Australia - 7 September 2013

[RogueBeaver]

On one hand everyone acknowledges its financial uselessness, but on the other... Rinehart. Not Laborites here but a certain segment of the parliamentary party.

[RogueBeaver]

Grattan interview with Abbott.

[morgieb]

Question: how hard will Labor fight the mining tax's repeal?

Depends on whether the tax does anything, which it sounds like it doesn't.

With the carbon tax, Abbott's DA policy just seems bad. While the evidence around a carbon tax is unclear, it's just sounds ridiculous and economically unsound.

BTW what is Xenophon's position on the carbon tax?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Xenophon support repeal, but repeal and replace. No one I know in climate science/advocacy etc etc takes direct action seriously.

[morgieb]

Xenophon support repeal, but repeal and replace. No one I know in climate science/advocacy etc etc takes direct action seriously.

Ehh?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Xenophon support repeal, but repeal and replace. No one I know in climate science/advocacy etc etc takes direct action seriously.

Ehh?

He's basically on the same page as Rudd... replace with an ETS.

[Platypus]

Every genuinely neutral outisde observer would think we're mad if we elect the Coalition, right?

[morgieb]

Xenophon support repeal, but repeal and replace. No one I know in climate science/advocacy etc etc takes direct action seriously.

Ehh?

He's basically on the same page as Rudd... replace with an ETS.

Fair enough.

Given the carbon tax is becoming an ETS anyway, that will make it hard for the Coalition to repeal barring an extremely lucky roll of the Senate dice (the right need to win 4/6 in at least two states, possible but unlikely).

[minionofmidas]

Every genuinely neutral outisde observer would think we're mad if we elect the Coalition, right?

If you elect the Coalition or Labor, yes.

[Platypus]

[RogueBeaver]

Coalition confirms they'll hold a judicial inquiry into AWU.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Oh for God's sake ... hopefully someone can look more into Abbott's anti-One Nation slush fund again.

[RogueBeaver]

Vic Fraud Squad has already seized Gillard's personal files from the period in question.

[You kip if you want to...]

Every genuinely neutral outisde observer would think we're mad if we elect the Coalition, right?

Well, Abbott more specifically.

[Knives]

What's everyone's view on La Trobe? Will labor hold?

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

What's everyone's view on La Trobe? Will labor hold?

I have that down as a likely Liberal gain, will post my predictions on Friday.

[Smid]

What's everyone's view on La Trobe? Will labor hold?

If the Victorian state election results were duplicated, it would be about 53% Liberal, on my figures (tally of booth results, plus a weighted average of declaration votes). That makes it a couple of percent more Liberal than Victoria state-wide. Of course, last federal election, it was about 4% more Liberal than Victoria, however it had a Liberal incumbent and now it has a Labor incumbent.

Over the past couple of elections, incumbency seems to be worth about 2% when you compare Upper House party votes with Lower House candidate votes (I say this because most people vote ATL for the party, and even if they vote BTL, they still start with the first candidate in the group, so I suspect they are more interested in directing their preferences after their preferred party), so this probably makes sense, especially as the state electorates that comprise La Trobe were predominantly Labor-held (one very small booth in Bass, the North-Eastern Liberal/marginal quarter of Narre Warren South, the Eastern Liberal/marginal half of Narre Warren North, most - certainly the largest and most-Liberal-leaning booths of Gembrook, most of Monbulk, a few booths in the North-East corner of Ferntree Gully).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

La Trobe is one of about 5-6 seats that I'm having a really hard time placing... Smid and Hugh can correct me, from what I've heard Smyth is a decent local member... which kind of makes me think she has a better chance of holding it than some think.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It seems that Liberal voters in Melbourne are doing some strategic voting, by voting for Bandt and many are ignoring the HTV cards... giving Bandt a decent shot at survival, which was always his only hope.

Rudd perhaps pulling through in some QLD seats thanks to Clive Palmer and Bob Katter and the Greens winning back Melbourne, thanks to the Liberals (again)... ah this election is going to be more interesting than people are giving it credit for.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If there is a baby Jesus/Santa/Tooth Fairy... you'll make this happen...

“@Kieran_Gilbert: Sources from the major parties tell me their polling suggests Sophie Mirabella likely to lose the Victorian seat of Indi @SkyNewsAust”

[Platypus]

It's a Spring miracle!

As for LaTrobe, it's in my handful of seats to keep watching before I lock in my final prediction.  It's borderline, I think.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's a Spring miracle!

As for LaTrobe, it's in my handful of seats to keep watching before I lock in my final prediction.  It's borderline, I think.

I go back and forth on LaTrobe... every single time I work out a prediction, I move it from one to the other column...

[Smid]

Another possible upset is Kennedy. I've seen editorials from two local newspapers up there (the Mt Isa something-or-other and the North West something) that say that graziers feel betrayed by Katter preferencing Labor, due to live export bans.

My prediction is "probably Katter" (in my predictions I'm allocating every seat to a party, but with four different rankings - "toss up" as in, I really have no idea but I'm allocating to this party; "probably" as in, I think this is who will win but I would be not surprised to mildly surprised if I were wrong; "confident" as in, I would be surprised if I got this wrong; and "certain" as in, I would be very surprised if I got this wrong).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Katter will get a decent swing against him... but I can't quite fathom it being big enough to flip the seat.

[Platypus]

I'm comfortable enough with Kennedy staying in Katter's hands, but Denison I would like to see more polling in. If the national mood wasn't for a change of government, I think it would be a lean to Labor, but as that isn't the case, I assume Wilkie will hold on. But it's all on gut, having done any proper analysis.