Quebec: April 7, 2014

[MaxQue]

45% for PLQ in Northern quebec?

If i live in Nunavik (Ungava) I would vote PLQ to defeat PQ

I HOPE Inuit and Cree territory going high vote turnout next month!
I dont want to see them low 28% in Nunavik and 16% in Cree communities......

They don't usually rush to vote. Quebec government is very distant for them (most services are provided by the federal government, so they don't really care about Quebec).

And, I know than some, which are usually voting, didn't voted in the recent elections. They can't imagine ot voting Liberals, but refused to support them, given the disaster than the last Charest term was for them. The government wasn't talking to them and was trying to impose them mining projects, refusing to fund housing...

There is a reason why QS polled over 10% in some reservations and than Liberal turnout was low. First Nations leadership didn't liked at all the Liberal government. I suppose they don't like PQ either, but for language and independance, rather lack of dialogue.

Ironically, most progress and talks between Quebec government and First Nations happened under PQ, in the recent decades.

[MaxQue]

How lucky I am.

I have a Conservative candidate in my riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Speaking of Ungava, my projection shows a narrow Liberal win there. Does that seem far fetched at this point, Max? I have the Liberals picking up Abitibi-Est as well.

[MaxQue]

Speaking of Ungava, my projection shows a narrow Liberal win there. Does that seem far fetched at this point, Max? I have the Liberals picking up Abitibi-Est as well.

Abitibi-Est voting Liberal is totally normal if they win. In every election since 1973 (but 2007), it was voted for the winner.

I don't see Liberals winning Ungava. There is no reason for Native turnout to raise dramatically (and from what I gather, they like the fact the PQ government promised money for housing in the North) and the Francophone areas are hardcore PQ.

Liberals had a strong candidate in 2012 (a long-time mayor of Lebel-sur-Quévillon), not this time (a white lawyer of Kuujjuaq). CAQ is presenting the former mayor of an Inuit nordic village, so inuit vote will be lower than usual for Liberals. I'm not seeing it at all.

[Hatman 🍁]

Speaking of Ungava, my projection shows a narrow Liberal win there. Does that seem far fetched at this point, Max? I have the Liberals picking up Abitibi-Est as well.

Abitibi-Est voting Liberal is totally normal if they win. In every election since 1973 (but 2007), it was voted for the winner.

I don't see Liberals winning Ungava. There is no reason for Native turnout to raise dramatically (and from what I gather, they like the fact the PQ government promised money for housing in the North) and the Francophone areas are hardcore PQ.

Liberals had a strong candidate in 2012 (a long-time mayor of Lebel-sur-Quévillon), not this time (a white lawyer of Kuujjuaq). CAQ is presenting the former mayor of an Inuit nordic village, so inuit vote will be lower than usual for Liberals. I'm not seeing it at all.

Thanks. Would you say Ungava is the kind of riding that is more about the strength of individual candidates (more like Nunavut)?

Anyways, here's my week 3 projection map: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/03/2014-quebec-provincial-election-week-3.html

It does have Ungava going Liberal though

[ottermax]

I met Luc Ferland last year and he was surprisingly knowledgeable and attentive to Inuit and Cree issues.

42,000 people.
16,000 Cree
12,000 Inuit

Part of the problem is that the Cree and Inuit don't vote in united blocks, and the turnout must be pretty terrible considering that they are semi-autonomous and very removed (physically, culturally, and economically) from Québec. Most Cree and Inuit do speak French as a second language I believe, so I don't know if they care much about separatism and language issues as much as Plan Nord and mining issues. PLQ Government was definitely not supportive of Native rights to land, and much more in favor of corporate mining development than PQ.

QS or an Inuit/Cree candidate could probably do well up here, but the cost of campaigning is prohibitively expensive in these communities.

[Hatman 🍁]

So, the riding is majority aboriginal, and it's plurality anglo and it's gone PQ in every election since its creation in 1981.

[MaxQue]

Speaking of Ungava, my projection shows a narrow Liberal win there. Does that seem far fetched at this point, Max? I have the Liberals picking up Abitibi-Est as well.

Abitibi-Est voting Liberal is totally normal if they win. In every election since 1973 (but 2007), it was voted for the winner.

I don't see Liberals winning Ungava. There is no reason for Native turnout to raise dramatically (and from what I gather, they like the fact the PQ government promised money for housing in the North) and the Francophone areas are hardcore PQ.

Liberals had a strong candidate in 2012 (a long-time mayor of Lebel-sur-Quévillon), not this time (a white lawyer of Kuujjuaq). CAQ is presenting the former mayor of an Inuit nordic village, so inuit vote will be lower than usual for Liberals. I'm not seeing it at all.

Thanks. Would you say Ungava is the kind of riding that is more about the strength of individual candidates (more like Nunavut)?

Anyways, here's my week 3 projection map: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/03/2014-quebec-provincial-election-week-3.html

It does have Ungava going Liberal though

No, it's not really about the strenght of the candidates, but there is usually a massive home and "race".

See, in federal 2011, a Green candidate won some Inuit villages because he was from there and Native. Overall, (go see the map on 506 website), the Inuit vote was all over the place (as usual, with Greens, NDP and Liberals winning villages, with often solid Conservative and Bloc scores). Cree reservations were over 80% for Saganash, a high-ranking Cree official, 90% in his original reservation.

In Abitibi-Est, in 2007, PQ candidate Wawanoloath won 50% in Lac-Simon reservation and 90% in 2008, despite being for independance. The candidate matters much with them (turnout is also heavily candidate dependant).

Through, the Liberal candidate this year is living in Kuujjuak, which may help it this community (the biggest and the capital of Nunavik, with with a significant White population). He is also on the board of the Nunavik housing corporation (which may help, but does people really know members of boards like that?). I expect very good results for the CAQ in Salluit, for the same reasons (former mayor).

[Hatman 🍁]

Chibougamau must be very nationalist.

[MaxQue]

Chibougamau must be very nationalist.

In the mid-00, Bloc usually polled over 60% there.

[MaxQue]

CAQ will have no candidates in Soulanges, Saint-Laurent and Westmount--Saint-Louis. The Elections Director rejected some signatures (they need 100) on their form.

CAQ said than some people who signed the forms were living in the riding, but weren't on the electoral register and than some people signed under their maiden name while they were under their married name on the register.

[Hatman 🍁]

They don't have until Midnight?

[DC Al Fine]

The question everyone wants to know the answer to: Will the Liberals break 90% in D'Arcy McGee?

[Hatman 🍁]

The question everyone wants to know the answer to: Will the Liberals break 90% in D'Arcy McGee?

Possibly, but I reckon the demographics may have changed too much since they days where they did.

[MaxQue]

They don't have until Midnight?

No, Saturday, 2PM.

[RogueBeaver]

I noted on Twitter that PKP has been this campaign's Payette in terms of intraparty damage. Fist pump as Yvette.

[DC Al Fine]

FTR, I think the Parti Conservateur has the most candidates of any minor party (assuming Option Nationale is a major party)

[Hatman 🍁]

They don't have until Midnight?

No, Saturday, 2PM.

Alright, then it's closed.

Candidate totals:
PLQ: 125
PQ: 124
QS: 124
CAQ: 122
ON: 116
PCQ: 60
PVQ: 44

[lilTommy]

More Labour support for QS:
http://fr.canoe.ca/archives/infos/quebeccanada/2014/03/20140323-162749.html

The Conseil central du Montréal métropolitain (CCMM-CSN) endorses QS over the PQ for a number of reasons (PKP, the last 18months in government for that matter)

Is this not the first big organized Labour group to switch or to actually come out in favour of one of the parties?

[MaxQue]

Is this not the first big organized Labour group to switch or to actually come out in favour of one of the parties?

The Montreal council for the FTQ endorsed QS last time, if I remember well.

[Hatman 🍁]

Leger has done a massive poll with lots of regional break downs:

Province wide:

PLQ: 40
PQ: 33
CAQ: 15
QS: 9
ON: 1
PVQ: 1
Oth: 1

Regions

Abitibi-Temiscamingue (185)
PQ: 47
PLQ: 24
CAQ: 13
QS: 13
ON: 1
Oth: 2

Outaouais (286)
PLQ: 49
PQ: 26
CAQ: 12
QS: 9
PVQ: 2
Oth: 2

Montreal (374)
PLQ: 50
PQ: 29
QS: 9
CAQ: 7
PVQ: 4
ON: 1

Lanaudiere/Laurentides (290)
PQ: 45
PLQ: 23
CAQ: 23
QS: 7
ON: 1
PVQ: 1
Oth: 1

Laval (294)
PLQ: 53
PQ: 27
CAQ: 13
QS: 6
ON: 1

Mauricie/Centre-du-Quebec (274)
PLQ: 35
PQ: 31
CAQ: 21
QS: 10
ON: 1
Oth: 2

Monteregie (280)
PLQ: 37
PQ: 36
CAQ: 15
QS: 8
ON: 1
Oth: 2

Estrie (282)
PLQ: 38
PQ: 33
CAQ: 13
QS: 13
ON: 1
PVQ: 1
Oth: 1

Chaudiere-Appalaches (285)
PLQ: 44
CAQ: 28
PQ: 21
QS: 5
Oth: 2

Capitale-Nationale (383)
PLQ: 42
PQ: 25
CAQ: 20
QS: 10
ON: 1
Oth: 2

Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean/Cote-Nord (269)
PQ: 43
PLQ: 36
CAQ: 11
QS: 9
ON: 1
Oth: 1

Bas-Saint-Laurent/Gaspesie/Iles-de-la-Madeleine (195)
PQ: 46
PLQ: 32
QS: 13
CAQ: 7
Oth: 1

[MaxQue]

Leger has done a massive poll with lots of regional break downs:

Province wide:

PLQ: 40
PQ: 33
CAQ: 15
QS: 9

Regions (from the front of the Journal de Montreal. Sorry, no QS #s)

Abitibi-Temiscamingue
PQ: 47
PLQ: 24
CAQ: 13

Wierd. I suppose than with number like those, PQ would sweep all ridings (despite the huge margin they will rack in Abitibi-Ouest)?

[Hatman 🍁]

Leger has done a massive poll with lots of regional break downs:

Province wide:

PLQ: 40
PQ: 33
CAQ: 15
QS: 9

Regions (from the front of the Journal de Montreal. Sorry, no QS #s)

Abitibi-Temiscamingue
PQ: 47
PLQ: 24
CAQ: 13

Wierd. I suppose than with number like those, PQ would sweep all ridings (despite the huge margin they will rack in Abitibi-Ouest)?

(Just updated to include QS et al). Yes, I think it would be. Weird, but at least it will mean that Ungava wont be red on my map.

Some comments:

For QS, it's a really weak result in Montreal, but some higher than expected numbers in the regions, like 13% in Bas St Laurent-Gaspesie?

Liberal strength in the 450 seems to be concentrated on the south shore, not the north. And in Laval, where they should sweep all the seats with those numbers.

CAQ still strong on the north shore, maybe Legault can save his seat?

Strong Liberal numbers from the usually strong PQ Lac St Jean-Cote Nord region. Couillard must be leading in Roberval.

PQ gains in the Gaspesie (i.e. Bonaventure) in recent elections must be no fluke with the numbers there. 

[DL]

They must have done a very disproportionate survey with a lot of weighting. They only did 300-odd surveys in Montreal out of 3,600 when the Island of Montreal is about 25% of the population of Quebec - if not more

[MaxQue]

They must have done a very disproportionate survey with a lot of weighting. They only did 300-odd surveys in Montreal out of 3,600 when the Island of Montreal is about 25% of the population of Quebec - if not more

They usually do one poll like that in every provincial election (sometimes two).

Good QS scores in regions isn't surprising, they even bothered to send either David, Khadir or Fontecilla in every region during the campaign and they have real candidates campainging in most ridings (obviously, more effort is put in the urban ridings) and are usually invited in local public debates (which wasn't the case in 2012). Even here, in Val-d'Or, there is signs with Khadir face on the poles.