb 2011...

[morgieb]

Hmmm those seem like interesting preference flows.

The fact that the polls have only got to 50/50 isn't great news for Rudd, but if they hold, it gives Labor a big chance they didn't have.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

A 14% swing in a month? I'd say that's fricking impressive. I think the ALP has some more positive movement in them... but it all depends on a lot of variables.

Again, if the polls look like this on election day, I'd be confident of a small ALP win.

[Knives]

Libs have recently spent millions I'd say on ads, they were everywhere tonight and they were quite effective.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Libs have recently spent millions I'd say on ads, they were everywhere tonight and they were quite effective.

They're scared s*%$less... their internal polling is showing what the public polls are and in private they'll tell you the game has shifted and it's likely to be a marathon all the way to the end and that they're "hopeful but wouldn't dare say confident now"

[Frodo]

So would everyone agree that we are looking at another 2010 in which the ALP pulls out a narrow win? 

[RogueBeaver]

I don't. Possible yes, but my opinion is still a Coalition House majority. Senate was always out of de jure reach per Green.

[Hifly]

So would everyone agree that we are looking at another 2010 in which the ALP pulls out a narrow win? 

I certainly do not, but I wouldn't mind being surprised. Tony Abbott needs to go.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So would everyone agree that we are looking at another 2010 in which the ALP pulls out a narrow win? 

Nah, I wouldn't count on it. I'd still put my money on a coalition win, but it's not going to be a landslide. (But then I don't think it would have been if Gillard had remained PM either)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I don't think we could say that yet.

I can see a Coalition majority of 7-10 to an ALP majority of 3-5, and everything in between, depending on circumstances.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Nielsen state by state

NSW - 50/50
VIC - 51/49 ALP
QLD - 51/49 Coalition
SA/NT - 52/48 ALP
WA - 52/48 Coaliton

... but not enough data for TAS

[morgieb]

Nielsen state by state

NSW - 50/50
VIC - 51/49 ALP
QLD - 51/49 Coalition
SA/NT - 52/48 ALP
WA - 52/48 Coaliton

... but not enough data for TAS

WA being close is very interesting. As is the South Australia margin.

[Talleyrand]

Nielsen state by state

NSW - 50/50
VIC - 51/49 ALP
QLD - 51/49 Coalition
SA/NT - 52/48 ALP
WA - 52/48 Coaliton

... but not enough data for TAS

What I find incredible about this is how everything seems to have moved closer to the 50-50 line from the 2010 election (obviously I don't expect it to stay this way but it's fun for sure).

Here is 2010 with the Nielsen poll in parentheses.

NSW- 51/49 Coalition (50/50)
VIC- 55/45 ALP (51/49 ALP)
QLD- 55/45 Coalition (51/49 Coalition)
SA/NT- 53/47 ALP (52/48 ALP)
WA- 56/44 Coalition (52/48 Coalition)

(On a uniform swing this would result in a 79-68 Labor majority according to Antony Green's pendulum, with the ALP gaining 7 seats in QLD, while a gain of 3 in WA cancels out the Coalition gaining 3 in VIC.)

Tasmania went 61/39 ALP in 2010, but polling pre-Rudd installation showed massive swings against the government in the state, enough to cost all or all but one of its seats. The only poll I've seen post-Rudd was the Morgan snap poll which had ALP at 63/37 in the state, so we'll probably have to reserve judgement on what's going on there, although I anticipate a swing against the ALP, simply due to the extreme unpopularity of the state ALP government.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.mediafire.com/?bvuy56rbfles39x

Just threw together a semi-interactive Lab-Lib excel swing-o-meter, with comments on some of the more notable electorates. Was just gonna use it myself for whenever election day comes, but I may as well post it here as well!

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/coalition-leader-kicks-own-goal-on-climate-20130715-2q09j.html

Yeah... not bright. If this was a gaffe, it's the old Abbott, if it's not then it's just plain stupid. Funny, when he was asked, well ... isn't the stock market the trade in the invisible? He couldn't answer it...

[You kip if you want to...]

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